User:Mangoleaves/Alternative for Germany

The AfD's electorate
When analysing the AfD's voter base, a distinction can be made between two approaches. First, it is possible to analyse which social groups vote for the AfD above or below average. Another option is to look at the composition of AfD voters by social group. This distinction is important if, on the one hand, the AfD is voted for above average by members of a social group that, on the other hand, only makes up a small proportion of the total electorate, which is why their share in the AfD electorate would also be low. All figures below display the share of the second vote in German federal elections.

Gender
The AfD was able to gain 10.4 percentage points among male voters in the 2017 federal election compared to the previous election in 2013. Among female voters, the increase amounted to 5.6 percentage points. In the 2017 federal election, 16.3 percent of male voters and 9.2 percent of female voters of the total electorate voted for the AfD. In the 2021 federal election, the share of votes for the respective gender groups decreased to 13.0 percent for male and 7.8 percent for female voters. Although the distribution of AfD votes between female and male voters has slightly converged in 2021, the AfD still received more votes from male voters among the general electorate. Correspondingly, two-thirds of the AfD voter base are made up of male voters. This is consistent for both West and East Germany.

Age
In 2017, 22.5 per cent of AfD-votes were composed of male voters between the age of 45 and 59 years. When looking at both age and gender, this combination was the most rewarding for the AfD. More generally, analyses showed that the AfD appealed most to middle-aged voters from the age of 30 to 59 years. Voters in this age category were more likely to vote for the AfD than for other parties. The majority of eligible voters under the age of 30 and over the age of 60 gave their votes to other parties. This trend, seen in the 2017 federal election, was confirmed in the 2021 election. In 2021, the AfD was repeatedly more successful in the middle-aged cohorts. More than half of all votes in favour of the AfD were cast by voters between the ages of 45 and 69 years. Compared to the 2017 election, however, the AfD recorded losses in all age categories, with the loss of votes being relatively consistent through all age categories.

Differences in West and East Germany
The AfD is especially successful in the five federal states and East-Berlin that formerly belonged to the GDR. The party scores almost double the amount of votes in East Germany compared to West Germany. In the 2017 federal election, the AfD became the second-largest party in East Germany. Among male voters in this region, the AfD even managed to become the strongest party with a share of 27.6 percent.

Similar outcomes were also observed in the 2021 federal election where the AfD once again became the second-largest party in East Germany with 18.9 percent of the vote. In West Germany, the AfD was able to secure 8.2 percent and was the third-last party of eight parties to pass the five percent hurdle. In two out of the five federal states in East Germany, the AfD became the largest party. In two other East German federal states the AfD became the second most-voted party and in the remaining East German state the AfD landed in third place. Among all age groups of the general electorate, the AfD won the most votes among 45- to 59-year-olds in East Germany with 25.8 percent. In West Germany, the AfD was most popular among the slightly younger 35 to 44 age group, with 11.3 percent. The AfD was least voted for by West Germans above the age of 70 years with 4.5 per cent of the vote.

Socioeconomic Status: Occupation and Education
The following figures firstly refer to the overall electorate. Between mid-2013 and the end of 2018, the proportion of AfD voters among blue-collar workers increased from 25 to 40 percent, while the proportion in other occupational groups remained relatively constant. In the same period, the proportion of highly educated AfD voters fell by half from around 40 to 20 percent. Among the overall electorate, the unemployed and the working class are over-represented among AfD voters. However, these two groups make up only a quarter of the AfD voter base.

A look at the composition of AfD voters by social group for the period from the end of 2013 to the beginning of 2016 shows that the majority of AfD voters were employed, were in salaried employment and had a medium level of education. In detail, at the beginning of 2016, the proportion of AfD voters with a medium level of education was twice as high as the proportion of those with a low or high level of education, while at the end of 2013, the proportion of highly educated voters was even slightly higher than the proportion of those with a medium level of education. The share of highly educated AfD voters has declined over time. As the party has evolved, increasingly people with a medium level of education and blue-collar workers tended to vote for the AfD.

Migration Background
Recent research on the voting preferences of the rather heterogeneous group of people with a migration background is sparse and only exists for the two largest migrant groups in Germany: Russian-Germans and Turks in Germany. A study published in 2018 concluded that 15 per cent of Russian-Germans voted for the AfD in 2017. In this particular social group, the AfD primarily recruited voters who did not vote in the 2013 election. In total, this refers to one-third of the Russia-Germans who voted for the AfD in 2017. According to the study, none of the Turks in Germany who participated in the study reported voting for the AfD. Among Russian-Germans predominantly the lower-educated and men voted for the AfD.