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The Myth of the Scientist and Engineering Shortage

In reference to the labour market, the myth of the scientist and engineer shortage is a largely debated conventional wisdom highlighting a supply shortage or a projected shortage of scientists and engineers in relation to their required demand, deriving from the lack of students pursuing careers within the science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) academic disciplines.

Throughout the 20th century, the myth of the scientist and engineer shortage has also referenced a shortage of supply in relation to national policy targets as a means of facilitating rapid technological advancements, as well as referencing an inadequate pool of highly technical engineers and scientists to make ground breaking progress and enhance livelihoods.

Early History
The genesis and development of the scientist and engineer shortage conventional wisdom largely stemmed from the United States of America. The first contribution to the promotion of science and technical knowledge was in 1790, where George Washington acknowledged it in his State of the Union Address, outlining its contribution to “the enlightened confidence of the people”.

Modern Development
The modern development and re-invigoration of the scientist and engineer shortage conventional wisdom largely stemmed from the United States in the 1950’s, as a response to the Soviet Union’s launch of Sputnik 1. This generated a fear of the possibility of the greater technical prowess of the Soviet Union, which was considered a matter of national security.

Following the launch of Sputnik 1, this ideology developed through the 1960’s, culminating in a 1968 research report, The Shortage of Scientists and Engineers, written by Hugh Folk as a part of the NASA Economic Research Program. This report greater defined the idea of a scientist and engineering shortage, and analysed the supply and demand markets to find that volatile shifts in technical advancements in the 1950’s created a shortage via excess demand, creating wage increases and job vacancies. In 1985, a National Science Foundation (NSF) study projected a doubling of Ph.D. replacement needs within the fields of science and engineering between 1988 and 2006, which further assured the existence of a science and engineering shortage. However, due to its use of supply-side economics, and that NSF director Neal Lane labelled it flawed in his 1995 congressional testimony, it was disregarded by experts in the field. Howard Wolpe, a seven-term US representative who led the investigation into the study and its irregularities, stated that the shortfall was projected “without considering the future demand for such individuals in the marketplace”. Despite this, the paper had already been distributed and had impacted the scientist and engineer conventional wisdom.

Following this, a congressional testimony of Norman Augustine in 2005 relayed a four-step action plan to ensure the global competitiveness of the United States, which focused on higher education. This, paired with the subsequent release of a consensus study report from the National Research Council in 2007, highlighting the need for “innovative enterprises that lead to discovery and new technology”, refreshed the scientist and engineering shortage debate, due to the reputability of the publishing organisation.

A follow-up to the 2007 consensus study report by the National Research Council in 2010, evaluated that the lack of response to the previous report has worsened the situation drastically, further elevating the shortage discussion.

Arguments For the Scientist and Engineer Shortage Debate
The combination of both reports conducted by the National Research Council in 2007 and 2010 regarding the existence of a labour shortage, cited the major argument cited for the existence of an scientist and engineering shortage as a comparison to the forecasted performance of the labour market in relation to international standards and national objectives, with the 2007 report highlighting a concern for “the future prosperity of the United States”.

A 2012 report conducted by the Royal Academy of Engineering also highlighted a shortage of scientists and engineers within the United Kingdom, predicated upon detailed econometric research. This has occurred despite wage premiums in many science and engineering.

Arguments Against the Scientist and Engineer Shortage Debate
There have been a number of studies conducted which suggest a lack of an engineering shortage within the labour market, particularly the United States labour market.

A 2004 paper focusing on the capacity and technical ability of those in the science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) professions found that from 1990 to the publication of the paper, found no evidence to suggest shortages in these fields, as well as establishing the lack of evidence for a possible shortage in the near future.

Additionally, a 2013 report by the Economic Policy Institute established that universities produced an oversupply of STEM graduates, with labour supply exceeding demand by “nearly 2 to 1”, with likewise performance numbers within the fields of science and engineering.

Difficulties and Shortcomings of the Debate
As the importance of science and engineering workforces highly correlate to national technological advancement and national security, much of which spawned the initial conventional wisdom, research has suggested that this has created a shortage of objective information.

Additionally, there is further debate on the on the meaning of a STEM worker shortage. Difficulty encompassing whether the labour shortage is in reference to a lack of supply in the labour market, or a lack of supply in comparison to national outcomes, dates back as far as 1968. Also, modern research has suggested the possibility of including all employers with technical knowledge within this worker classification, rather than just those with higher education.

Impact of Skilled Migration on the scientist and engineer Shortage
The H-1B visa was established under the Immigration act of 1990, which governs immigrant admission form employment in the United States. The employment levels as a result of this visa have been heavily skewed to the science and engineering field, and has created a discussion regarding a shortage in native scientists and engineers.

The 2000 US census highlighted that “24% and 47% of the U.S. SE workforce with bachelor’s and doctorate educations” respectively, are immigrants. This has resulted in a native shortage, with a 2016 American research report presenting the existence of a labour shortage of scientists and engineers native to America.