User:MatthiasGross/sandbox

'''The relation between GB and Europe

by the example of the country's position within the EU

"Ich sage Ihnen, dass England eine Insel ist. Ich kann nichts dafür und England auch nicht." Charles de Gaulle 1948

Großbritannien kennt keine Feinde, Großbritannien kennt keine Freunde, Großbritannien kennt nur Interessen! (William Ewart Gladstone, four times Prime minister of the UK, between 1868 and 1894)

"British interests first, second and last!" Tony Blair during the election campaign 1997 that made him Prime Minister of the United Kingdom

Introduction
Some time ago it caught my eye that the UK became member of the then European Economic Community (EEC) not until 1.1.1973 (together with Ireland and Denmark). From 1958 until then, only the six founding members formed the EEC. I read articles about the processes and steps in the 1990ies that led to fixing the exchange rates between the currencies transformed to the Euro at the beginning of 1999 (many people think that the euro was introduced in 2002, but that was only the notes and coins).

On my way during my Facharbeit, many other questions 'crossed my way'. Currencies, interest rates, political economics and economic history are complex and difficult themes. Some coherences or correlations are strong, some are weaker. Absolute truth cannot be found; there are mixtures i.e. of facts, history and psychological aspects.

I found out that Wikipedia is a good - imo unique - tool to enter a complex theme and to work in it. I asked my maths coach to give me some start-up help, i.e. how to create the 'blue links' within a text and how to create an own wikipedia user page. Most of it was 'learning by doing': if I saw an interesting formatting in an article (i.e. how to make a word cursive) I simply pressed the 'edit' Button and found the Control characters used to do this.

Having an own text within wikipedia made it easier for me to move within the theme when I revised it again and again (the links are similar to a Hornby that pops up by mouse-click if needed). I think the wikilinks make my text more informative for the reader.

I read a lot about the History of the United Kingdom, especially about the time between 1914 and 1945, the Postwar history and the history since the millennium. I did this inspirated by Gelfert who argues that history can form inhabitants of a country remarkably. There is also a collective memory that can influence individuals and organizations. Reading Otmar Emmingers book D-Mark, Dollar, Währungskrisen I was surprised how long and hard the UKs economical decline after 1945 was.

After the Guttenberg dissertation, one might make footnotes after every sentence - but that is not reader-friendly. A part of the many 'information pieces' collected here come from Wikipedia articles, counterchecked by google search. All used articles have Wikilinks in the online version of my Facharbeit.

Specification of the Theme
Europe is no precise term. It can be considered as a continent (then, i.e. Turkey is commonly not seen as a part of Europe); one can also say that Turkey as a NATO member is a part of Europe. There have been two Enlargements of the European Union in May 2004 (10 new members) and in 2007 (Bulgaria and Romania ); the EU now has twenty-seven members.

In this Facharbeit, I consider the terms 'Europe' and 'European Union' (or: area of the EU) as synonyms.

Position is a plurivalent word. Here some example sentences to show this: "In many political questions discussed or regularised, the UK is alone with its political position". "After years of blocking politics, the UK is not in a position to expect much voluntary concession from its EU partners." "The position of the UK can be described amongst others with the following data:
 * inhabitants: 61,9 M. (2010)
 * area: 241.930 km2
 * Gross domestic product (= BIP): 2.680.000.000 USD (2008)
 * Per capita income: 43.734 USD (2008) "

(for a comparison: Germany 81,7 M. inhabitants, 348.610 km2, GDP (2010) 3.280,5 bn. USD, per capita income (2010) 40.152 USD).

EU-BIP (average of the 27 member states): 25.000 EUR (2008), 23.500 (2009), 24.400 (2010);

UK-BIP 28.100 EUR (2008), 26.000 (2009), 27.400 (2010)

One can also name relative positions like "is the second wealthiest country in the EU" or name differences in absolute figures, i.e. "in 2008, the average annual income of an inhabitant of the UK was 12.4 per cent or 3.100 EUR higher than that of an average EU-27 inhabitant". Position lists are called Ranking.

Another kind of aspects can be shown in statistics as follows: the EU has 502,5 millions of inhabitants on 4.324.782 km2; the UK has 12,3 % of the inhabitants on 5,6 % of the EU surface. Comparisons like that can fill books; internet sites like www.destatis.de and http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu offer masses of data for that.

The Voting system of the UK
The Voting System of the UK is a Plurality voting system. It is also known as "first-past-the-post" (voters select only one option). One term of the House of Commons normally lasts five years.


 * in the UK, there is a stronger correlation between the position 'leader of a party' and 'PM candidate' in the next general election than in Germany. One example: Oskar Lafontaine was leader of the SPD (1995 - 1999) but Gerhard Schröder became chancellor candidate for the Bundestagswahl 1998.


 * even for the PM himself (or herself) it is an unwritten Law that he or she must win a seat in an electoral district..

A member of Parliament who wants to keep his seat in the next elections should listen to 'the man in the street' (also called John Bull), find out what people really think and fight for that within his party.
 * there are no Landeslisten (with more or less safe Listenplätze) and no Überhangmandate (see Party-list proportional representation) like in Germany. The British voting system privileges large parties. Coalitions are more seldom than in other countries; often, there were only two parties in the House of Commons.

"Die Labour Party [war]... durch die Wahlerfolge der Konservativen von 1979, 1983, 1987 und 1992 achtzehn Jahre in die wilderness verbannt [..]. Anders als im föderalen System der Bundesrepublik, in dem die Oppositionsparteien in einigen Bundesländern und gelegentlich sogar mit einer Mehrheit im Bundesrat an den Schalthebeln der Macht bleiben, haben sie in Großbritannien kaum Möglichkeiten einer politischen Gestaltungskraft. Ihnen bleibt nur, sich als potentiell nächste Regierungspartei zu profilieren. Das Problem der Labour Party bestand darin, daß ihr genau dies von 1979 bis zur Unterhauswahl von 1992 nicht gelang. Die Herausbildung von New Labour läßt sich ohne diesen Erfahrungshintergrund nicht verstehen."
 * Kastendiek wrote in 1999:


 * Obviously, a government change in the UK can change the policy of the Government quite strongly. Since 1973, there have been four changes between Tories and Labour Party: 1974, 1979, 1997 and 2010. Also an impending election can do this - especially when media and/or public opinion polls put a focus on a theme.

Multi-speed Europe
After weeks of reading and working, I finally found an important technical term that comprises much of my Facharbeit theme. The term is Multi-speed Europe (MSE; German: "Europa der zwei Geschwindigkeiten" or "Europa der verschiedenen Geschwindigkeiten"). 'Core Europe' (German: Kerneuropa) is a synonym for the group of EU member countries that practise the 'highest speed'.

"Multi-speed Europe or two-speed Europe (called also variable geometry Europe or Core Europe depending on the form it would take in practice) is the idea that different parts of the European Union should integrate at different levels and pace depending on the political situation in each individual country. Indeed, multi-speed Europe is currently a reality, with only a subset of EU countries members of the eurozone and of the Schengen area. Like other forms of differentiated integration such as a la carte and variable geometry, multi-speed Europe arguably aims to provide a solution to the dilemma between unity and diversity, widening and deepening of the European Union."

It did not surprise me that the wikipedia article MSE is better than the text I had written until then. The article is full of technical terms (sometimes with juristic background). I do not want to paraphrase its content and hereby ask every reader of my Facharbeit to read the MSE article first and then to continue here.

The Euler Diagram and the table shown in the wikipedia article give an overview of non-uniformity inside the EU:

This diagram

x - member c - conditions to be fulfilled before joining or candidate

The UK only takes part in two fields:
 * Common Security and Defence Policy  and
 * Enhanced_co-operation.

I guess both fields are too specific for my Facharbeit. The first field interferes much with the special relations between the UK and the USA (see also War on Terror since 9/11, War in Afghanistan (2001–present), 2003 invasion of Iraq).

The UK is the only large EU member country in the European Union that has kept its own currency, the British Pound (GBP). I guess this influences the relations between the UK and the EU at least since 1990, probably even longer.

Before 1973
The EEC was founded in march 1957 by six countries (Germany, France, Italy plus the 'Benelux' countries) that signed the Treaty of Rome. The Treaty became effective on January 1 1958.

At the beginning of the 60ies, there were negotiations between the UK and the EEC about an association of the UK. Charles de Gaulle, then President of France, vetoed British membership as a Trojan horse for US influence. The applications of all four countries were suspended.

De Gaulle was President of France from January 1959 until 1969. Georges Pompidou, his successor, changed the fench foreign policy. This opened the way for new accession negotiations.

Edward Heath (1916 - 2005), a British Conservative politician who served as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom (1970–74) and as Leader of the Conservative Party (1965–75), achieved acceptance of the accession in the UK.

Timothy Garton Ash wrote in 2006 :

"Ein Hauptbeweggrund für den Beitritt war ganz eindeutig "decline", also die Erfahrung des zumindest relativen Niedergangs. [...] Auch wirtschaftlich hat man in den 60er Jahren das Gefühl gehabt, die EWG der Sechs erlebe ein "Wirtschaftswunder", erreiche hohe Wachstumsraten, und Großbritannien werde zum kranken Mann Europas."

Ash also wrote analogously: The Leitmotiv of joining the EEC was the obsession of the UK elites that the UK should have and practise a 'world role' and thus continue a glorious past. They are worried to be one day only a little island across the English Channel. This obsession goes hand in hand with a will to have a "leadership role". George Brown (then Foreign Secretary (and Labour politician) said to Willy Brandt in 1967: "Willy, you must get us in so we can take the lead." (which was no Parody or joke). Ash means that Britains know very little about the EU, that they do trust nor their own newspapers neither the EU institutions; and they don't care much.

1973 - 1979
At 1 Januar 1973, the UK, Denmark and Ireland became members of the European Economic Community (EEC). This was the first EEC enlargement (6 => 9); others followed by and by (List).

Those who opposed an EEC accession mainly argued that it was better for Britain to stay a Sovereign state than to give parts of the Sovereignty to a Supranational union. A doctrine called Souverainism says that it supports acquiring or preserving political independence of a nation or a region [and] opposes federalism and approaches independentist movements.

Some hinted at the danger that the constitution of the UK might be hurt (predominantly conservatives); politicians from Labour were afraid that the EEC membership might block decisions of the British Parliament promoting socialistic policies.

In October 1973, the OPEC started to reduce their oil exports; the 1973 oil crisis began. The raw oil price quadrupled; there was a lack of energy in the UK. Many British companies introduced a Three-Day week because of that.

In 1974, there were two general elections (February 28, 1974 and October 10, 1974. The result of the first one was a hung parliament). Tories and Labour Party were both afraid to lose them because of beeing considered too EEC-friendly. Labour got only three seats more than the opposition in the elections of october 1974; Harold Wilson could stay Prime minister. In 1976, he retired. "His stated ambition of substantially improving Britain's long-term economic performance remained largely unfulfilled."

1974 or 1975, the Government ordered the Gallup to make a public opinion poll. The result was that 55 % favoured leaving the EEC. The Government made a big propaganda campaign and then a referendum on 5 June 1975. 67 % of the voters favoured staying in the EEC.

In 1976 Callaghan and the British Government faced a Sterling crisis during which the value of the pound tumbled and the government found it difficult to raise sufficient funds to maintain its spending commitments (see also UK national debt).

"The Prime Minister was forced to apply to the International Monetary Fund for a £2.3 billion rescue package; the largest-ever call on IMF resources up to that point. In November 1976 the IMF announced its conditions for a loan, including deep cuts in public expenditure, in effect taking control of UK domestic policy. The crisis was seen as a national humiliation, with Callaghan being forced to go "cap in hand" to the IMF."

Although some central banks including the Deutsche Bundesbank gave high volume standby credits to the Bank of England, the GBP reached 1,56 USD (1 GBP cost 1,56 USD), which was another low mark.

In the seventies and eighties, the core area of the policy of the EEC was the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP, "Gemeinsame Agrarpolitik"). Many saw the EEC in a deep crisis ("Eurosclerosis"). There was an overproduction i.e of butter, wine and milk. The EEC tried to adapt its CAP, but with little success: overproduction and expenses / subsidies stayed high.

The winter 1978/79 became known as winter of discontent. There was stagflation (= stagnation + inflation together).

On January 1st, 1979, the European Currency Snake (ECS) (Europäisches Währungssystem = "Währungsschlange") started. The UK did not take part. The Deutsche Mark had become an important reserve currency within a decade; the GBP had lost much of that role. There had been much trouble around the exchange rate of the GBP. The British Government also disapproved of taking part in the ECS calling it a step towards european integration going too far. Maybe they said this in view of the general election in May 1979. (Much later, from October 1990 on, the UK took part in the ECS. A speculation led by George Soros in september 1992 forced the UK to leave the ECS (Black Wednesday).

The Labour Government lost that election.

May 1979 - 1990
Margaret Thatcher became PM. She had been the leader of the Tories since 1975. Her governing period lasted until November of 1990; the one of the Tories lasted 18 years (Thatchers successor John Major also was a Tory; he governed until 1997). Thatchers conviction politics, economic and social policy, and political style are often in summary called Thatcherism. Here is not enough space to discuss how very much different Thatcherism was from other political programs. The following two articles give an impression:
 * The Iron Lady: how Britain changed under Margaret Thatcher (from The Guardian, 2012) and
 * "Die Alternative des Thatcherismus" written in 1999 by Kastendiek.

Thatcher critized the eurosclerosis strongly. Using the words "I want my money back!", she refused to be a net payer to the EEC. She argued that the farmers of the UK were not a part of the problem ov overproduction. After years of 'bulldog fighting', Thatcher got an UK rebate of 66 %.

Thatcher shaped Politics, Policy and Polity in the UK and the EEC. Similar did - more than other prime ministers in other times -
 * François Mitterrand (May 1981 - May 1995) and
 * Helmut Kohl (Chancellor of Germany 1982 - 1998).

In 1979/80, a second oil crisis happened; the oil price tripled. This contributed to make the 80ies economically difficult: risen energy prices induce (or even force) producers to rise their prices; risen prices are a motive for labour unions to demand higher wages; higher wages induce producers to rise their prices ... . It is idle to discuss what was first and what came second (similarly to the question what existed first - hen or egg). Price/wage spiral and Wage/price-spiral are both a kind of vicious circle and difficult to stop (see also Monetary_policy).

The strong rise of the USD between 1980 and 1985 (also see Reaganomics) has probably reconfirmed french politicians in their prefence for fixed exchange rates: all goods that were traded in USD (i.e. oil and other raw materials) became more expensive by the high USD.

1989 - 1997
Michail Gorbatschow who had become General Secretary of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union in 1985 had started Glasnost and Perestroika and created the Sinatra doctrine. This prepared the end of the cold war. In 1989, the Iron Curtain fell, and so did the Berlin Wall that was a part of it. In december 1991, the Soviet Union was dissolved.

Thatcher was against a German reunification and also against the then discussed Maastricht Treaty. Mitterand told Kohl he accepted the reunification only in case Germany would abandon the Deutsche Mark and introduce the Euro. Kohl accepted this package deal (even without talking to Karl Otto Pöhl, then Bundesbankpräsident). .

Mitterands compatriot Jacques Delors, the 8th President of the European Commission, had (April 17, 1989) published a plan ("Delors-Bericht") worked out by Presidents of the central banks how the Euro might be introduced. Obviously, Mitterand appreciated this plan. The plan was taken as a roadmap to create the Economic and Monetary Union of the European Union (= 'Europäische Wirtschafts- und Währungsunion' = EWWU)


 * the first level started 1st of July 1990 when free capital flow between the EEC countries was granted. After the prerequisites were created in the Maastricht treaty in February 1992,
 * the second level began 1st of January 1994: the European Monetary Institute (EMI); ("Europäisches Währungsinstitut"); (predecessor of the ECB) was founded and began to examine the financial situation of the member states.
 * the third (and last) level was reached on January 1st 1999 wenn the ECB was founded and the final exchange rates between currencies and the Euro were fixed.

Thatcher won her last election in June 1987; she resigned after the Conservative Party leadership election in November 1990. [John Major]] - he had been a minister in her Cabinet since 1986 - became her successor as Party leader and Prime Minister (PM). He should keep this function until May 1997 when he lost the election against Tony Blair.

Two months before, (october 8, 1990), the GBP had become member of the ECS (as mentioned above). Banks and other companies had urged politicians to do that; Major was Chancellor of the Exchequer at that time and supported this step.

Major emphazised that he was the first british PM born after the war. In March 1991 (half a year after the German reunification took place), he announced a new British Europe policy. He said he wanted to see the UK where we belong, in the heart of Europe. This was understood as a clear break with the Anti-EEC-policy of his mentor Thatcher.

In 1991, there was a recession in the UK. Most experts expected that Major was to lose the election in May 1992. Major obviously decided to be not too EEC-friendly and to show that in the negotiations for the Maastricht treaty (MT). Major refused to accept the word "federal" in the MT; he agreed to an "ever closer union". The english word 'union' has not the same meaning like in French and in German. During the negotiations for the MT, Major enforced an opt-out right for GB. The other countries later signed a self-commitment to become member of the Euro zone after having fulfilled the so-called Maastricht criteria. Major enforced another opt-out-right: the UK keeps the right to be free of the European Social Charter.

Majors election campaign succeeded to be 'with the people'; he was re-elected curtly in the general elections May 8, 1992 (the PM candidate of the Labour Party was Neil Kinnock).

When the Danish people rejected the MT in June 1992, this sparked the EU-debate anew - in the UK and within the Conservative Party.

In September 1992 ("Black Wednesday"), the GBP had to leave the ECS (see above). This also strengthened anti-EU-positions within the Tories. In November 1992, the House of Commons voted with 319:316 (!) for continuing the negotiations for the MT. The conflict within the Tories splitted them; this became obvious to the public and largelý contributed to their defeat in the 1997 general election. I guess that many British politicians then learned that in the long run, financial markets are often stronger than central banks.

One year later, many experts felt that this devaluation had had good effects for the British economy. Within two years, the exchange rate between GBP and DM rose about 25 % in favour of the GBP.

The first voting in the House of Commons about the MT (June 22, 1993) failed because of some dissenting Tory MPs. For the next day, Major held the voting again and asked (at the same time) for a vote of confidence. He won, but his authority was chipped.

Major lost the elections on 1st of May 1997 against Tony Blair (* 1953). His time as a PM should last a decade - until 2007.

1997 - 2007
One of Tony Blairs election campaign slogans was "British interests first, second and last!" (see above).

"Tony Blair richtete den Wahlkampf seiner New-Labour-Party im Frühjahr 1997 so aus, daß proeuropäische Aussagen so weit wie möglich vermieden wurden, um die europaskeptische, wenn nicht sogar europafeindliche Bevölkerung Großbritanniens nicht abzuschrecken. Wird es jemals gelingen, die britische Bevölkerung davon zu überzeugen, "daß britisch sein und europäisch handeln keine Widersprüche sind" (Klaus-Dieter Schwarz)?"

In October 1998, a 'shift to the left' happened also in Germany: Gerhard Schröder (* 1944, SPD) became the first chancellor who led a Red-Green Coalition (until september 2005); the era of Helmut Kohl ran out.

Jacques Chirac (* 1932) was French President between May 1995 and May 2007. "his economic policies, based on dirigisme, state-directed ideals, stood in opposition to the laissez-faire policies of the United Kingdom, which Chirac famously described as "Anglo-Saxon ultraliberalism"."

Blair won the general election in June 2001. After that, he secretly reflected to join the Euro zone. Blairs former 'European affairs minister Peter Hain revealed that in his autobiography published 2012. In the end, Blair did not dare it because his rival No. 1 in the Conservative Party was strictly against it and might have taken this as an opportunity to conquer Blairs post of the party leader.

In May 2004, the EU got 10 new members (eastern European expansion of the EU). The negotiations took years; as well discussions about how to keep the EU capable of acting in spite of new voting weights and the larger number of actors. This development was in GB's declared interest that preferred broadening to deepening. The developments since 1989 have moved the 'center' of the EU towards the east. Germany is more in the middle now; GB more on the brink.

Blair also won the general election in May 2005 (now with a majority of 66, no longer 160; the Liberal Democrats saw their popular vote increase by 3.7% and won 62 seats - the most seats for any third party since 1923). He was succeeded as Leader of the Labour Party on 24 June 2007 and as Prime Minister on 27 June 2007 by Gordon Brown.

2007 - 2010
Brown lost the election in May 2010. "''None of the parties achieved the 326 seats needed for an overall majority. The Conservative Party, led by David Cameron, won the largest number of votes and seats but still fell twenty seats short. This resulted in a hung parliament where no party was able to command a majority in the House of Commons."

Conclusions
I find it legitimate if the government of a sovereign state tries to maximize the advantages and to minimize the disadvantages for its country. Probably German politicians do not express this publically because of Germany's Nazi past. Win-win games can be fun for both sides; but often enough a win for one side is automatically a loss for one or several others.

I can understand very well why British politicians decided to keep the GBP (which implicates an own cewntral bank, the possibility to make an own monetary policy). I was disappointed when I had to learn that behind the facade of a 'Franco-German Friendship demanded such a high and uncalculable price for the German Reunification.

The Greek government-debt crisis and the Government debt crisis have risen the difficult question how far solidarity between EU member states can / should go and how it can be limited.

It seems to me that being not in the Euro zone influences the UKs position in the EU more than any other factor. Negotiating positions or governments may change - this will (in all likelihood) not change.

Albert Einstein is quoted with the words Um ein tadelloses Mitglied einer Schafherde sein zu können, muss man vor allem ein Schaf sein. The UK is the only large EU country that is not in this flock of sheep.

Weblinks

 * Bundesbank.de: Europäische Währungsintegration - Chronik 1950 - 1998
 * David Baker: Britain and Europe: The Argument continues (2001, pdf, 13 pages)

Media I have read

 * Otmar Emminger: DM, Dollar, Währungskrisen - ein ehemaliger Bundesbankpräsident erinnert sich, DVA 1986
 * Hans-Dieter Gelfert: Typisch Englisch. Wie die Briten wurden, was sie sind, C.H. Beck 1995, 2002
 * Numerous articles in the German and English Wikipedia

Media I could not get

 * Hans Kastendiek (editor): Länderbericht Großbritannien: Geschichte - Politik - Wirtschaft - Gesellschaft - Kultur, 2006, ISBN 978-3866490697. - out of stock


 * Gabriele Metzler, "Abolish the pound and you abolish Britain". Pfund Sterling, Bank of England und britische Identität im 20. Jahrhundert, in: Bernhard Löffler (Hrsg.), Die kulturelle Seite der Währung. Europäische Währungskulturen, Geldwerterfahrungen und Notenbanksysteme im 20. Jahrhundert, München 2010, S. 169-197.

Appendix I
[[File:Multispeed European Union 2011.png|thumb|right|Multispeed European Union 2011:

EU countries integrated in all areas (blue)

EU countries with exceptions (green)

and non-EU countries integrated in the

Single Market and Schengen (green-yellow) ]]

Appendix II
This diagram

x - member c - conditions to be fulfilled before joining or candidate

The abbreviations (in the first and last line) stand for
 * CSDP = Common Security and Defence Policy
 * AFSJ = Area of freedom, security and justice
 * CFR = Charter of Fundamental Rights of the European Union
 * PRÜM = Prüm Convention
 * Symbols Symbols_of_Europe
 * Divorce = Enhanced_co-operation#Divorce_law
 * Patent = Enhanced_co-operation
 * Schengen = Schengen Area
 * Euro = Eurozone