User:Mbrown2098/Tipping points in the climate system

Early warning signals[ edit]
For some of the tipping points described above, it may be possible to detect whether that part of the climate system is getting closer to a tipping point; however, detection can note only that abrupt changes are likely, while predicting when and where they will occur remains difficult. A premier mode of detection for these warning signals is through natural archives like sediments, ice caps, and tree rings, where past changes in climate can be observed. All parts of the climate system are sometimes disturbed by weather events. After the disruption, the system moves back to its equilibrium. A storm may damage sea ice, which grows back after the storm has passed. If a system is getting closer to tipping, this restoration to its normal state might take increasingly longer, which can be used as a warning sign of tipping.

Changes in the Arctic[ edit]
A more regional tipping point may have already been reached in the form of a mass recession of Arctic sea ice. According to scientist Ron Lindsay at the University of Washington Applied Physics Laboratory, a tipping point in the Arctic materializes as a positive feedback loop, where "increased summer melt means decreased winter growth and then even more melting the next summer, and so on." The loss of Arctic sea ice, while detrimental to the region, also holds severe consequences for the rest of the globe. Critically important is the role of sea ice in increasing the Earth's albedo, or reflectivity. Sea ice has an albedo level of 0.5 to 0.7, reflecting fifty to seventy percent of incoming energy, while the ocean beneath has an albedo of only .06, reflecting only six percent of incoming energy. As sea ice decreases and exposes the less reflective ocean, albedo decreases across the region. Summer sea ice is of particular importance, reflecting approximately fifty percent of incoming radiation back into space at a time when there is already an increase in daylight in the Arctic. NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) notes that in September of 2019, "the sea ice cover reached its annual summer minimum, tying with 2007 and 2016 for second-smallest on record."