User:Mdrossi

Poker Odds for the Flop - Determining Odds Variables for Texas Hold'em

1. When you pull two cards out of the deck there are exactly 19,600 different flops that can come up. This means that the chances of flopping any three exact cards you name are 16,599 to 1.

2. If those two cards you hold are a pocket pair, you will flop four-of-a-kind .245% (.00245) of the time. Odds: 407.16 to 1.

3. With a pocket pair you also will flop a full house .980% of the time. Odds: 101.04 to 1. And one-fourth of the time the set (three-of-a-kind) will flop, bringing attention to you full house.

4. Holding a pocket pair, you will also flop four to a straight 2.612% of the time. Odds: 37.28 to 1.

5. And if you hold a pocket pair, you will flop another pair 16.163% of the time. Odds: 5.18 to 1.

Now these are the flop odds against the standard 52 card deck with you holding the only 2-card hand.

6. Now, when your hand IS NOT a pair, you will flop four-of-a-kind .000102% of the time. Odds: 9,802.92 to 1. You only have two flops out of 19,600 that CAN give you four-of-a-kind. For example, if you held AK, only one flop would be the other three aces, and only one flop would be the other three kings. Holding AK does have it's risks.

7. When your hand is not a pair, you will flop a full house .092% of the time. Odds: 1,085.95 to 1.

8. When your not holding a pair, you will flop a straight anywhere between .327% and 1.306% of the time depending on whether you hold AK (where only a 10, jack and queen will help you) or 98 (where flops of Q J 10, J 10 7, 10 7 6, and 7 6 5 will help you. Odds: 304.81 to 1 and 75.56 to 1.

9. If your hand is not a pair, you will flop three-of-a-kind 1.57% of the time. Odds: 62.69 to 1. One-seventh of the time, though the three-of-a-kind will be on the board. So, when you hold a hand like K J, you'll get two more kings or jacks on the flop 1.347% of the time (6/7 of 1.57%). Odds: 53.59 to 1.

10. When your hand is not a pair, you will flop two pair 4.014% of the time. Odds: 23.91 to 1. Exactly one-half of the time and one of the pairs will be on the board.

11. When you do not hold a pair, you will flop one pair 40.408% of the time. Odds: 1.47 to 1. One-third of these pairs will be on the board and not paired with any of your hole cards. Meaning that you will flop a pair with one of your hole cards 26.939% of the time. Odds: 2.71 to 1.

12. If your hole cards are suited, you will flop a flush .837% of the time. Odds: 118.47 to 1.

13. If your hole cards are suited, you will flop a four-flush 10.944% of the time. Odds: 8.13 to 1.

14. If your hole cards are suited, you will flop a four-flush 2.245% of the time. Odds: 43.54 to 1.

source: http://www.FreePokerTraining.com