User:Mike Young/Sandbox15

=Forecast of Libya from 6th October 2011=

Assumption: Split amongst NTC fighters (Spilt most extreme in Tripoli)
 * Split into two groups on religious and geographic grounds, an extreme and less extreme
 * Split between Salafists (from Misrata) and less extreme Maliki School (Libyan Muslim Brotherhood) backed by fighters from the north (Zintan).
 * Abdul Hakim Balhadj (Libyan Muslim Brotherhood) sides on Maliki (less extreme) side
 * Ali Salabi sides with more extreme faction
 * Libyan Muslim Brotherhood have more support from NTC and denounce violence against the NTC
 * Misratah Salafists also denounce violence against the NTC
 * However “Grass roots” terrorism (acts by individuals without the control or support of the leadership of any of the parties) starts up
 * Starts in Tripoli
 * Targeting of NTC, rather than western, assets
 * Foreign Volunteers (e.g. from AQIM) also to take part
 * One of the effects of this is that the abuse of suspected mercenaries continues
 * NTC energies spent on negotiations with the parties over definition of what a “Good” Islamic state is with “Moderate” Sharia Law using “Islamic Principles”, rather than with the West
 * However, the NTC remain keen for the new state to keep the trust of the West
 * The West’s views against Sharia law harden…
 * BUT despite this the West still steers clear of actually of officially demanding the end of Sharia law, or bargaining about the “Sharia Law” card
 * Brotherhood invited to work alongside the NTC
 * Salafists continue to refuse to disband Militias before war is won
 * There is an agreement to integrate militias into security apparatus (as in Afghanistan)
 * Salafist miltias integrated
 * Libyan Muslim Brotherhood forces integrated
 * The West accuses the NTC of making decisions that it has no authority to make (such as the decision to implement Sharia Law)
 * There is an eventual agreement that Sharia law will be decided on a local basis, via referenda etc. after or alongside the elections This will means that some geographical areas inside Libya may have a different interpretation of Sharia law to others (or indeed not have Sharia Law at all)
 * The West formally asks NTC to recognize Israel
 * The NTC refuses
 * Attitudes towards revenge on Gaddafi and his allies soften
 * The NTC sets up of a “Truth and Reconciliation” committee
 * Looking at things in the Gaddafi era only
 * Under UN supervision
 * With no punishment for Gaddafi era crimes
 * The NTC draws up detailed time line for elections
 * Under UN supervision
 * Salafists are brought into negotiations
 * And feel less likely to endorse violent means to achieve their ends as they are involved
 * Bani Walid not attacked
 * Peace declared whilst Bani Walid still holds out
 * NATO gives support to the NTC (Misratah Salafist) fighters attempting to capture Sirte
 * With the agreement of the UN
 * The support in the orm of Close Air Support
 * Sirte falls
 * Before Bani Walid
 * UK sends trade delegation
 * Aid “linked to” success of this trade delegation