User:Moonraker/2020


 * Statewide opinion polling for the 2020 United States presidential election
 * Nationwide opinion polling for the 2020 United States presidential election
 * Texas at fivethirtyeight.com

Tallies

 * 16 Rock Solid Republican: 100 electors
 * 16 Rock Solid Democratic: 181 electors
 * 4 Fairly Solid PI Republican States: 26 electors
 * 6 Fairly Solid PI Democratic States: 47 electors
 * R: 100 + 26 = 126
 * D: 181 + 47 = 228
 * Swing states: 183 electors

Scenarios for swing states

 * Trump only holds Texas, Ohio, and Iowa: Result R: 100 + 26 + 62 = 188 D: 181 + 47 + 121 = 349... Biden wins
 * Biden only wins Michigan 16, New Hampshire 4, Wisconsin 10, Pennsylvania 20: Result R: 100 + 26 + 133 = 259 D: 181 + 47 + 50 = 278... Biden wins

Texas notes

 * 2016 United States presidential election in Texas Percentages 2016: Trump 52.23%,	Clinton 43.24%
 * US Percentages 2016: Trump 46.1%,	Clinton 48.2%
 * Nationwide opinion polling for the 2020 United States presidential election at 12 July 2020: Trump 45.1%, Biden 54.9%

New Mexico notes

 * 2016 United States presidential election in New Mexico: Percentages 2016: Trump 40.04, Clinton 48.26
 * US Percentages 2016: Trump 46.1%,	Clinton 48.2%
 * Nationwide opinion polling for the 2020 United States presidential election: Trump 45.1%, Biden 54.9%

Nevada notes

 * 2016 United States presidential election in Nevada: Percentages 2016: Trump 45.50, Clinton 47.92
 * US Percentages 2016: Trump 46.1%,	Clinton 48.2%
 * Nationwide opinion polling for the 2020 United States presidential election: Trump 45.1%, Biden 54.9%

Fairly Solid Republican States

 * Alaska 	(R Lead 2016 14.7)	now at 1/6 for R
 * Arkansas 	(R Lead 2016 26.9)	now at 1/33 for R
 * Indiana 	R Lead 2016 19.0) now at 1/33 for R
 * Utah          R Lead 2016 c. 25) now at 1/25 for R

Forthcoming

 * Unibet
 * https://www.unibet.co.uk/betting/sports/drill-down/politics (United Kingdom, Australia, Denmark, European Union, France, Germany, Norway, Sweden)
 * 31 Oct 2020: 2020 Queensland state election
 * 3 Nov 2020: US presidential election
 * 3 Nov 2020: US Senate & HoR elections
 * 13 Mar 2021: West Australia Election
 * 13 Sep 2021: Norwegian General Election
 * 1 Oct 2021: German Federal Election
 * 18 Mar 2022: South Australia State Election
 * 7 May 2022: French Presidential Election
 * 1 Sep 2022: Swedish General Election
 * 26 Nov 2022: Victoria State Election
 * 1 Jan 2023: Danish General Election
 * 1 December 2024: UK general election


 * PP
 * https://www.paddypower.com/politics
 * 15 & 29 November 2020: 2020 Rio de Janeiro mayoral election (Eduardo Paes 1/7)
 * 6 May 2021: 2021 London mayoral election (Khan 1/5)
 * 6 May 2021: 2021 Welsh Assembly Elections - Most Seats (2021 Senedd election) (Labour 3/10)
 * Next German Chancellor after Angela Merkel (see 2021 Christian Democratic Union of Germany leadership election, odds as at 8 Nov 2020)
 * Friedrich Merz (CDU, 1955) 7/4
 * Markus Söder (CSU, 1967) 11/4
 * Armin Laschet (CDU, 1961) 7/2
 * Robert Habeck (Alliance 90/Greens, 1969) 4/1
 * Norbert Röttgen (CDU, 1965) 12/1
 * Daniel Günther (CDU, 1973) 25/1
 * Alice Weidel (AfD, 1979) 25/1
 * Ralph Brinkhaus (CDU, 1968) 25/1
 * Julia Klöckner (CDU, 1972) 33/1
 * Wolfgang Schäuble (CDU, 1942) 33/1
 * Peter Altmaier (CDU, 1958) 40/1
 * Ursula von der Leyen (CDU, 1958), 50/1
 * Martin Sonneborn (Die PARTEI, 1965), 50/1