User:Morgan Wick/Politics

Welcome to the Morgan Wick Election Center! On election night, turn here for BETTER coverage than the networks. I won't project a winner until I have a good reason to project it. Even then, a winner isn't completely confirmed until it's been checked against OBJECTIVE formulas: When confirmation occurs in a 2-man race, L% * P = (1 - L%) * P + (1 - P) L% * P = P - L% * P + 1 - P         = 1 - L% * P 2L% * P = 1 L% * P = .5, the formula for majority confirmation. Q.E.D. If you have any suggestions for how I can contribute to Wikipedia pages on politics, bring it up on the talk page of either this page or my overall talk page.
 * Auto projection occurs when the second-place candidate would not lead the current leader if you added the percentage of precincts not reporting to the second-place candidate's current percentage of votes. It is very easy to calculate. For example, if a candidate is leading 60%-40%, he has a 20% lead. Thus, the percentage of precincts reporting must be greater than 80% for auto projection.
 * Confirmation assumes all precincts are the same size, and thus percentage of precincts reporting is percentage of votes reported. This assumption allows me to confirm the precise moment when a lead becomes insurmountable. It is determined by multiplying both the leader's and second-place candidate's percentages by the percentage of precincts reporting, and then repeating the auto projection test. For example, if a candidate is leading 60%-40% and 80% of the precincts are reporting, he only has 48% of the total vote. His opponent has 32% and, conceivably, can win all the unreported votes, reach 52% and therefore can win. It's not incredibly likely, and in fact the chances of it happening are astronomical, but it's worth keeping in mind. Think of it as a parallel to "magic numbers" and "clinching" playoff spots in sports. Majority confirmation occurs when the leader's percentage, multiplied by the percentage of precincts reporting, is still greater than 50%; in other words, the candidate has already won a majority of the total vote. In two-man races and binary votes such as ballot inititaves, the two types of confirmation are one and the same: