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In Italy, the impacts of climate change are currently being felt on a local level, as the country is in the front line when it comes to its affects. With an increase in extreme events such as rising temperatures, more frequent flooding, an increase in extreme weather events, etc., Italy faces many challenges due to their close proximity to the Mediterranean sea.

One such case of the impact of climate change is the need for the preservation of the well known coastal city of Venice, which is destined to disappear in the coming years if the predicted scenarios become a reality. The economic, social, and environmental impacts that climate change creates, and an increasingly problematic death toll from the health risks that come with climate change will be a great challenge for Italy along with the rest of the world in the decades to come.

Italy is not the first nation to implement action plans and has been timid on this issue for years. But as a result of the impacts of climate change that affect it in particular, Italy is taking this challenge more seriously. For example, it was the first country to make education on climate change compulsory, or to include "protection of the environment, biodiversity and ecosystems" in the text in order to "protect future generations".

Moreover, Italy is present on the international scene regarding the environment, such as the Paris Agreement, the EU Adaptation Strategy or the signing of a treaty between France and Italy for a reinforced bilateral cooperation which evokes many aspects and in particular a common commitment in favor of sustainable development, the defense of the climate and biodiversity, as well as the protection of the Mediterranean and the Alpine Arc.

Italy is trying to adapt its consumption for a greener planet, notably by turning to renewable energies and gradually eliminating fossil fuels.

= Greenhouse gas emissions =

Energy consumption
When ranked with other countries in Europe, Italy is considered to be the 4th largest consumer of energy. Italy's most used source of energy is petroleum oil along with other oils as well as natural gas. Due to climate change, Italy has been dedicated to trying to produce and consume more renewable or "green" energy to reduce their carbon footprint and emissions. Overall, Italy is very dependent on importing their energy from other countries, for example, they are the second largest importer of natural gas in Europe which comes Russia. Most of these imports are received through pipelines that run through Europe, through countries like Ukraine. Other imported energy sources like electricity are also partially imported, for instance, in 2016 almost half of Italy's electricity was imported from France. In the same year it was calculated that about 67% of electricity used in Italy was produced by fossil fuels.

Transportation
In 1990 Italy emitted about 102,177 gigagrams of CO2, this value rises pretty steadily over the following decade and a half to 128,539 gigagrams in 2005. After 2005 the CO2 values drop pretty drastically in 2010 and 2015 and then levels out to between 100,000 and 106,000 gigagrams of CO2 until 2019.

Fossil fuel production
Like many other first world countries over the world who have the resources, Italy has been fairly focused on the future of renewables within their country. Italy has been a member of the International Energy Agency (IEA) since 1974, which is an organization that many countries who are dedicated to switching to renewable energy are a part of. Italy is ranked one of its lowest or high performing members within the organization when it comes to carbon intensity. As mentioned from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) in 2019, Italy has no production whatsoever in the coal industry.

Italy is considered a significant oil refining center and is a crucial one in Europe. In 2016 Italy exported around 0.6 million b/d and has an extensive crude oil pipeline called the Transalpine Pipeline running through the country that goes through Trieste which connects to Austria, the Czech Republic, and Germany.

Industrial emissions
Emissions in Italy has increased throughout the industrial age, however due to the demands of climate change and the effort to switch over to more renewable energy sources, Italy has managed to be on a downward curve for their emissions. From 1989 to about 2008 Italy was on the rise for emissions to about 600k kt of CO2, but has since decreased to under 500k kt to around 450k kt of CO2 in 2019. Most of their air pollution when it comes to CO2 emissions has come from their energy supply for electricity and second to that is from manufacturing.

Deforestation
Italy imports many wood products from other countries and was actually considered one of the worlds largest wood importers for fuel in 2009. However Italy itself has no issues with deforestation but rather issues with a rise of uncontrolled forests. A study on The Italian forests in the last 150 years by Maruro Agnoletti, Francesco Piras, Martina Venturi and Antonio Santonio shows this large rate of forest growth over time starting in 1888 where Italy had an estimated 4.215.000 ha of forest cover compared to about 11.778.000 ha of forest cover that Italy has now as of January 2022. The issue isn’t necessarily the amount of forests Italy has but the lack of management. Over a long period of time with humans interacting with forests all over the world but specifically in Italy the natural forests are changed by the introduction of new plant and animal species which inevitably calls for management from humans to reduce the impact of these non native species.

= Impacts on the natural environment =

Temperature and weather changes
The global emissions of greenhouse gases have led to changes in the world's climate and temperatures that can be seen in Italy, impacting the environment around them.

Before the first signs of climate change and due to its geographical position, the Italian climate rarely experienced extreme events. It varied from region to region due to differences in latitude, relief and the influence of the sea. In fact, in the main part of Italy the climate is Mediterranean, with cold winters and snow in the mountains, while in the rest of the country the climate is subtropical, both humid and with high temperatures (see Climate of Italy).

However, since the first visible climate change, Italy is at the forefront of this change, with rising temperatures, melting glaciers, an increase in the number of extreme floods due to sea rise and high rainfall, and more frequent and prolonged periods of drought.

These climatic variations could be noticed in July 2021, when heavy rains were seen causing a lot of damage, while a month later the country experienced a record temperature, with a maximum temperature of 48.8 degrees, in Sicily putting 26 cities under red alert.These two phenomena reflect a changing climate in recent years.

In addition to the increase in these extreme events, the changing Italian climate has seen a decrease in precipitation, such as the winter of 2022 which left Italy with 1⁄3 less rain. The average temperature, meanwhile, has increased, both in winter and summer.

the Italian climate is tending towards tropicalisation, and is facing the consequences of climate change.

These changes are visible, at a regional level, as temperature changes in the Lazio region, where the capital, Rome, is located. This region is one of the warmest in Italy. The Italian capital has not been spared from global warming, as the city's average temperature has risen between 1979 and 2022, from an annual average of 14.6°C in 1980 to an average of 16.3°C 40 years later. So it is getting hotter in the Rome area.

If we detail this increase a little more, and take the months of July and January between 1900 and 2018, the temperature has increased by 1.4°C for July and 1.2°C for January, and this increase is still rising.

For the future, two scenarios have been developed for Italy based on the IPCC reports. Each scenario gives a probable climate variant resulting from the emission level chosen as a working hypothesis. The first scenario (RCP4.5) envisages an increase in greenhouse gas emissions for several more decades, before stabilising and then decreasing before the end of the century. The RCP8.5 scenario models the most extreme case, with no regulation of greenhouse gas emissions.

The CMCC (Euro-Mediterranean Climate Change Centre Foundation) and the 2 scenarios seen above study the climate evolution between 2021 - 2100, based on a 1981 - 2010 reference. In Italy, we can see an increase in temperature, a decrease in the number of cold days, an increase in the number of consecutive days without rain and a decrease in summer rainfall for both scenarios. The number of days with winter precipitation increases in the north of the country while it decreases in the south. A difference is noticeable for the scenario with no CO2 reduction (RCP8.5), which follows the same projections as the first scenario, but with much higher percentages of change.

Short term projections have been made from 2021 to 2050, we can see that the projections predict a global warming of temperatures, up to +2°C for southern Italy, in the months of June, July and August for the 8.5 scenario.

The year 2022 has been classified as the 5th hottest year ever in Italy, making the impacts more and more visible. Indeed, not only the temperature and climate have been affected by climate change, but we can see that the sea level has also been modified.

Sea level rise
With the ongoing climate change, and thus the global increase in temperature, the polar ice caps and glaciers will continue to melt. Sea level rise is therefore expected and the Mediterranean coastline will be affected. According to the IPCC's CMIP6 model projection for the Mediterranean sea, under the SSP3-7.0 scenario, the sea level will rise by 0.6±0.3 m (spread P5-P95) by year 2100. An alarming estimate was published by Strauss et al. in 2021. Their prediction was a global 8.9 m sea level rise following a 4 °C warming by year 2300, which in turn would require the reallocation of the 8.9% of the Italian population in the affected regions, as of today.

In 2007, the then active Italian Ministry for the Environment, Land and Sea stated that plains and coastal areas of about 4500 km2 are at high risk of flooding in year 2100. Their flood vulnerability assessment raised concern for the increased human activity along the coastlines, causing further erosion and damage to the environment. The anthropogenic stress in forms of industrial processes, growing urbanization and tourism, has reduced the coastal fringe resilience to sea level rise, as dunes have become fragmented or destroyed, or beaches narrowing to only a few meters or less. This could lead to consequences for human health and infrastructure in the case of flooding induced by sea level rise.

Water resources
The expected sea level rise and risk of flooding along the Italian coastlines, constitutes a risk of groundwater contamination. The coastal fresh water beds might experience salt water intrusion of which may result in soil dryness in response to a lowered fresh water supply.

The local effects of sea level rise in coastal regions have been studied in Murgia and Salento in southern Italy. These, as well as other regions, use groundwater as their primary supply of water for irrigation and drinking. The natural rate of refilling the groundwater aquifers by freshwater is too slow, making them sensitive to overexploitation (by e.g. illegal wells) as well as the seawater intrusions. This has led to the observed salinity of up to 7 g/L in certain locations along Salento’s coast. As this salination proceeds, the groundwater discharge is expected to decrease significantly, in some cases resulting in a 16% reduction in water supply aimed for household use.

Ecosystems
All ecosystems throughout Italy are being affected by climate change as a result of warming temperatures and increased precipitation. Droughts and wildfires caused by increased temperatures damage ecosystems leading to a cycle of destruction every warm season.

There are many ecosystems in Italy that are knowingly and unknowingly impacted by climate change as a result of human activity. A couple examples of affected ecosystems in Italy are the karst environments in southern Italy and coastal ecosystems affected by railways. Karst landscapes are very sensitive ecosystems that consist of bedrock that is dissolving and is creating caves, sinkholes, streams, etc. Many different kinds of soluble types of rocks exist in karst landscapes, such as limestone and marble, resulting in water eroding and dissolving rocks away and creating the characteristic karst land formation. Karst environments are so sensitive because of their close relationship with water and fragile rock. Anything that happens above will most likely affect the karst ecosystem below as well. Evaluating the Human Disturbance focuses on the human threats to karst ecosystems throughout southern-eastern Italy in the region of Apulia. The biggest threat to karst ecosystems in Apulia is stone clearing and quarrying, which completely changes the landscape of the karst environment and results in the collapse of cave systems. The decline in karst environments in Italy (specifically in Apulia) is negative in the sense that it reduces not only biodiversity but karst environments also have the capacity to bind carbon dioxide within their underwater cave systems meaning Italy will lose this natural capability over time. Karst environments also provide drinking water due to the filtrating abilities of the characteristic porous rocks of karst environments, leading to less drinking water for Italy as well. Other actions by humans that can damage and degrade Karst environments can include mineral extraction, agriculture, cave tourism, runoff, pollution, decline of resources in water or animal species, deforestation, and so on. There are many coasts in Italy bringing a lot of tourism and people to its ecosystems. Railways are often hailed as one of the better modes of transportation but even they can create a great impact on the surrounding nature. Railways demand flat and even land which is typically not the case by shorelines in Italy, so explosives have been used in the past to even out land for tracks. This is understandably quite impactful to the surrounding ecosystems. These railways near shorelines also suffer stability issues due to the constant erosion from the water nearby, so there is a constant need for protection from the shore with sea walls. The constant need for reconstruction of sea walls with the use of mined resources and sediments from the shoreline has created an issue with coastal squeeze in areas of Italy. Coastal squeeze is the degradation and eventual loss of ecosystems and habitats due to structures made by humans specifically on coasts where the natural process of "landward transgression" spurred on by the rise of the sea level is prevented.

Biodiversity
Increased temperatures and higher precipitation is a huge threat to certain species all over the world. In Italy Increased temperature, particularly in the summers, has brought more frequent droughts which threatens biodiversity in different ecosystems. Droughts reduce water quality, flow, and availability which can be an issue for freshwater species and amphibians. Droughts also increase the risk of wildfires which can lead to the destruction of ecosystems and also lead to a decrease in biodiversity. Due to anthropogenic reasons all over the world there has been a decline in ecosystem and environmental quality sometimes resulting in an alarming decrease in biodiversity. In Italy’s case biodiversity is threatened but not in the worst case scenario. Italy has around 67,500 different animal and plant species which makes up about 43% of all of Europe's species. About 0.1% of Italy’s species are extinct, 2% are critically endangered, 3% endangered, and 5% vulnerable as of 2013. Loss of habitat, ecosystem fragmentation, and the degradation of the environment are all the biggest threats to biodiversity in Italy and throughout Europe. The habitats that are at greatest risk in Italy are wetlands, shrublands, rocky areas, and forests. Urbanization is one of the biggest worries for biodiversity as it fragments and destroys ecosystems. Italy has been growing considerably and has been recently converting agricultural land to urban land. There was a law passed (Contenimento del consumo del suolo) in 2016 however that has the goal of decreasing the urbanization of land and attempting to get that conversion rate down to 0% by 2050.

= Impacts on people = According to the IPCC and its latest reports climate change has been partly caused by humans but they are also the first to suffer the consequences.

In Italy, the effects are already being felt on the territory, with numerous impacts on the economy, infrastructure, health and climate migration.

Economic impacts
The IPCC stressed that the cost of reducing emissions would be less than the cost of damage. However, at present, economic losses are already visible due to climate change in Italy. Infrastructure, tourism and the agricultural sector are the most affected by this economic loss.

In fact, a 15% drop in wine production has been noted for the year 2018, even though the country is the world's largest wine producer.

Extreme phenomena such as floods and fires have caused colossal losses to agriculture, and have caused ¼ of the cultivable land to disappear in 25 years. In 2021, a loss of 25% of rice, 10% of wheat and 15% of fruit was recorded. This loss is estimated at nearly 14 billion euros in 2018 and forecasts for some regions a 25% drop in GDP (Gross Domestic Product) by 2080.

Fires have an impact on crops, but also on the timber sector, increasing the trade deficit of the timber sector. The losses do not stop there, if we take into account the immediate costs of extinction and rehabilitation as well as the long-term costs of reconstruction, a fire would cost Italians about ten thousand euros per hectare.

Moreover, due to extreme events, Italian cities are increasingly threatened by floods and would cause damages, material and human, of about 1.6 billion euros per year by 2050.

According to the European Environment Agency, the economic damage caused by extreme events between 1980-2020 has caused the loss of 90 billion euros to Italy, and reinforces the economic inequalities present in the country. Moreover, future projections show that the costs of climate change impacts increase exponentially as temperatures rise in the different scenarios, with values ranging from 0.5% to 8% of GDP by the end of the century.

Health impacts
Through the manifestation of mental health problems, illnesses due to climate change that disrupt food systems and increase infectious diseases and in the most extreme cases lead to death, human health is already being impacted by climate change. Indeed, increases in temperature, ozone concentration or fine dust, particularly in urban areas, would increase deaths from ischaemic heart disease, stroke, nephropathy and metabolic disorders due to heat stress. This impact is most likely to affect vulnerable people such as the elderly, children, pregnant women and people with chronic diseases, and widens the inequality gap in health care.

Rising temperatures and heat waves are one of the causes of death every year in Italy, which has prompted Italy to create the Heat Wave Forecasting and Warning System bulletins. The Ministry of Health has set up Heat Wave Warning and Forecasting System (HHWWS) bulletins, if we take the example of the summer 2018 heatwave, 17 countries are in levels 2-3.

Climate change has caused many impacts, and this can be shown through the Climate Risk Index 2020 ranking which reports events between 1999 and 2018. The studies rank the impacts of climate change in terms of economic losses, GDP losses and deaths.

In the ranking that records the highest number of deaths related to extreme weather events, Italy is the 6th country in the world and the first in Europe with almost 20,000 people dying due to floods and heat waves.

Impacts on housing
Italian infrastructures are impacted by climate change and the effects are already visible. Indeed, with territories where buildings, houses, roads and bridges are poorly or not maintained, material damage is present.

The most common causes of damage are floods such as the Acqua alta in 2019, which submerged the city of Venice under water, flooding homes and leaving them without electricity. Historical monuments were also impacted, such as St Mark's Basilica, which was flooded for the second time in less than a year and a half, whereas this had only happened four times in the last 1,200 years. These floods have made the ground and ground floors of Venice's homes too wet to live in.

In 2021, near Lake Como in northern Italy, severe weather caused serious damage to nearby towns.The rainfall caused the lake to overflow its banks, which in turn led to a great deal of damage, such as flooding, landslides and the transport of rocks, trees and even cars by the force of the muddy torrent, destroying everything in its path.

Impacts on migration
The impact of global warming has also caused people to migrate, as their environment has become unlivable. Decreased agricultural production, water scarcity and rising sea levels have forced people to move away from their homes, impacting the poorest people most rapidly.

For example Venice, which is one of the Italian cities most affected by the impacts of climate change, the city has seen its population decrease over the years. In 1966, the population was 121,000, while predictions for the end of 2022 show that the city may well fall below 50,000 inhabitants.

The Planpincieux glacier is also in the news, with 500,000 cubic meters of the glacier threatening to collapse due to the scorching temperatures hitting the Valle d'Aosta region in 2020, a year after a similar warning. 75 people had to be evacuated by the Italian civil protection, including dozens of residents.

According to the authorities, ⅕ of the country is becoming desertified, and by 2100, 5,000 km2 will end up under water due to rising sea levels causing more and more climate migration. This migration is spreading globally, and according to the World Bank, global warming could force 216 million people to migrate by 2050. = Mitigation and adaptation =

Policies and legislation
Italy is one of the 196 nations which have signed the Paris Agreement, of which constitutes climate change mitigation and adaptation actions. In 2020 the European Union members have updated their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC), where each nation specifies their internal goals and policies to decrease their greenhouse gas emissions. Every two years the member states have to publish a progress report tracking their achievements. Within the union, the goal is to decrease the greenhouse gas emissions by 43% by 2030, compared to 2005. Italy specifically should decrease its emissions by 33% until 2030, and aim to be carbon-neutral by year 2050.

Italy currently generates 11% of the European Union’s greenhouse gas emissions, but have had the most rapid decrease of the member countries since 2005. All economic sectors decreased their contribution to the emissions, but with agriculture showing the smallest reduction. Italy has of year 2020 decreased its emissions by 13% compared to 2005.

The Italian legislative framework for forestry was updated in 2018, which put in place new guidelines and arrangements to coordinate regional administrations, to establish a uniform national policy. The aim is to increase the ecosystem functions of forests as carbon sinks, and simultaneously obtain valuable timber products. The decree therefore emphasizes on sustainable forestry management. Beginning from recent decades, the instigated land-use changes in Italy is aimed to increase the current forested area covering about 31% of Italy’s terrestrial land area.

Approaches
To mitigate climate change, Italy has focused on the implementation of renewables and improved energy efficiencies. Subsequently, coal as an energy source is set to be phased out by year 2025.

Between 2005 and 2019, the energy industry reduced its greenhouse gas emissions by 42%, making it the third largest share of Italy’s total emissions. This decrease arise in part by the increased utilization of renewable energy sources (RES), which increased to 18% 2019. This share should increase to 30% by 2030, with emphasis on wind and solar power. Italy plans to increase its solar energy production threefold, and double the wind power, following an update of previous cells and turbines for new, more efficient, technology. Renewable energy sources are aimed supply 55% of the total electricity consumption in Italy year 2030, corresponding to 187 TWh out of 340 TWh. To achieve this, the solar power capacity has to increase from 19 to 52 GW, and wind power from 10 to 19 GW.

The renewable energy source usage within transportation is further set to reach 22% by 2030. Moreover, the Italian government has put in action subsidies and regulations for both public and private sector to renew their transport fleet. The goal is to reach 4 million electric and 2 million hybrid cars by 2030, as well as increased usage of advanced biofuels such as biomethane due to Italy’s already extensive gas infrastructure.

According to Italy's national recovery and resilience plan, about 62 billion Euros are earmarked for projects in development of the infrastructure such as improved railroad networks and other public transport, as well as an overall digitalization of society and low-emission housing.

= References =