User:MybrotherinChrist2001/Fractional Orbital Bombardment System

Chinese FOBS Development
China tested a FOBS missile system in July and August of 2021. A rocket was launched into orbital flight and re-entered the atmosphere deploying a glide vehicle that traveled at hypersonic speeds. It is claimed that the warhead missed its unidentified target by roughly twenty-four miles. FOBS are technologies from the Cold War and ICBMs tend to be the go-to for most advanced militaries. ICBMs can hold larger warheads because they do not need retro rockets to get the warhead out of orbit like the FOBS does. The amount of warheads the vehicle can deliver is still unknown. Why China is pursuing a FOBS system instead of increasing the capabilities of its current ICBMs is unknown. One thing that is known is that this testing has raised eyebrows worldwide, sparking debates about strategic security and arms control.

The invention of FOB missiles is nothing new. In the 1960s, the Soviet Union tested these missiles. The development was scrapped in the late 1960s however, because the Soviet government thought they were inadequate due to their decreased payload and easier detection. The Chinese military tested these same missiles using the new Hypersonic Glide Vehicle (or HGVs) equipment. Like other medium and long range ballistic missiles, HGVs can reach Mach 5 speeds easily at around 1 mile per second. The difference between missiles equipped with HGVs and those that are not, are that HGV missiles can maneuver and change course after launch far easier than regular ballistic missiles without an HGV. While these missiles can still be detected, the flight path of an HGV based missile is harder to predict, and could cause trouble for anyone attempting to intercept them.

Despite the testing, there is no change in the balance of power in terms of technological advances between the United States and China. China boasts an amount of 450 ICBMs, where the U.S. has 400. However, China only has 142 operational ICBMs with the others in construction. With this in mind, it is highly unlikely that China has an advantage, even with the created technology that could give them a slight military advantage over the United States. While a FOBS system could essentially bypass missile defense systems located in the northern regions of the United States, the United States has been upgrading existing radar on stationary and mobile platforms as well, which could diminish the strike rate of a hypersonic glide vehicle. The improved radar systems could better predict the HGV based missiles, also leading to decreased strike rates.

If anything, this testing may be doing more harm than good for China. This arms buildup is only feeding growing concerns amongst American distrust and fear of China, which may lead to continued significant perceptual consequences for the country. The distrust could also lead to a bigger coalition to deter China from building more weapons and their other military ambitions. China claimed that the test was simply a routine spacecraft test to see if they could reuse it after it went into orbit, denying their participation in creating a FOBS system. If the Chinese FOBS were detected, the Chinese nuclear retaliation against U.S. cities would decrease to 10 percent, which would be disastrous for the Chinese.

While the testing of their presumed FOBS system is not alarming in terms of a major technological advancement, it is a sign of China’s determination to build up its nuclear arsenal and weapons systems. China has clearly stated that they have a no-first-strike policy, but its actions of ramping up its nuclear arsenal and now testing a new FOBS system are now putting that policy into question. They are projected to have 1,000 nuclear weapons by 2030, which would put them in third place behind Russia and the United States in the amount of nuclear weapons each country possesses. Why China is growing its nuclear arsenal is not known, but it does show that its leaders are concerned about something.

China’s pursuit of creating a FOBS system also raises questions about current arms control mechanisms. Traditional arms control agreements primarily focus on ICBMs and SLBMs, leaving room for loopholes in a FOBS system. The current arms treaty preventing any country from putting nuclear weapons in space, the Outer Space Treaty, does not state that a country could not put conventional weapons in space. Only nuclear weapons and weapons of mass destruction are prohibited, conventional weapons are not. This also leaves room for other weapons technologies that could theoretically “pass” as conventional, even though they could be highly destructive. It is possible that these FOBs could be used as a distraction for U.S. interceptors and radars, as the missiles using HGVs are more unpredictable, leading to openings in U.S. defenses for other attacks. While China doesn't have the numbers to retaliate evenly against the United States, the loss of any U.S. city would be devastating.