User:Nadiaalexandria/Climate Change in Middle East and North Africa

The issue of climate change in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) has not been given significance in the political or public sphere. Western climate justice movements consist mainly of the youth which places importance on climate change in the public sphere. However, in the MENA region, the vulnerable youth population struggles with ensuring job security and sufficient incomes as opposed to climate justice. The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change. According to the World Bank, the region is already considered one of the “hottest” and “driest” regions in the world and it may get worse with climate change. The region has already endured several signs of the extreme weather conditions brought about by climate change. These include floods, snow and prolonged droughts. Yet, several of the countries in this region have not ratified the Paris Agreement. Although some countries have signed and ratified the agreement, it appears that these nations have not implemented the policy changes in accordance to the agreement. With that said, the Arab Youth Climate Movement (AYCM) founded in 2012 has brought awareness of climate change and the various impacts it will have to the public.

Different countries in the MENA region will have different impacts to endure and various methods of mitigation as a result of climate change. According to the UN, the impacts that countries will face are that of great potentially irreversible environmental shifts if action is not taken within 11 years. The impacts in the MENA region include increase in drought conditions, aridity, heatwaves, and sea level rise. The region already has limited water resources with water scarcity being a prominent issue especially in North Africa. To be precise, 17 countries in the MENA region rank below the water poverty line established by the UN. Hence, climate change can provoke the worsening of water insecurity in the region.

Increasing water insecurity as a result of climate change can instigate further food insecurity in the countries affected. This is shown by the predicted decline in crop yields by 30% in 2050 as a result of increasing droughts. Decreasing water flows in local rivers have already impacted harvests in certain areas such as Iraq and Syria. Nonetheless, one fifth of the region already suffers issues with food insecurity due to political instability and armed conflict. Developmental issues in the region also pose threats to food security. Thus, FAO and UN programs have worked on assisting vulnerable countries in improving resilience

Five of the MENA countries make the list of the top 10 carbon emitters per capita globally. This is because the MENA region heavily relies on fossil fuel production for domestic use and exportation. Demand for fossil fuels in the region increases with lower energy prices and will continue to do so as long as national governments persist in subsidizing energy production and consumption. If greenhouse gas emissions are not significantly reduced, part of the MENA region risks becoming uninhabitable before the year 2100 due to soaring wet-bulb temperatures.This uninhabitability will persist even if the temperature rise is limited to 2 degrees as advised the IPCC. The region may become largely uninhabitable even if the temperature rise is limited to 2 degrees.

Apart from physical and environmental impacts that climate change will have on the region, social and economic impacts will significantly affect the local populations. A lack of resilience and strong governance in several countries threatens stability and peace in the public sphere. The MENA region already suffers with forced migration as a result of local conflict thus inflicting pressure on state capacity and resources to mitigate for climate change. In more vulnerable countries throughout the MENA region, poorer farmers and local vendors will suffer the consequences of a significant decrease in yield This will heavily impact the livelihoods of many communities who rely on this economic sector, particularly in poorer areas agriculture contributes 13% to the GDP.