User:Notnd1947/sandbox

Seems to me someone has a personal interest to promote here. If this idea ever gets enough attention for RSs to debate the idea, one thing they'll want to discuss is "what happens to the latent heat as all this water freezes?" How will that effect global precip patterns, the formation of Antarctic bottom water as a driver of thermohaline circulation, and a long list of other unsuspected flies in the ointment? Which is why we need multiple RSs to report this. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 07:06, 22 October 2013 (UTC)

Request review at WP:AFC
ABATING THE 1 METER RISE IN SEA LEVEL Frederick “Rick” Denton Dahl, Jr. B.A. Geology, California State University East Bay                                                                                          16077 Ashland Ave. # 338 San Lorenzo, CA 94580                                                           f.d.dahl@sbcglobal.net Tagline: Just an old guy who is tired of hearing people worry and complain when there is a solution. Edited by: Eric Searle Be it known that the purpose of this paper is to open a discussion on a means of postponing the 1 meter rise in sea level. This could allow the world much needed time to stop producing greenhouse gases before the devastating impact of shoreline inundation. Also some people have mistakenly thought that I was talking about stopping greenhouse gases. This paper has nothing to do with stopping greenhouse gases.

Thanks to Dr. Gary Li, PhD Professor California State University,                                    Geography Department, for his encouragement. And Dr. Cynthia Andrzejczyk, Professor California State University, Language Arts Department, for her interest, suggestions, and encouragement.

The flooding of coastal areas due to global warming glacier ice melt and thermal expansion of the seas can be temporarily alleviated.

A Case for Abating the 1 Meter Rise in Sea Level                                                          Authored by Rick Dahl Edited by Eric Searle ABSTRACT Scientific research indicates Global Warming will lead to a 1 meter sea level rise by the year 2100 with the consequential negative impact to land use. The focus of this article is to present the proposition that rising sea level may be managed, delayed, by pumping the excess water to a land-based storage location. In the frozen glacier fields of Antarctica the pumped water can be naturally freeze stored. The largest pumping plant in the world is the A. D. Edmonston Pumping Plant. It has been in use for 40 years and is of sufficient size that 33.11 multiples of it can handle the volume of melt ice being added to the ocean each year. There are active and dormant volcanos and the West Antarctic Rift to provide heat for geothermal power plants of existing size which can provide the necessary electricity for the pumps. The additional problem of thermal expansion of the seas is of such a magnitude that 33.11 Edmonston sized pumping plants are necessary. Therefore it will be necessary to double to 66.22 he number of pumping plants needed to stop seal level from rising. PROBLEM STATEMENT News accounts communicate multiple projections of sea level rise. For the year 2100, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) summarized forecast for global mean sea level rise is expressed by the 90% confident interval of between .2 meters and 2 meters. [1] The purpose of this statement is to establish a plumb line that sea level will rise by 1 meter by the year 2100. Some of the problems associated with a 1 meter rise in sea level were illuminated by the United Nations Environment Programme: 2.3 million km2 inundated shoreline, 145 million people displaced, and nearly $1 trillion lost GDP with the U.S.’s share being $100 billion in GDP. [2] Primer on Short-Lived Climate Pollutants estimates $35 Trillion in assets will be at risk in the top 20 cities in 2070. [3]  It is difficult to find total estimated worldwide costs of the 1 meter rise in sea level by 21 00. The only numbers tend to be localized. US EPA article, Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions for 2008, shows the US’s contribution is 19% and China contributed 23%..[4]  Columbia University used data from US EPA and British Petroleum to determine that he US cumulative responsibility is 26% and China is 10.7 percent.[5] Ascribing equitable responsibility, the US is 26% responsible for global warming and its economic effects and Europe 28.9% responsible, [5]  while only $100 million[5]  is our share of the trillion dollar estimate for lost GDP. Lost GDP does not take into account lost value for the inundated areas or the cost of holding back the seas with sea walls, etc. Using this responsibility template, the U.S. would be responsible for relocating about 26 million Asian immigrants. Total water immersion is about 2,223 km2 roughly 1/3 the area of Australia, with the U.S.’s loss being 610 km2 of land with additional EPA’s estimated losses of estuaries (38%) and most mid-Atlantic wet lands. A catastrophic impact to our food supply will be incurred due to fish and fowl estuary nursery destruction with no immediate quantitatively identifiable financial loss. SOMETHING NEEDS TO BE DONE HOW TO ALLEVIATE THE 1 METER RISE IN SEA LEVEL Data from NASA’s GRACE satellite system enabled a direct estimate of 150 Billion tons of net ice melt each year. [6] This is not based upon sea level rise. This seems to be an accepted number. 150 billion tons of ice converts to 32.65 cubic miles of water. This amount equal’s glacial melt; an equal measure is applicable to ocean water thermal expansion. Necessary water removal is 65.30 cubic miles. Land absorption of the water volume is not long term tenable. Using the water processing potential outlined in the abstract, designated water storage locations are an option. In the frigid glacier fields of Antarctica and Greenland, the pumped water can be naturally frozen and stored. Antarctic weather is freezing 365.25 days a year,[7] and Greenland remains below 32 degrees Fahrenheit approximately 6 months of the year. The A. D. Edmonston Pumping Plant facilities houses 14-80,000 horse power motors, pumping  1,570,507 acre feet,[8] (converts to 0.4647 cubic miles) of water per year part time. From the combined motor ratings, 835 MW, and a motor efficiency of 98.25%,[8] and Mega Watt Hours energy consumption (See data at the end) of 3,509,882 MW-h, off peak time, calculations show that working full time 0.986 cubic miles of water can be pumped. Therefore 33.11 multiples of it could handle the volume of melt ice being added to the ocean each year. There are 11 active and dormant volcanos and the West Antarctic Rift to provide heat for geothermal power plants to produce the 28,143 Mega Watts of power. The largest geothermal power plant is Iceland’s Hellisheiði Power Station produces 400 MW of power. The 33.11 pumping plants will require 70.35 Hellisheiði sized power plants or a single large facility as determined by greatest efficacy. Additionally, another 33.11 A. D. Edmonston Pumping Plants and another 70.35 Hellisheiði sized power plants will handle the excess volume of sea water due to thermal expansion of the seas. Both pumping plants and geothermal electric plants are scalable, providing location flexibility. The solution has two directions it can follow, ices shelves and glaciers. The forty or so Antarctic ice shelves provide a low area to store ice. The advantage of the ice shelves is a lower energy requirement to pump the water onto the shelves as compared to the energy required to pump to the higher elevation glacier fields. Ice shelves can work as long as they are grounded.

DISPERSON OF WATER The 65.3 cubic miles of combined glacier melt and thermal expansion water needs elevation to disperse and cool so that it can freeze. No area single area can handle 65.3 cubic miles of ice per year, year after year. To demonstrate the feasibility of this project we have discussed 66.22 pumping plants. However many pumping stations are built for the job, they will be built near the shore for access to the water, (Water is easy to push but does not pull.) then the water will need to be moved by tunnel to higher elevations. An isotherm map of Antarctica corresponds directly with the topographic map of Antarctica. Summer time temperatures range from 0oC at the shoreline to a low of -30oC[7] at the 14,000 foot summit. The length and outlets of the tunneling will be determined by design. COSTS Pumping Plants Cost. Since pumping plants cost are not available, pumps and motors are replaced with generator and turbines used for flood control dam retrofitted is used a surrogate. Their cost is $2.1/MW. I will not list my source because I do not know how close generator and turbines are to motors and pumps. $2.1 million/MW times the size required for one Edmonston sized power plant is: $2.1 million/MW time 850 MW = $1785 million per pump station. Next we want the total cost of 33.11 pumping plants. $1785 times 33.11 = $59,101 or about $118 Billion for 66.22 pumping plants. Geothermal Power Plant Costs; The recent addition by Mannvit, the managing contractor for the 90 MW addition to Iceland’s Hellisheidi Geothermal Power Plant cost $197 million,[9] gives us a $2.2 million per Meg Watt cost of construction. ($2.2 million per MW times 56,287 MW. This equals $124 Billion for  each Edmonston sized pumping plant. Adding the pump plant cost together with the power plant cost: $118 B + $124 B ≈ $242 Billion.  	$242 billion does not include the cost of piping/tunneling or power distribution. There are also at least two multiplier factors to consider, remote location and fridge working conditions. Discharge tunnels: I expect that tunneling will be the major cost. TBM, Tunnel Boring Machines:  TBMs are in widespread use today. The media reported cost of the Gotthard Base Tunnel consisting of two (1-30 and 1-31 foot diameter) 35-mile-long, (57-kilometres- long) tubes is  $10.1 Billion US.  This is roughly $144 Million per mile. The single bore cross sectional area is about 4.5-6.25 times that of the single bore for the Edmonston single bore which begins at 12 foot diameter and finishes with 14 foot diameter. CONCLUSION Barring unknown considerations that make the project impractical the project is technologically doable and financially practical.

POWER CALCULATIONS                                                                                                                         (Data provided by the California Department of Water Resources) The calculations are 6th grade arithmetic, just using large numbers. The data for the Edmonston Pumping Plant were provided by the California Department of Water Resources. The Edmonston Pumping plant was chosen because it is the biggest pumping plant in the world; it is pumps 1,570,507 Acre Feet up hill 1926 feet and across 10 miles. Convert Acre Feet to cubic miles: 1,570,507 AF = 0.46475… of a cubic mile. Conversion values were calculated by hand. Find full time pumping volume that Edmonston pumping plant is capable of: Find the multiplier for total volume capable based on the ratio of hours in a year to hours of operation. Mega-Watt-Hours (MW-h) consumed in 2012: 3,509,882 MW-h                                                                                 Combined motor ratings 835 MW                                                                                                       Motor efficiency 98.25 % or .9825 Hours of operation = (3,509,882 MW-h ÷ [835MW]) x [.9825] ≈ 4130 hours. Hours in a year 365.25 x 24 = 8766 hours The Edmonston plant operates 4130 hours per year ÷ 8766 hours per year = .488 percent of the time. And is capable of pumping 2.12 times as much water or ≈ 0.986 of a cubic mile Convert 150 Billion tons of ice converts to cubic miles ≈ 32.65 cubic miles. How many pumps to pump 150 Billion tons of ice is 32.65 ÷ 0.986 ≈  33.11 Global warming of the seas accounts for ½ of the rise in sea level. Therefore twice as many pumping plants will be necessary this number is 66.22 pumping plants. Iceland’s Hellisheiði Power Station was chosen because it is the biggest geothermal power plant in the world; it produces 400 MW of power. Each Pump plant will require 850 MW of power. This is found by dividing the motor rating by its efficiency of .9825 = 850 MW. The number of Hellisheiði sized Power Stations is one way of looking at the power requirement                 [850 ÷ 400]x 66.22 ≈ 140.7 Hellisheiði Power Stations Another number we need to know is the number of Mega Watts generating capacity required. This is 140.7 times 400 ≈ 56,287 MW. Edmonston Pumping Data was provided by the California Department of Water Resources Characteristics: Number of units: 14                 Total Motor rating: (835 MW)    Horsepower: 80,000 hp per motor                                                                                                    Phase: 3                                    Motor Efficiency: 98.25%

Active and Dormant Volcanos in Antarctica

(Wikipediahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_volcanoes_in_Antarctica)

Biblography 1.	Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States National Climate Assessmenthttp://cpo.noaa.gov/Home/AllNews/TabId/315/ArtMID/668/ArticleID/80/Global-Sea-Level-Rise-Scenarios-for-the-United-States-National-Climate-Assessment.aspx

2.	Population, area and economy affected by a 1 m sea level rise (global and regional estimates, based on today's situation) http://www.grida.no/graphicslib/detail/population-area-and-economy-affected-by-a-1-m-sea-level-rise-global-and-regional-estimates-based-on-todays-situation_d4fe

3.	Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions Datahttp://www.epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions/global.html#ref1

4.	Nicholls, R. J.et al. (2008), “Ranking Port Cities with High Exposure and Vulnerability to Climate Extremes: Exposure Estimates”, OECD Environment Working Papers, No. 1, OECD Publishing. http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/011766488208

5.	FIGURE 27. Current and cumulative fossil fuel carbon dioxide emissions. (Data sources are Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, and British Petroleum.) http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/UpdatedFigures/

6.	CU-Boulder study shows global glaciers, ice caps, shedding billions of tons of mass annually http://www.lexisnexis.com.proxylib.csueastbay.edu/hottopics/lnacademic/?verb=sr&csi=338009&sr=HLEAD%28CU-Boulder+study+shows+global+glaciers%2C+ice+caps%2C+shedding+billions+of+tons+of+mass+annually%29%2BAND%2BDATE%2BIS%2B2012

7.	Based upon records from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts made into a map in Wikipedia Español: Temperatura de la superficie antártica en invierno y en verano. Antarctic surface temperature from ECMWF (era40) reanalyses, 1979-2001. Summer: DJF (dec-jan-feb). Winter: JJA (jun-jul-aug). Data is the near-surface (1.5m) temperature from ECMWF 40 year reanalyzes, for the period 1979-2001. There remain uncertainties in the values. By William M. Connolley using IDL.

8.	Pumping data and pump specifications provided by California Department of Water Resources by: Meghan Cottrell Meghan.Cottrell@water.ca.gov

9.	Mannvit corporate website: http://www.mannvit.com/AboutUs/News/Readarticle/90mwadditiontoicelandshellisheidigeothermalpowerplant