User:Obxhunter

I.	Title: Population Estimation and Growth Simulation

II. Purpose: To estimate the size of a population, chart the growth of the populaton, and observe the effects of an environments carrying capacity.

III. Hypothesis: If we use the mark-recapture method, then we should be able to determine the population size.

IV. Variables:

In our lab we used a lunch bag, a marker, a calculator, some beans, and some graph paper. We received a bag of beans, and we first grabbed a handful of beans out of the bag. We counted and marked the 96 beans, and placed them back in the bag. We then shook the bag all around, to make sure and mix all of the beans together. We then proceeded to grab another handful out of the bag. We counted the marked beans, and the unmarked beans. We ended up with 91 beans and out of that, 7 were marked. We then used this formula:

Calculated Total Population =  total in second sample  x  # marked initially ( CTP )			# of marked beans in second sample

to figure out the estimated population, which when we plugged all of the numbers in, we came up with 1248 beans. We then dumped all of the beans out of the bag, and we counted them all. We ended up with 1179 beans. After that we calculated the percent error using this formula:

% error =  ATP  -  CTP	x    100 ATP

Our percent error was 5.85%. The last thing we did was we used the birth rate and death rate equations to figure out what the population would be for the next 15 years. This is what we came up with.