User:Oceanflynn/sandbox/California Drought 2012-2015



California Drought 2012-2015 is part of the 2012–15 North American drought. It the most severe drought faced by California in modern times. By February 1, 2014, Felicia Marcus, the chairwoman of the California State Water Resources Control Board, argues that California needs to "conserve what little we have to use later in the year, or even in future years." In February 2014, the California drought reached for the first time in the 54-year history of the State Water Project to shortages of water supplies. According to NASA, tests published in January 2014 have shown that the twelve months prior to January 2014 were the driest on record, since record-keeping began in 1885. By June 2015, the US Drought Monitor analysis showed that while 98.71% of California was under "Severe Drought", 46.73% of California was under an "Exceptional Drought" warning— the most serious drought— with "[e]xceptional and widespread crop/pasture losses; shortages of water in reservoirs, streams, and wells creating water emergencies" and 71.08% was under a "Extreme Drought" with "[m]ajor crop/pasture losses; widespread water shortages or restrictions." According to an article published in the Geophysical Research Letters, the 2014 drought, the "most severe drought in the last 1200 years," was caused by "reduced though not unprecedented precipitation and record high temperatures." According to Richard Howitt, a University of California, Davis professor emeritus of agricultural and resource economics, the 2014 drought was "responsible for the greatest water loss ever seen in California agriculture."

By 2014 there was widespread concern about the economic impact of the drought on California's 44.7 billion dollar agricultural industry, which produces nearly half of all U.S.-grown fruits, nuts, and vegetables. California's agricultural industry "uses 80 percent of the water consumed in the state in a normal year."

Water in California
With an unreliable dry season rainfall, water is limited in California, the most populous U.S. state. Water and water rights are therefore among California's most divisive political issues. California has a "fractious history of water development." Even with severe drought conditions there has been an ongoing debate on whether California should increase the redistribution of water to its large agricultural and urban sectors, or increase conservation and preserve the natural ecosystems of the water sources. On February 14, 2014, President Barack Obama visited near Fresno and announced $170 million worth of initiatives, with $100 million for ranchers facing livestock losses and $60 million to help food banks. Obama joked about the lengthy and incendiary history of water politics in California, saying, "I'm not going to wade into this. I want to get out alive on Valentine's Day."

The Sacramento–San Joaquin River Delta is often considered the nexus of California's statewide water system. About half the total river flow in the state passes through this region, from which water is exported to the San Joaquin Valley, Southern California and portions of the Bay area to supply some 1130000 acre of farmland and 23 million people in central and Southern California. The Delta provides an estimated 7 e6acre.ft of water per year, of which about 100000 acre.ft are exported to the San Francisco Bay Area, 1.7 e6acre.ft are used locally, and over 5 e6acre.ft are exported to the San Joaquin Valley, coastal Central and Southern California.

Salinity intrusion in the Sacramento–San Joaquin River Delta
According to Jon Burau, a senior hydrologist with the U.S. Geological Survey, "Salinity is the central management challenge during a drought." Burau described how much water it takes to repel "salinity intrusion to maintain water deliveries." Multiple droughts between 1910 and 1940 caused significant salinity intrusion in the Delta because of the reduction of freshwater inflows. Intrusion of brackish water into the Delta is a recurring natural phenomenon; however, it became a serious issue after the development of agriculture in the upper Sacramento and San Joaquin valley reduced inflows. The growing Delta water quality issue provided the initial impetus for building dams on Central Valley rivers to boost dry-season freshwater flows. This eventually became the Central Valley Project (CVP), California's first major statewide water system, most of which was built between the 1930s and the 1960s. Freshwater stored in Sacramento River reservoirs and released downriver during dry periods prevents salt water from intruding into the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta during high tide.

Peripheral Canal
By 2011, because of drought and other low flow issues that cause salty ocean water to flow from pumping stations which are located at the southern edge of the Sacramento–San Joaquin River Delta into the aqueducts of both the state (California Aqueduct) and federal government (Delta-Mendota Canal), aquatic environments as well as water for drinking and irrigation are contaminated. Thus, both state and federal agencies proposed a plan in 1965 for the second phase of the California State Water Project, which created a canal that would transport fresh water from the Sacramento River bypassing the delta, instead of through it. The Peripheral Canal, is part of the $25 billion Bay Delta Conservation Plan to divert water from California's Sacramento River, around the periphery of the San Joaquin-Sacramento River Delta through two tunnels. The tunnels would "reduce poisonous salinity in San Francisco Bay and shunt more water to ever-thirsty, fast-growing southern California."

California's water system
California's water system is the "world’s largest, most productive, and most controversial water system." The California Department of Water Resources, a comprehensive statewide water management system, was established in 1956 partially to complement and extend the creation of the federal irrigation-based Central Valley Project (CVP), which primarily serves agricultural users. California Department of Water Resources operates the California State Water Project (SWP), one of the largest publicly built and operated, water and power development and conveyance systems in the world. The SWP collects water from rivers in Northern California and redistributes it to the water-scarce but populous south through a network of aqueducts, pumping stations and power plants. About 70% of the water provided by the project is used for urban areas and industry in Southern California and the San Francisco Bay Area, and 30% is used for irrigation in the Central Valley. In response to the 2014 drought In July 2014 the California Department of Water Resources planned to reduce water allocations to farmland by 50%.

The SWP and the CVP share facilities; water can be interchanged between SWP and CVP canals as needed to meet peak requirements for project constituents.

In 1992 when Norris Hundley Jr, a historian at the University of California, Los Angeles, wrote his book entitled The Great Thirst, California was experiencing a six-year drought that exposed the fragile water system upon which California depended. The "world's largest and most complex hydraulic system water system" to "collect the runoff from the snows in the Sierra Nevada and divert water from the Colorado River" transforming the harsh environment and bringing "sustenance to huge cities and farms."

California Water Wars
The California Water Wars pitted local residents dependent on the Owens River valley system against the City of Los Angeles. In 1941, Los Angeles also diverted water that previously fed Mono Lake, north of Owens Valley, into the Los Angeles aqueduct.

Central Valley
In February 2014, after three consecutive years of below-normal rainfall, California faced its most severe drought emergency in decades with fish populations in the Sacramento–San Joaquin River Delta in unprecedented crisis due to the decades of massive water exports from Northern California to south of the Delta via state and federal water projects. “Fisheries... people and economic prosperity of northern California are at grave risk", per Bill Jennings, Director of the California Sportfishing Protection Alliance Half a million acres of Central Valley farmland supposedly was in danger of going fallow due to drought. On 5 February 2014 the House passed a bill to increase flows from the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta to the Central Valley, the Sacramento-San Joaquin Valley Emergency Water Delivery Act (H.R. 3964; 113th Congress). This would suspend the very recent efforts to restore the San Joaquin River since 2009, won after 18 years of litigation, with increased releases from the Friant Dam east of Fresno. Democratic Senators Dianne Feinstein and Barbara Boxer proposed emergency drought legislation of $300 million aid, and to speed up environmental reviews of water projects, so state and federal officials have "operational flexibility" to move water south, from the delta to San Joaquin Valley farms.

Owens Valley
In 1913 Los Angeles Aqueduct was completed diverting water from the fertile Owens Valley, on the eastern slope of the Sierras and eventually turning it into a dustbowl. The 223 mi Los Angeles Aqueduct, planned by William Mulholland, superintendent of the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP), is the source of half of the water for Los Angeles, and is infamous as the scene of one of the fiercest and longest running episodes of the California Water Wars. The water rights were acquired in a deceitful manner, often splitting water cooperatives and pitting neighbors against one another. In 1924, local farmers were fed up with the purchases and erupted in violence, sabotaging parts of the water system.

Economic impact on agriculture
Historically, California's farmers have aggressively protected their water rights for crop irrigation. In response to exceptional drought conditions in 2015, California "officials accepted an offer from farmers in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta to give up a quarter of their water this season, either by leaving part of their land unplanted or finding other ways to reduce their water use." American Farm Bureau Federation

California is the "top U.S. agricultural producer at $44.7 billion" producing milk, beef, wine, avocados, strawberries and almonds. The California Farm Water Coalition, an industry group estimated that the 2014 total lost revenue was about $5 billion.

By 1992 California's water system gave "enormous subsidies to corporate farmers" who use the water "to irrigate low-value crops like alfalfa."

The heart of the California farm belt is near the confluence of the Merced and San Joaquin rivers.

California provides 95 percent of U.S. avocados and 86 percent of U.S. strawberries. Artichokes are California's official vegetable. Almonds generated $4.35 billion in 2012 and are the third-largest farm product in California.

Water allocations
California's 38 million residents experienced 13 consecutive months of drought. This is particularly an issue for the state's 44.7 billion dollar agricultural industry, which produces nearly half of all U.S.-grown fruits, nuts, and vegetables.

In response to the drought, in June 2015 California State Water Resources Control Board "imposed statewide requirements on water use." (SWRCB) chairwoman Felicia Marcus Ms. Marcus encourages residents to cut back on watering lawns and gardens by replacing lawns with drought-tolerant plants. Marcus and farmers in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta negotiated a deal in which farmers "cut their water use by 25 percent, a once unthinkable compromise of long-held water claims".

Again with a lack of water due to low snow-pack in the Sierra Nevada, California governor Jerry Brown ordered a series of stringent mandatory water restrictions on April 1, 2015. Brown ordered cities and towns to reduce their water usage by 25%, which would amount in 1.5 million acre-feet of water in the nine months following the mandate in April. However, Brown's water restrictions have been criticized because they have not been applied to California's agricultural sector, which uses around 80% of California's developed water supply.

Sierra Nevada snowpack


The Sierra Nevada snow-pack is the major source of water and a significant source of electric power generation in California. Since 2012, the range has been in a dry spell, contributing heavily to drought conditions throughout the state. California relied heavily on the Sierra snowpack for their water needs as the snow usually lasted until June. But by April 2015 the five-foot snow caps had already disappeared.

In January 17, 2014 when California Governor Jerry Brown declared a drought emergency, the Sierra Nevada snow-pack was at 20% of normal for that time of year.

As of March 27, 2015 snowpack in the Sierra Nevada was at a record low of eight percent of the historical average for April 1.

Pomeroy added, however, that it won’t be as bad as the disastrous drought in the southern United States. A fouryear drought in California has led to mandatory statewide water restrictions this year after

surveyors found the lowest Sierra Nevada snowpack in 65 years of recordkeeping.17 Jun 2015 Calgary Herald COLETTE DERWORIZ CALGARY HERALD cderworiz@ calgaryherald. com Twitter: @ cderworiz The mountain melt has happened much earlier than normal Officials say rainfall could cause flooding, but signs point to drought

National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)
The NOAA report entitled "The Causes and Predictability of the 2011 to 2014 California Drought" concluded that,

""The severe drought in California over the last 3 years (2011-14) is primarily due to natural climate variability, key features of which appear to be predictable from knowledge of how California precipitation reacts to tropical ocean temperatures. There has been no long-term trend in California precipitation; however, California temperatures have been rising and record high temperatures during the drought were likely made more extreme due to human-induced climate change.""

- NOAA December 4, 2014

The NIDIS Program, an interagency, multi-partner approach to drought monitoring, forecasting, and early warning is led by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). is supported by the NOAA Climate Program Office and is housed at the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory in Boulder, Colorado.According to the NOAA Drought Task Force report of 2014, the drought is not part of a long-term change in precipitation and was a symptom of the natural variability, although the record-high temperature that accompanied the recent drought may have been amplified due to human-induced global warming.

Ridiculously Resilient Ridge


The Ridiculously Resilient Ridge, is a particularly stubborn atmospheric blocking ridge-trough over the far northeastern Pacific Ocean that disrupted the North Pacific storm track during the winters of 2012-2013, 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 and prevented winter storms from reaching California. This resulted in extremely dry and warm conditions in California and along much of the West Coast.

Temperature
During the winter of 2014-2015 there was a persistent stationary high-pressure pattern over the west coast that redirected the jet stream bringing warm air north over the western U.S. California— along with many other Western states— experienced its warmest winter on the 120-year record. California — along with Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, Washington, and Wyomings— all experienced a top-10 warm January in 2015. California also experienced its fourth-driest January on record, receiving only 15 percent of its average precipitation for what would ordinarily be the wettest month of the year. San Francisco recorded no measurable precipitation in January for the first time on record, and as with the state, January is typically the wettest month of the year for the city. California averaged 1.5 F-change warmer than the previous warmest winter (2013–14), which had broken the previous record (1980–81) by 0.8 °F. February was the warmest on record in Washington, California, Utah and Arizona, while February was among the top 10 warmest in four other states. Overall, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported that about 30.6 percent of the country was “very warm” – meaning February was in the warmest 10 percent of the historical record – while 31.5 percent of the country was “very cold,” or in the coldest 10 percent historically.

Heat waves
The intense heat wave which initiated in the West with a high pressure system centered over the Baja California peninsula shifting upward into the plains in June 2012.

Precipitation
As California received additional rainfall in December 2014, this was not expected to end California's drought, and trees were at risk due to weakened roots. Experts also noted that due to the soil's extreme dryness and low groundwater levels, it would take significantly more rain–at least five more similar storms–to end the drought. On December 18, it was revealed that almost all of the Exceptional Drought in Northern California had been reduced to Extreme Drought severity, as a result of the winter storms that brought rain to California during December.

Historically rainfall in California had been abnormally high since the late 1800s. According to Professor Scott Stine from Cal State East Bay, California experienced its wettest period in seven thousand years during the 20th century, according to his study of tree stumps around Mono Lake, Tenaya Lake and other parts of the Sierra Nevada. Stine is quoted as saying in the National Geographic Magazine, "What we have come to consider normal is profoundly wet,". This view was backed by Lynn Ingram of University of California, Berkeley.

In 2014 arid conditions governor Jerry Brown called "unprecedented" continued "well into the annual rainy season that runs from October through March. Reservoirs on January 27 were at 61 percent of average."

Economic impact of drought
In June 2015 a UC Davis research teamed published their "preliminary analysis of a drought economic impact study" concluded that hardest hit city is Tulare, in the southern San Joaquin Valley.

""“We estimate about 564,000 acres will be fallowed because of the drought, resulting in a statewide reduction in gross crop farm revenue of about $856 million. Livestock and dairies may add another $350 million in direct revenue losses for 2015. Regional economic impacts of these cuts were estimated using the IMPLAN model for the Central Valley, and show approximately 18,600 full-time, part-time, and seasonal jobs lost once multiplier effects are included. The total economic loss to agriculture is estimated to be $2.7 billion.""

- UC DAVIS 2015

In 2014 Richard Howitt, a UC Davis professor emeritus of agricultural and resource economics and his research team published a report on the effect of the drought on farm production and its economic fallout.

""This report updates estimates on the drought’s effects on Central Valley farm production, presents new data on the state’s coastal and southern farm areas, and forecasts the drought’s economic fallout through 2016.The study found that the drought -- the third most severe on record -- is responsible for the greatest water loss ever seen in California agriculture, with river water for Central Valley farms reduced by roughly one-third. Groundwater pumping is expected to replace most river water losses, with some areas more than doubling their pumping rate over the previous year. More than 80 percent of this replacement pumping occurs in the San Joaquin Valley and Tulare Basin. The results highlight California agriculture's economic resilience and vulnerabilities to drought and underscore the state’s reliance on groundwater to cope with droughts."

- 2014 UC Davis

Drought-resistant plants
(SWRCB) chairwoman Felicia Marcus encourages residents to cut back on watering lawns and gardens by replacing lawns with drought-tolerant plants.

A 16-year study of how precipitation affects groundwater dependent vegetation was conducted and the results showed that the alkali meadow vegetation plant community is groundwater dependent, and that this characteristic buffers the system from the effects of drought. This means that certain plants are actually able to help prevent droughts, but can only do so if groundwater is maintained at a certain level. One of the reasons that the study was conducted was to ascertain whether the Owens Valley region of California could handle any practiced or proposed groundwater extraction.