User:Oceanflynn/sandbox/Canadian Energy Research Institute

The Canadian Energy Research Institute (CERI) is a not-for-profit organization established in 1975 that is head-quartered in Calgary, Alberta. CERI is which is partly funded by the government similar to the Canada Energy Regulator, Canada Action, and the Canadian Energy Network.

Media citations
CERI has been cited by CBC News, The Tyee,

Publications
The Canadian Energy Research Institute (CERI) performed an analysis in 2013, estimating that in 2012 the average plant gate costs (including 10% profit margin, but excluding blending and transport) of primary recovery was $30.32/bbl, of SAGD was $47.57/bbl, of mining and upgrading was $99.02/bbl, and of mining without upgrading was $68.30/bbl.

In 2014 a CERI report examined "the 'uncertainties' facing the oil sands sector."

In their 2015 report, "CERI Commodity Report — Crude Oil" they said that in the absence of new pipeline capacity, companies are increasingly shipping bitumen from the oil sands to US markets by railway, river barge, tanker, and other transportation methods. Other than ocean tankers, these alternatives are all more expensive than pipelines.

In 2019 CERI published "Economic and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Impacts of Alternative Transportation Scenarios for Canadian Cities."

CERI's forecasts
According to an October 2014 Globe and Mail article, the CERI "estimated that a "new mine would need an oil price of $105 (U.S.) a barrel to make a reasonable return, while a typical in-situ project would require a price of $85." CERI president, Peter Howard, warned that if the government added on "more costs for environmental reasons", the oil sands would make the oil sands uneconomic. The industry would lose much-needed capital investment. whose institute recently produced a report on the 'uncertainties' facing the oil sands sector." At that time CERI had forecast that a "failure to win approval for major pipeline projects would slash 1.8 million barrels per day from anticipated oil sands production in 2030. Because the crude would be trapped in North America, producers would have to sell it at a deep discount, costing them $20 (U.S.) on every barrel they sell."

Oil sands production forecasts released by the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP), the Alberta Energy Regulator (AER), and the Canadian Energy Research Institute (CERI) are comparable to National Energy Board (NEB) projections, in terms of total bitumen production. None of these forecasts take into account probable international constraints to be imposed on combustion of all hydrocarbons in order to limit global temperature rise, giving rise to a situation denoted by the term "carbon bubble".

In 2015, the Canadian Energy Research Institute (CERI) re-estimated the average plant gate costs (again including 10% profit margin) of SAGD to be $58.65/bbl, and 70.18/bbl for mining without upgrading. Including costs of blending and transportation, the WTI equivalent supply costs for delivery to Cushing become US$80.06/bbl for SAGD projects, and US$89.71/bbl for a standalone mine.