User:Omni ND/Tropical Cyclone Advisories/South Indian/2006 Advisories/Tropical Cyclone 21S (Hubert) Advisory 1

THIS IS BOTH A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT AND THE FIRST ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE HUBERT. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL CYCLONE HUBERT AFTER CIRCLING OVER 29 DEGREES C WATERS FOR A FEW DAYS. CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VERY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, AS HUBERT NOW HAS A WELL-DEFINED CORE ALONG WITH EXCELLENT OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE JTWC DIAGNOSES A MODERATE THREAT TO WESTERN AUSTRALIA AT THIS TIME, AS DOES THE GFS MODEL. INTERESTS IN AUSTRALIA SHOULD BEGIN TO CAREFULLY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS POTENTIALLY MAJOR TROPICAL EVENT ALTHOUGH VERY SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE IS CURRENTLY UNLIKELY. THIS FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF GFS GUIDANCE AND THEREFORE IS STRONGER. HUBERT SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN OVER COOLER WATERS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

CURRENT: 45 KNOTS 12 HOURS: 55 KNOTS 24 HOURS: 70 KNOTS 36 HOURS: 85 KNOTS 48 HOURS: 95 KNOTS 60 HOURS: 105 KNOTS 72 HOURS: 95 KNOTS 84 HOURS: 110 KNOTS 96 HOURS: 100 KNOTS 108 HOURS: 75 KNOTS 120 HOURS: 55 KNOTS 132 HOURS: 40 KNOTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 144 HOURS: 30 KNOTS...DISSIPATING