User:Onetwothreeip/2019 Peterborough by-election

A by-election took place in the Parliamentary constituency of Peterborough on 6 June 2019. It was won by Lisa Forbes of the Labour Party. Mike Greene of the Brexit Party took second place.

The seat was vacant following the removal of the former Labour MP Fiona Onasanya by means of a recall petition triggered by her conviction for perverting the course of justice.

Background


Labour candidate Fiona Onasanya was elected to represent Peterborough at the 2017 general election, defeating Stewart Jackson, the sitting Conservative MP, by 607 votes. In July 2017, her car was driven at 41 mph through a 30 mph zone in Thorney, Cambridgeshire. A Notice of Intended Prosecution was returned to the police in her name, claiming that a man named Aleks Antipow was the driver. However, it was later discovered that Antipow was in his native Russia at the time. Around the same time, her brother Festus had also responded to two other notices with false names. Both Fiona and Festus Onasanya were consequently charged with perverting the course of justice; Festus pleaded guilty while Fiona pleaded not guilty.

Owing to the jury at the Old Bailey failing to reach a verdict, Judge Nicholas Hilliard QC ordered a retrial. At the retrial, Onasanya was found guilty and compared herself afterwards to several biblical figures including Moses and Jesus who had been convicted by courts in their day; she declared her intention to appeal. Onasanya received a three-month prison sentence. The Attorney General reviewed the sentence after a complaint was received from the public that it was unduly lenient, and concluded that it was not. Onasanya was released from prison on 26 February 2019, after serving four weeks. Her appeal against conviction was rejected on 5 March 2019, and later that day, the Speaker of the House of Commons John Bercow announced in Parliament that a recall petition would be put into place against her.

Recall petition
Under the Recall of MPs Act 2015, any MP who receives a prison sentence of a year or less is subject to a recall petition, though the procedure cannot begin until appeals have been unsuccessful. Onasanya lost her request to appeal on 5 March 2019. The court officially informed the Speaker of the House of Commons who, later that day, took the necessary steps to initiate the process which included notifying the petition officer for the constituency.

The petition officer for Peterborough opened the petition on 19 March, with ten designated signing places within the constituency for constituents to sign the petition. The threshold for success was ten percent of eligible constituents (6,967 out of 69,673) signing within the six-week period (ending 1 May) in order to recall Onasanya and call a by-election. Registered parliamentary electors could sign the petition at their assigned polling place, or do so by post or by proxy. The projected cost of the petition was approximately £500,000.

No ongoing tally was reported by the petitions officer, thus it was not known that the required threshold had been reached until the end of the six-week period. There was no opinion polling, as UK law prohibits forecasts of the outcome of recall petitions which are based on statements from, or surveys of, potential signatories.

19,261 signatures were obtained. This represented 27.64% of the 69,673 electors eligible to sign the petition, thus surpassing the 10% threshold, causing the seat to become vacant, and triggering the 2019 Peterborough by-election.

Though she did not stand, Onasanya was legally eligible to be a candidate in the by-election. The Labour Party had withdrawn support for her – the party encouraged voters to sign the petition and, along with several other parties, pre-selected a by-election candidate.

European Union
In the 2016 European Union referendum, 62.1% of voters in the Peterborough City Council area—which covers the constituency and part of North West Cambridgeshire—voted to leave the European Union. At the European Parliament election, held two weeks before the by-election, the Brexit Party was in first position in the council area, receiving 38.3% of votes.

Candidates and campaign
The list of 15 nominated candidates was announced on 9 May. Anticipating the recall petition's success, several parties announced candidates before it had even opened.

Although not disqualified from seeking to regain her seat, Onasanya did not fight the by-election. Former Labour and Respect Party MP George Galloway announced his intention to stand on a pro-Brexit position and sought the Brexit Party candidacy, but he was not selected. Although Galloway had mooted standing as an independent, he did not do so.

The Liberal Democrat campaign focused on opposition to Brexit and calling for a second referendum. Change UK, the Liberal Democrats, the Green Party and Renew were close to supporting a joint Remain candidate, Femi Oluwole of Our Future Our Choice, but they ultimately opted to stand their own candidates, except for Change UK. Change UK's Gavin Shuker said the plan was stymied by Labour, who he said made clear that Labour would "strenuously" disrupt a joint Remain campaign. Change UK reportedly blamed Labour-aligned figures in the People's Vote campaign. Oluwole denied being pressured by Labour sources, but said he was concerned about splitting the Labour vote and allowing the Brexit Party to win.

Four days before the election, Labour was urged by Jewish leaders to disown its candidate Lisa Forbes after she was reported as endorsing a Facebook post that contained an antisemitic phrase.

Brexit Party candidate Mike Greene was criticised for profiteering from freehold properties and his involvement with Greybull Capital, a private investment group involved in the May 2019 collapse of British Steel. A spokesman for Greene stated that he was never an active participant in running the investment vehicle.

When polls closed, the Brexit Party had been heavily favoured in bookmakers' odds to win, with Labour a distant second favourite.

Results
The winner's percentage of the total vote (30.9%) was the lowest at a by-election since the 1946 Combined English Universities by-election (30.0%). Numerous lower shares have won at general elections.

Reaction to results
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn welcomed the result as an endorsement of his party's stance: "This result shows that in spite of the divisions and deadlock over Brexit, when it comes to a vote on the issues that directly affect people’s lives, Labour’s case for real change has strong support across the country".

Despite the loss, Brexit Party candidate Mike Greene characterised the result as a significant breakthrough for his party, claiming to have "shaken up British politics". Party leader Nigel Farage attended the count, but he left before the result was announced.

After the results were announced, it was claimed that Labour Party activist Tariq Mahmood, who was jailed in 2008 for postal vote interference, had played a role in the Labour Party's campaign for the by-election. Labour denied he had had any role in the campaign, although he did attend the count as a member of the public.

Five electoral fraud allegations were under investigation by the police, but three were soon dismissed.