User:Patelurology2/PRFit

PRFit         new article content ...

<!--- http://www.atsb.gov.au/media/5163181/AE-2014-054_MH370%20-FlightPathAnalysisUpdate.pdf Au Investigator's Charting report  -- see the report for diagram... the diagram above is to show the path charting that is needed will be somewhat similar to as in above diag ... our charting will need to be done in various poss modes of flight and except for one mode all others will mostly be with angles at the rings http://www.atsb.gov.au/newsroom/news-items/2015/mh370%E2%80%94eoi.aspx MH370—Call for Expressions of Interest to Prepare for Recovery Operations The REOI closes at 2pm (AEDT) on 18 February 2015  -- My Take: they are looking for people to lift the wreckage but not looking for our kind of effort!! i.e. to chart ... the charting in above link has lots of probabilies factored in but try and understand... http://www.atsb.gov.au/mh370.aspx search diagram by aus Path Charting Images Google Search https://www.google.com/search?q=mh370+path+charting&sa=N&espv=2&biw=1280&bih=911&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&ei=7i7OVLWICZa1sQTc_YHgBA&ved=0CD8QsAQ4Cg http://www.duncansteel.com/ this is site where I have presence and the name is Arvind Patel check with control-F but I will get all those write ups some links mentioned before are in archives-- the site now doesn't have open input facility unless we the RKCians have a concrete charting by say writing a software program to fit three BTO Ping rings and conceptually it is easy to understand by reading about the Swiveller concept ( my own crystallization- but Dickens has a character named Swiveller  https://www.google.com/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=swiveller ) ... type search ( control-F ) word Swiveller here.... http://www.flightglobal.com/features/mh370/ closest someone comes to explaining the importance of fitting "middle" three rings... but again as the Pilot did indicate backtracking strategy to see where the turn occurred and all which I have advocated time and again in Duncansteel forum https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B-r3yuaF2p72ZkNWN1U5bklEbTA/view?pli=1 My Take: Well meaning Prof of Maths is on crusade but that has a lot of hide and seeks and possibly stems from disgust about airing half truths and taking actions not explainable for the goal and could even be nefarious.. we avoid this and simply do our best to chart the most of the southern sojourn of the aircraft... http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/22/us-malaysia-airlines-disaster-idUSKBN0KV0BV20150122 more why we need to act in this and and following links where confidence is shaken.. http://www.inquisitr.com/1780054/malaysia-airlines-flight-370-authorities-prepare-salvage-operation-still-no-sign-of-fuselage/ http://www.ibtimes.com/mh370-missing-plane-will-very-likely-be-found-good-condition-says-search-chief-1785744 http://www.flightglobal.com/features/mh370/ http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-26503141 update by BBC 1/30/15 http://jeffwise.net/2014/11/22/how-we-can-tell-how-fast-mh370-was-flying/

Note that this technique doesn't allow you to learn anything about the speed prior to 20:41. However, as noted above, Brian Anderson’s technique suggests a speed between 19:40 and 20:40 of about 494 knots (   http://www.duncansteel.com/archives/806/comment-page-6#comment-6213  ), and Malaysian radar data allows us to calculate a speed prior to 18:22. All of these speeds are very approximate, yet they seem broadly consistent with ground speeds in the vicinity of 500 knots.

My Take: Ground speed and in turn air speeds are all to be derived by the charting of the path and is complex process ridden with several catch 22 e.g. calculation of effective wind vector component requires the direction of the final path being travelled! and hence in this multiple simultaneous equation solving problem which may require future revisiting the calculations requires a good software program... all the logics and data needed for this is with me... In the mention of Great circle and all don't get worried about the meaning... Aircraft flying is assumed to be around a globe and this is the Great Circle reference All flight modes are by Great Circle but some confusion is often inserted and no calcs can be done on a flat map..

http://www.duncansteel.com/archives/666 did a best-fit analysis on possible routes. In essence he asked himself this question: “I want to know the assumed-constant aircraft speed which will render a single great circle path between P_18_29 and a final location on the 00:11 UTC ping ring, defined by minimising the ping arc error.” The ‘ping arc error’ is defined here as the distance the aircraft is from the ping ring arcs at the times of each of the pings. (This sort of least-squares fit is what good physicists do three times a day before breakfast, just for the heck of it; but.......)

The point is that this renders two ‘most-likely’ speeds, one for a northerly route and one for a southerly route, based on the working hypothesis that the aircraft followed a constant heading great circle path after 18:29.

My take:Our work is based on this assumption of relatively constant heading/path southwards; we need to calc the direction by all the different modes with wind magnetics and constant path/heading as the case may be...

Opportunity for us to be on the World Stage to locate MH370 and our group has the tools to chart the path to splash down... In short we need software programmers to step forward for the task at hand http://www.duncansteel.com/  Treasure trove... but the procedure step by step is not transparent enough.. I have several posts in our circuit... but now it is time for our group-action...

http://www.ibtimes.com/mh370-missing-plane-will-very-likely-be-found-good-condition-says-search-chief-1785744   -- as of now what is going on and area charted but the procedure on how is missing in action.... closest some explanation are forthcoming is in Duncansteel forum... need to clearly reason how to get at least part of the path that can be charted without assumptions....               Now let us chart this as a group where we have aviators ( I am one ), mathematicians ( I am of lower order --next topic ), scientists , geographers, software programmers ( not my cup.. ) and other logicians who can get-together to solve this riddle described by me starting with the first of a series of e-mails that the problem is filled with simultaneous/quadratics at the First Blush even without knowing ( remember that I am a basic Mathematician but had to drop Maths in RKC-- could have done both Bio and Maths and RKC take note--) the meaning of the latter all; identified several catch 22 in this all the directions ( which are going to be within few degrees of each other- as factors impacting e.g wind magnetics were not large ) of the final path affecting the input factors and hence for the simplest to chart the mode of flight via autopilot True Track Hold was described by me as an original descriptor i.e. The Swiveller Concept ( my own original way of describing ....described before -- see archives ).... Other modes require patience via manual means i.e. simple estimation and line drawing but would still get gross errors as the scale would magnify the error ( also errors would be in the scaled Swiveller ruler concept.. ).... Hence the need to use spreadsheets where the error can be reduced to negligible but again would be somewhat tedious.... Hence the need for you all especially the programmers to write an original new software (( I feel some non-Civil aviation depts ( restricting comments-- I do not think the Civil aviation field had an exact program ( or even an adoptable program ) for this exact task before MH370 and feel that someone may have worked on this program since but don't assume as everyone thinks that the officials are working... but they may have not adopted a pre-existing programs for the task or written a special one either--- we only need is to fit 3 good rings which are roughly hour apart by all the the possible flight modes and give line drawing which are going to be lined intersecting all three rings and would be at an angle to the middle ring except the flight mode called True Track Hold.... then the other aviation experts will take care of the rest in terms of which is most likely mode etc will be give the possibilities--- Occam's Razor -- probabilities and aviation nuances Ruleth then...http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occam%27s_razor   http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayes%27_theorem    )  would/should have such software specially written for their needs and it is possible that such is being used without revealing )).. Anyway, inasmuch as transparency should rule, I call upon you to partake to your ability in programming and execution of this task... I will provide aviation aspects... raw data that matters i.e. satellite distances at known times ( chiefly the hour interval pings for which distances are known-- 3 such rings can be fitted via spreadsheets initially and other rings thereafter but with programming again just using those three rings a good fit can be achieved for all the modes of flight i.e. True Track hold/Mag Track hold/ True Heading hold/Mag Heading hold/ -- wind being a factor in all either affecting the speed and/direction of the path; the Mags charts and all respective formulas and conceptuals to write the program. My take ( written elsewhere and pasted here explains some more ): have participated on Duncansteels.com forum with contribution chiefly being e.g stressing that fitting the best three BTO rings ( arcs 3, 4, 5 ) would suffice to chart a straight line path say in True Track mode ( which would be straight line in that mode ) and for almost 1 hour interval between the BTO rings the segments would be equal on both sides ( will give ground track traveled over 1 hour i.e Ground speed from which Airspeed can be derived- see later ) and can be manually found by using a transparent ruler ( to demo the concept  ) Swivelling using center line as a fulcrum and getting equal length on both sides-- this happens only at one path direction and has been say charted by Dr Bobby Ulich to be 192 degrees ( though I have crystallized the concept, I have not charted the path which short of dedicated de novo programming seems to be with Excel spreadsheet to see fit  by him-- see his work through  links above and see other modes. I have advocated the Swiveller as an exercise for High schoolers/scouts/junior aviators to get a grasp on aviation/navigation basics with application. Fit the paths and try extending backwards into the Strait to see if some characteristics of the meander in the Strait can be derived...

the following are for your info and label and all may not reflect the meanings... and the data set will be available as our group's interest evolves....

I would like to recognize some conceptually parallel input in Prof Steel's website posthttp://www.duncansteel.com/archives/806#comment-6213 Brian Anderson 2014/05/31 AT 19:02 my take:Anderson used between rings triangular maths to find Airspeed 496 : That one and ours also need to "add or Take The Wind Out of the Airspeed" -- our fitting of the Airborne Ping rings will also do that with direction also --- 8 th arc and all latest talk is ok but need direction. The next exercise is for the Heading Hold flight course where the wind will have effect so that the resultant flight will be sinuous but that will need to wait...

and my only comment in ( I took time to imbibe the website and wrote e-mails to professor till I get to speed-- seems I caught up and waiting for return of the forum where I am not likely to excel in anything particular-- might be able to contribute to synthesis around aviation nuances accounting for every drop of fuel used up to where are all these radars etc..... : HTTP://WWW.DUNCANSTEEL.COM/ARCHIVES/806#COMMENT-5890  Arvind Patel... 2014/05/29 AT 17:08 It seems to me that the neutral point P_18_29 ( or as revised ) at the junction of So and No arcs should be considered a point with some certain less reliability for final “single chosen heading mode” ( this could have heading and wind an all such considered and factored ) path fitting which probably is best done in a backtrack manner; fitting the distal pings under full power ( before any engine flame out ) and then going backwards to see a possibility of defining a location of, say, a missed approach; a mention of Andaman and reverse illustrates this point in construct, though I have yet to understand that fit.

New data : http://www.dca.gov.my/mainpage/MH370%20Data%20Communication%20Logs.pdf

table from Prof Duncan's website just before above new data released: figures are probably still in range  and after all this is an exercise

Time UTC	Elevation angle from aircraft to satellite (degrees)	Radius of range ring on Earth’s surface (kilometres)

my take comments same as next column

use whichever you prefer nm or kilo	Radius ( this is not earths radius ) of range ring on Earth’s surface(nautical miles)

My take conceptually the rings that matter are to be Up in The Air

could be that these radii are just those i.e up in the air and then i will assured... KML filename

for my alumni: skip; that is more details for you

MY TAKE ADDED

use only almost full hourly ping radii i.e. 19:40 to 22:40 ok last leg difference is large creating favorable ( more discriminant angle and distance ) fitting so is the time ( THE LENGTH OF SEGMENT HAS TO BE simple math proportionately large- Pytho doesn't apply ) but a quit engine in there need to be considered

18:27:47 	52.2   MY TAKE: do not use this in initial fitting ? meandering possible	3615	1952	PR_18_27_47 19:40:30	54.8	3361	1815	PR_19_40_30 20:40:26	54.1	3430	1852	PR_20_40_26 21:40:xx	51.6	3674	1984	PR_21_40_XX 22:40:19	47.3	4097	2212	PR_22_40_19 00:10:48	40.1	4813	2599	PR_00_10_48 Maths: https://www.google.com/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=mh370+mathematics http://beforeitsnews.com/scandals/2014/04/mh370-search-area-is-wrong-here-is-why-diegogarcia-2433866.html the problem is that is gross area and can be refined by Ping Ring Fitting; fuel on board i.e. range can be secondary info as the a/c did fly upto the last Ping sent back!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gdIkXaJ_YQE complex -- follow and learn http://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/missing-malaysia-airlines-flight-mh370-search-goes-back-to-basics-turning-to-the-power-of-maths-to-solve-the-mystery/story-fnizu68q-1226941119783 --->