User:Philc 0780/Sandbox/FIFA World Rankings

The FIFA World Rankings is a ranking system for national teams in football (soccer). The teams of the member nations of FIFA (Fédération Internationale de Football Association), football's world governing body, are ranked based on their game results with the most successful teams being ranked highest. A point system is used, with points being awarded based on the results of matches played in FIFA-recognized international competitions. Under the existing system, rankings are based on a team's performance over the last eight years, with more recent results being more heavily weighted to help reflect the current competitive state of a team. Teams delivering consistently good performances tend to be more highly ranked, and the system currently in use is somewhat slow to respond to significant changes in a team's performance. A new system, based on results over only four years, and with other amendments to the criteria, has been introduced after the 2006 World Cup. The first edition of the new series of rankings was issued on 12 July 2006.

Other alternative systems have been devised, such as the World Football Elo Ratings, based on the Elo rating system used in chess, ranking teams on an all time basis. The UFWC (Unofficial Football World Championships) ranks teams on the number of times they have defended the Unofficial Football World Championship, an award devised solely for that purpose. Top 20 Rankings as of July 2006

History
FIFA World Ranking Leaders In August 1992 FIFA, working in co-operation with sponsor Coca-Cola, introduced a ranking system for senior national teams intended to provide a fair basis of comparison of the relative strengths of these teams. This system has been used by FIFA ever since and has seen some major changes to the calculation principles in its short history. The most significant changes were implemented in 1999, in order to allow FIFA's system to compete with the Elo ratings, which were considered a more accurate, credible depiction of the teams' rankings.

1999 update
When the rankings were initially introduced, a team received one point for a draw and three for a victory in FIFA-recognized matches - much the same as a traditional league scoring system. This was a quite simplistic approach, however, and FIFA quickly realised that there were many factors affecting international matches. In order to meet the objective of fairly and accurately comparing the relative strengths of various national sides, the system was updated. The major changes were as follows:


 * the point ranking was scaled up by a factor of ten
 * the method of calculation was changed to take into account factors including:
 * the number of goals scored or given up
 * whether the match was played at home or away
 * the importance of a match or competition
 * regional strength
 * a fixed number of points were no longer necessarily awarded for a victory or a draw
 * match losers were able to earn points

Two new awards were introduced as part of the system:
 * Team of the Year
 * Best Mover of the Year

The changes made the ranking system more complex, but helped improve its accuracy by making it more comprehensive.

2006 update
FIFA announced that the ranking system would be updated following the 2006 World Cup. The evaluation period has been cut from eight to four years and the rankings will be based on a simplified method of calculation. Goals scored and home or away advantage is no longer be taken into account, and other aspects of the calculations, including the importance attributed to different types of match, have been revised. The revised rankings &mdash; and calculation methodology &mdash; were announced on 12 July 2006.

This change is rooted at least in part in widespread criticism of the previous ranking system. Many football enthusiasts felt it was inaccurate &mdash; especially when compared to other ranking systems &mdash; and that it was not sufficiently responsive to changes in the performance of individual teams. The recent and unexpectedly high rankings of teams from the Czech Republic and the United States were generally met with skepticism and negatively affected the credibility of the system in the eyes of many followers of the sport. The poor showings and early exit of these two sides from the 2006 World Cup competition appears to lend some credence to the criticism.

Rank leaders
When the system was introduced, Germany debuted as the top ranked team following their extended period of dominance in which they had reached the three previous FIFA World Cup finals, winning one of them. Brazil took the lead in the run up to the 1994 FIFA World Cup, after winning eight and losing only one of nine qualification matches, while on the way scoring twenty goals and conceding just four. Italy then led for a short time on the back of their own equally successful World Cup qualifying campaign, after which the top place was re-claimed by Germany.

Brazil's success in their lengthy qualifying campaign returned them to the lead for a brief period. Germany led again during the 1994 World Cup, until Brazil’s victory in that competition gave them a large lead that would stand up for nearly seven years, until they were surpassed by a strong France team that captured both the 1998 FIFA World Cup and the 2000 European Football Championship. Success at the 2002 FIFA World Cup restored Brazil to the top position, where they have remained ever since on the strength of a Copa América 2004 victory and their continued dominant play. Italy rise to second following their FIFA World Cup victory, and within 100 hundred points of Brazil, who played poorly in the competition, Italy are possible challengers for the leader position.

Uses of the rankings
The rankings are used by FIFA to rank the progression and current ability of the national football teams of its member nations. The data is used by FIFA for very few things, as FIFA says they are only to create "a reliable measure for comparing national A-teams". However, one task they are used for is as part of the calculation to seed competitions. The rankings are also used to determine the winners of the two annual awards national teams receive on the basis of their performance in the rankings.

Seeding in the 2006 World Cup
Below is a table showing how the rankings (current and past standings) were used in combination with the previous World Cup performances of national teams, to determine their seeds for the 2006 FIFA World Cup. It uses the points obtained from the 1998 FIFA World Cup and the 2002 FIFA World Cup averaged in a 1:2 ratio respectively, added to the average amount of points that each team has at three given dates (at ratio 1:1:1), December 2003, December 2004, and November 2005. This generates a view to how well the teams have performed over the last ten years (since the rankings in 2003 include results from eight years previous to that) with a specific focus on how the teams have performed in the FIFA World Cup on previous occasions. If a team did not qualify for the previous two World Cups, their final total will be significantly less, hence the Czech Republic received a low score for seeding, despite being ranked sixth, fourth, and second in the world at the given dates.

Criticism
Since their introduction in 1993, the FIFA World Rankings have been the matter of much debate, particularly regarding the calculation procedure and the resulting disparity between generally perceived quality and world ranking of some teams. For example Norway was ranked second in October 1993 and July-August 1995, and the United States reached fourth, to the surprise of even their own players.

Pre-tournament betting odds for 2006 FIFA World Cup  show enormous discrepancy between the comparative likelihood of victory in the tournament and the FIFA rankings at the beginning of the tournament, particularly for Germany, Ukraine, the USA and Iran. Comparison of one betting table with the rankings list gives Spearman's ρ=0.69.

One thing that has been criticised is that the rankings consider the performances of teams over an eight year period, and that teams' ranking positions do not correlate to their recent performances. This criticism should lessen with the introduction of a new formula, reflecting results over a four year period, from July 2006.

The perceived flaws in the FIFA system has lead to the creation of a number of alternative rankings from football statisticians including the World Football Elo Ratings and the rec.sport.soccer Statistics Foundation rankings.

FIFA's change of system for calculation of these rankings and their adoption of a different formula for World Cup seedings may be seen as an implicit admission of the shortcomings of the current formula.

Overview
After the 2006 FIFA World Cup, a new revised calculation procedure for the FIFA rankings was introduced; it is a significantly simplified procedure. The new rankings were compiled in response to criticism from the media. Meetings were attended by FIFA staff and external experts an a large amount of research was conducted by this group, that resulted in the new rankings, the new system maws confirmed in Leipzig, on the 7 December 2005 by a committee of FIFA executives. Notable changes include the complete dropping of the home or away advantage and number of goals from the calculation altogether.

The system, as all the previous ones is extremely similar to that of a league, though with changes made to ensure that it is still representative of the teams performance despite the differing number of matches per annum, and the differing strength of opposition that teams have to face. The factors taken into account are as follows; Matches within the previous four ear period are included in the calculation; matches after that period are not used in the procedure.
 * Match result
 * Match status
 * Opposition strength
 * Regional strength determined by confederation weightings

Win, draw or defeat
Whereas in previous years a complicated system of points allocation was used depending on how strong the opponent was, and how large the loss margin, even allowing weaker losing teams to gain points when playing a much stronger opposition, if they managed to put up a decent match. Now, the points allocation is simple, three points for a win, one point for a draw, and zero points for a loss, this is exactly the same as all league systems.

In the event of a match being decided by a penalty shootout, the winning team receives two points, and the loser’s one (which for the losers is the same as the draw which they earned).

Match status
Different matches have different importance to teams, and FIFA has tried to respect this by using a weighting system. Where the most weighted, and therefore regarding the rankings, considered the most important matches, are world cup matches. The lowest weighted ones are friendlies, however FIFA states that it wishes to recognise that friendlies are still important, since they make up of half of the competitive matches counted in the rankings.

The weighting multipliers are as follows;

Calculation method from 1999 - 2006
The FIFA world rankings are fundamentally the same as a league system, though on a much larger, and more complex scale. Each team can potentially win a certain number of points in each match, though the number of points awarded, in a league system depends solely on the result of the match, in the FIFA rankings far more has to be taken into account, as every team does not play all of the other teams home and away every season, as in most league systems. After the awarding of points, the teams are then organized into descending order by the number of points, with the team with the most, being the highest ranked.

The points allocated did not depend solely on whether a team wins, loses or draws their match, but also on the importance of the match and the strength of the opponent. A win over a weak opponent will result in less points being awarded than a win over a much stronger one. This means that a match will not result in the two or three points for a win and one for a draw, as is standard in most national league competitions. The calculation is more complex since it has to incorporate the other aforementioned factors.

Since the Rankings were revised in 1999 changes have taken place, one of which FIFA has dubbed the "scaling up", where the points on offer for a match have been roughly multiplied by ten, with the addition of more factors. Now teams can receive between zero and thirty points for a single match, and the leaders of the rankings have over eight hundred points.

Overview
The system explained is the one used to calculate the rankings from 1999 to 2006. This revision was be replaced with a newer one following the 2006 FIFA World Cup.

The rankings were intended by FIFA to give a fair ranking of all FIFA member associations’ senior national teams. For the ranking all matches, their scores and importance were all recorded, and were used in the calculation procedure. Only matches for the senior national team were included, separate rankings were used for other representative national sides, such as the woman’s and junior teams, for example the FIFA Women's World Rankings. Interestingly, FIFA did not use the same formula to determine its rankings for women's football. The women's rankings are based on a procedure which is a simplified version of the Football Elo Ratings.

For the purposes of calculating the importance of matches, each match was divided into one of six categories. Competitions that were not endorsed by the appropriate continental association of FIFA are counted as friendlies. Each category is given appropriate weighting in the calculation in order to correctly include the importance. The six categories were:


 * World Cup finals matches
 * World Cup preliminary matches
 * FIFA Confederations Cup matches
 * Continental championships final matches
 * Continental championship preliminary matches
 * Friendly matches

A computer program was used to calculate the rankings, points were awarded according the following criteria:


 * Winning, drawing and losing
 * Importance of the match (multiplication factor)
 * Regional strength (multiplication factor)

In order to try and remove the obvious advantage of having more matches, only the best seven matches each year were taken into account, as seven was the average number of matches a team plays per year. Older matches were given diminishing importance within the calculation, in order to reward teams most recent form, until after eight years, they were completely discarded, so the calculations only take into account teams performances over the last eight years.

At the end of each season two prizes were awarded by FIFA; Team of the Year and Best Mover of the year.

Winning, drawing or losing
In any football ranking system, a win will bring more points than a draw or a loss. Until July 2006, however, FIFA believed awarding points simply on the basis of win, draw or loss, would not meet the requirements of a reliable and accurate world ranking system.

From July 2006, three points will be awarded for a win, one point for a draw, and no points for a loss but in order to create a better ranking system, the calculations will also take into account the relative strengths of the two teams. This results in more points being awarded for beating a stronger opponent, than a relatively weaker one. It also enables weak teams to earn points despite a defeat if they manage to play well (i.e. they score goals, or there is low margin of defeat), though this is a small amount and will not secure as many points as the team that beat them. In the event of a match being decided on penalties, the winners will receive the correct points for the victory. The losers will receive points for the draw which they earned in normal time.

Number of goals
When calculating the points, the number of goals is taken into consideration, and once again, the distribution of the points between the two teams is also affected by their relative strengths (i.e. the lower ranked a team is in comparison to its opponent, the more points it receives for a goal scored), and as well as points being given for goals scored, they are deducted from the total for conceding. In order to encourage more attacking football, points given for goals scored are weighted far more heavily than the deduction as a result of conceding, though most teams are more concerned with the tournament or match at hand than their position in the world rankings. When a match is decided on penalties, only those scored in playing time are included in the total.

To prevent "overweighing" goals, and huge amounts of points being dealt in runaway victories, far more weighting is attached to the initial goal by each team, and progressively less points for any subsequent ones. This is done in the agreement that the goals scored are important but the most important factor is the win or loss, as in normal championship games.

Home and away games
To allow for the extra handicap incurred by playing away from home, a small bonus of three points per match is awarded to the away team. Note that to prevent this from affecting the points dealt in tournaments played on neutral territory, but with a home team, such a World Cup Finals, there are no bonus points given.

Status of a match
The relative game importance is also considered when calculating the points. The method for incorporating this into the totals points’ allocation is by multiplying the match points by a predetermined weighting. These factors are:

Regional strength factors
As between the various continents there are quite significant differences in national team strengths, weighting factors are worked out each year for each confederation. The basis of the evaluation and resulting factors is the member teams of the confederation's performances in intercontinental encounters and competitions, at the end of every season, a continental ranking list is calculated, based on the same criteria as the FIFA rankings. Not all the intercontinental matches are taken into account, but only matches between the strongest 25 percent of teams from each continent, with a minimum of five teams from each continent considered. This way errors that could be caused by considering matches where relatively strong teams from one confederation defeat weak teams from another, are averted.

The weightings (shown below) are applied in the form of multiplication factors for teams from the same continent. If teams from two different confederations are involved in one match then the factor applied is the average of the two continental weightings.

For 2005, the following weighting factors were applied:

After the 2006 FIFA World Cup, these weighting factors were amended. They now reflect the number of wins each confederation has recorded against other confederations at the last three World Cups.

Summary
Based on the above considerations, the total number of points credited to a team after a match will depend on the following criteria:

Where:
 * w = Points for winning, drawing or losing
 * g = Points for goals scored in this game
 * c = Points for the goals conceded
 * a = Bonus for the away team
 * s = Appropriate factor for the status of the match
 * r = Appropriate factor for regional strength
 * m = Points Received

( w + g + a &minus; c ) s r = m

The number of points for a win, draw or loss, as well as for the number of goals scored or conceded is dependent on the strength of the opponent. In order not to punish a lack of success too severely, a negative points total is rounded up to 0.00.

These examples have also been used on the Elo football ratings for a fair comparison. Here are some calculation examples to show the formula being used. For simplicity in this instance it is assumed that three teams of different strengths are involved in a small friendly tournament on neutral territory.

Note:no away team bonus, nor continental or status multiplication factors are applied.

Before the tournament the three team have the following point totals: As shown, team A is by some distance the highest ranked of the three: The following table shows the divisions of point allocations based on three possible outcomes of the match between the far stronger team A, and the somewhat weaker team B:

Example 1
Team A versus Team B (Team A stronger than Team B)

As is shown on the table, in the case of a 3:1 win, team a receives an allocation of 21.0 points, however, since team A is a much higher ranked team, the win alone earns only 17.4 of the total points, and the much lower ranked team B still manages to earn 1.7 points. Had match been won 3:1 by the far weaker team B, they would have received 27.2 points, whilst team A would have received a negative total of points, which would then have been rounded up to 0.0. If the result had been a 2:2 draw, since it is the lower-rated team, B would have earned a few points more than team A.

Example 2
Team B versus Team C (both teams approximately the same strength)

When the difference in strength between the two teams is less, so also will be the difference in points allocation. The following table shows how the points would be divided following the same results as above, but with two roughly equally ranked teams, B and C, being involved:

As is shown in the.

Comparison with Elo ratings
Assuming team B drew with team A and lost to team C the table now stands (decimals rounded);

As you can see, as the criticism suggests, the FIFA rankings have been slow to respond to Team Bs considerable drop in form, with despite Team Cs underdog victory, the margin between it and Team B is still ten points, whereas in the Elo rankings, team C has overtaken team B. Also in the FIFA rankings, team A despite having drawn with a team significantly lower ranked than itself, has still gained 8 points, whereas in the Elo rankings has lost 4. However in the Elo rankings, team B who managed a draw with significantly higher ranked team A, have lost a position in the rankings due to only a single poor result, and have overall lost almost ten points.

Further criteria
To increase the level of accuracy and objectivity of the rankings, after the 1999 revision further criteria was introduced. Firstly, the number of matches a team plays within a given period of time would be taken into account. Secondly, the importance attached to previous results would be interpreted differently.

The number of matches played
In order to ensure that an increased number of fixtures in a given season does not give a team more potential points, the rankings only consider a limited amount of results. This amount was determined by deciding how many fixtures in a season an "averagely active team" would participate in, this was agreed to be between seven and ten matches a year.

In order to prevent teams with fewer fixtures than this been disadvantaged, the calculation initially considers only the best seven results of a team. To include further results an average of them must be calculated.

For example, if a team played twelve matches, the calculation would run as;


 * The best seven of the 12 results are identified
 * The total score for these seven matches is calculated (X)
 * The total score for all 12 matches is calculated
 * This total is divided by 12 and multiplied by seven (Y)
 * The total for the seven best results is added to the seven "average" results (X+Y)
 * This total (X+Y) is divided by two for the final score

Previous results
In order to assure that the rankings best reflect team’s current form, the most recent results are of greatest importance; however attention is also paid to the results of previous years. The results from the preceding year are given full weighting, with the results from two years before given seven eighths of their value, those from three years before given six eighths, and so on until after eight years the results are dropped from calculation completely.

Awards
Each year FIFA hands out two awards to its member nations, based on their performance in the rankings. They are;

Team of the Year
Team of the Year is awarded to the team whose best seven matches of the year received the most amount of points overall.

Best Mover of the Year
Best Mover of the Year is awarded to the team who has made the best progress up the rankings over the course of the year. In the FIFA rankings, this is not simply the team that has risen the most places, but a calculation is performed in order to account for the fact that it becomes progressively harder to earn more points the higher up the rankings a team is. The calculation used is the number of points the team has at the end of the year (z) multiplied by the number of point it earned during the year (y). The team with the highest index on this calculation receives the award. The table below shows the calculation for this award in 2002.