User:Pilover819/05152008

Okay; I am here on a seperate article about tropical wave number 4.


 * Note that only EPac discussions are included here. For the discussions from 5/15 to discussion from the Atl. discussion, see May tropical waves of the Atlantic.

May 21, 2008 1005 UTC
...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED S OF 13N ALONG 76W AND HAS BEEN MOVING W AT 15 KT AND THIS MOTION WILL MOVE THE WAVE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TODAY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE WAVE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND THESE TSTMS WILL LIKELY MOVE W OVER PANAMA THIS MORNING.

May 21, 2008 1605 UTC
...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED S OF 13N ALONG 77W AND HAS BEEN MOVING W AT 10-12 KT AND THIS MOTION WILL MOVE THE WAVE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE WAVE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND THESE TSTMS WILL LIKELY MOVE W OVER PANAMA THIS AFTERNOON.

May 21, 2008 2205 UTC
...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W/78W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM COLOMBIA TO PANAMA FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 75W AND 79W.

May 22, 2008 0405 UTC
...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W/79W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM COLOMBIA TO PANAMA FROM 07N TO 08N BETWEEN 75W AND 77W. IT IS UNSURE IF THIS PRECIPITATION REALLY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

May 22, 2008 1005 UTC
...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED N OF 3N ALONG 84W AND HAS BEEN MOVING W AT ESTIMATED 15 KT. BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED NEAR THE WAVE AND THE WAVE IS UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE WITH THE ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE ENTIRE AREA FROM 03N IN THE PAC TO ALONG 15N IN THE W CARIBBEAN AND SPREADING W OVER CENTRAL AMERICA TO ALONG 92W.

May 22, 2008 1605 UTC
...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED N OF 3N ALONG 80W AND HAS BEEN MOVING W AT AN ESTIMATED 10 KT. THE WAVE IS ENCOUNTERING A BROAD AREA OF WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND THEREFORE IS VERY DIFFICULT TO TRACK. IN ANY EVENT BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED NEAR THE WAVE AXIS AND THE WAVE IS UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE WITH THE ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE ENTIRE AREA FROM 03N IN THE PAC TO ALONG 15N IN THE W CARIBBEAN AND SPREADING W OVER CENTRAL AMERICA TO ALONG 92W.

May 22, 2008 2205 UTC
...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE N OF 3N ALONG 80W MOVING W AT 10 KT. WAVE ENCOUNTERING BROAD AREA OF WLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND VERY DIFFICULT TO TRACK. BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING NEAR WAVE AXIS UNDER RIDGE ALOFT WITH ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER ENTIRE AREA FROM 03N IN E PAC TO ALONG 15N IN WRN CARIBBEAN SPREADING W OVER CENTRAL AMERICA TO ALONG 92W.

May 23, 2008 0405 UTC
...TROPICAL WAVES... ILL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE N OF 3N ALONG 80W/81W MOVING W AT 10 KT. NO SIGNS OF CYCLONIC TURNING ON IR IMAGES GIVE LITTLE CLUES ABOUT ORGANIZATION OF SYSTEM...BUT INFLUX OF PLENTY OF AVAILABLE TRPCL MOISTURE...RIDGE ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE COULD CONTRIBUTE TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG WAVE INTERSECTING ITCZ. GFS DOES INSINUATE SOME DEVELOPMENT...BUT UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS ON ITS FUTURE.

May 23, 2008 1005 UTC
...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE N OF 03N ALONG 83W/84W MOVE W AT 10 KT. NO CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. IN FACT THE REGION NEAR THE WAVE AXIS HAS LESS CONVECTION THAN THE AREAS BOTH EAST AND WEST OF THE AXIS.

May 23, 2008 1605 UTC
...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE N OF 03N ALONG 84W IS MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE WAVE IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO TRACK IN THE FACE OF A LARGE SWATH OF SURFACE WESTERLY WINDS. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 60-90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS AND WITHIN AN LARGER AREA OF CONVECTION FROM 03N TO 09N BETWEEN 80W AND 102W.

May 23, 2008 2205 UTC
...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE N OF 03N ALONG 84W NEARLY STATIONARY. THE WAVE IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO TRACK IN THE FACE OF A LARGE SWATH OF SURFACE WESTERLY WINDS. BROAD AREA OF ACTIVE CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY FROM THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS STILL NOTED WITHIN 180 NM W OF AXIS.

May 24, 2008 0405 UTC
...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE N OF 03N ALONG 84W STATIONARY. THE WAVE IS DIFFICULT TO TRACK IN THE FACE OF A LARGE SWATH OF WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS STILL NOTED WITHIN 180 NM W OF AXIS.

May 24, 2008 1005 UTC
...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE N OF 03N ALONG 85W NEARLY STATIONARY. THE WAVE IS DIFFICULT TO TRACK IN THE FACE OF A LARGE SWATH OF WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS. CONVECTION IS STILL WELL WEST OF THE WAVE AXIS...SEE NEXT PARAGRAPH.

May 24, 2008 1605 UTC
...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE N OF 03N ALONG 85W REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. THE WAVE REMAINS DIFFICULT TO TRACK IN THE FACE OF A LARGE SWATH OF WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS. CONVECTION IS FOCUSED WEST OF THE WAVE AXIS WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ...SEE NEXT PARAGRAPH.

May 24, 2008 2205 UTC
...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE N OF 03N ALONG 86W REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. THE WAVE REMAINS DIFFICULT TO TRACK IN THE FACE OF A LARGE SWATH OF WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS. IN FACT...THE WAVE MAY HAVE TO BE CONFINED TO NORTH OF 10N THROUGH EL SALVADOR AND HONDURAS IN THE NEXT SURFACE ANALYSIS WHERE SATELLITE IMAGERY...SCATTEROMETER DATA...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW BETTER CYCLONIC TURNING INDICATIVE OF A TROPICAL WAVE. CONVECTION IS FOCUSED WEST OF THE WAVE AXIS WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ...SEE NEXT PARAGRAPH.

May 25, 2008 0405 UTC
...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE N OF 12N ALONG 88W REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A VERY BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING...WITH WESTERLY WINDS NOTED TO THE SOUTH OF THE WAVE. THE WAVE IS DIFFICULT TO DETECT AS A DISTINCT FEATURE AT THIS TIME. STRONG CONVECTION IS FLARING MAINLY OVER GUATEMALA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO...APPROXIMATELY 300 NM TO THE WEST OF THE WAVE POSITION.

May 25, 2008 1005 UTC
...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS NOW ANALYZED OVER LAND N OF 13N ALONG 88W/89W AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A VERY BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING...WITH WESTERLY WINDS NOTED TO THE SOUTH OF THE WAVE. THE WAVE IS DIFFICULT TO DETECT AS A DISTINCT FEATURE AT THIS TIME. STRONG CONVECTION THAT WAS WITHIN 240 NM WEST OF THE AXIS HAS RAPIDLY DIMINISHED.

May 25, 2008 1605 UTC
...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED OVER LAND N OF 13N ALONG 89W/90W AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A VERY BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING...WITH WESTERLY WINDS NOTED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE WAVE. THESE WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO MAKE THE WAVE DIFFICULT TO DETECT AS A DISTINCT FEATURE AT THIS TIME. MOST OF THE STRONG CONVECTION THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS NOW WELL WEST OF THE WAVE...GENERALLY WITHIN 180 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 93W AND 102W. GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP IN THE AREA OF THE WAVE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

May 25, 2008 2205 UTC
...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED OVER LAND 90W APPEARS ONLY IN DATA OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THEREFORE WILL BE DROPPED FROM THE ANALYSIS IN THE E PAC. A BROAD AREA OF SW TO W WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS FROM 05N TO 11N BETWEEN 90W AND 102W. GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP NEAR 10N90W OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

May 26, 2008 0405 UTC
A BROAD AREA OF SW TO W WINDS TO 20 KT CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS FROM 3N TO 08N BETWEEN 88W AND 110W. GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP NEAR 10N90W OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.