User:Pilover819/Blog/12

2008 Pacific hurricane season starts with nothing; TS Matmo (Dindo) and TS Halong (Cosme) May 16, 2008

2008 Pacific hurricane season
Yes, the 2008 PHS has started, and I've promised to be more active on tropical cyclones. Actually, I was, but I didn't have time to put on blogs. 2008 PHS's second TWO (Tropical Weather Outlook): 000 ABPZ20 KNHC 160524 TWOEP TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 PM PDT THU MAY 15 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE LIST OF NAMES FOR 2008 IS AS FOLLOWS: (shortened due to weirdness) Alma, Boris, Cristina, Douglas, Elida, Fausto, Genevieve, Hernan, Iselle, Julio, Karina, Lowell, Marie, Norbert, Odile, Polo, Rachel, Simon, Trudy, Vance, Winnie, Xavier, Yolanda, Zeke

THIS PRODUCT...THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...BRIEFLY DESCRIBES SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER AND THEIR POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR 2008 THE ISSUANCE TIMES OF THIS PRODUCT HAVE BEEN CHANGED...TO 5 AM...11 AM...5 PM AND 11 PM PDT. AFTER THE CHANGE TO STANDARD TIME ON NOVEMBER 2...THE ISSUANCE TIMES WILL BE 4 AM...10 AM...4 PM...AND 10 PM PST.

A SEPARATE PRODUCT...THE SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT...MAY BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME TO DESCRIBE STRONG...FORMATIVE WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT HAVE NOT YET REACHED TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS. THE SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT IS ISSUED UNDER THE WMO HEADER WOPZ41 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIADSAEP.

A STANDARD PACKAGE OF PRODUCTS...CONSISTING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...THE FORECAST/ADVISORY...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DISCUSSION...AND A WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT...IS ISSUED EVERY SIX HOURS FOR ALL ONGOING TROPICAL CYCLONES. IN ADDITION...A SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE MAY BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME TO ADVISE OF SIGNIFICANT UNEXPECTED CHANGES OR TO MODIFY WATCHES OR WARNINGS. '''PLEASE NOTE THAT BEGINNING IN 2008...PUBLIC ADVISORIES ARE NOW ISSUED WITH EVERY EAST PACIFIC ADVISORY PACKAGE.'''

AN ADDITIONAL PRODUCT...WITH WHICH USERS MAY BE LESS FAMILIAR...IS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE IS A BRIEF STATEMENT TO INFORM OF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR TO POST OR CANCEL WATCHES OR WARNINGS. IT IS USED IN LIEU OF OR TO PRECEDE THE ISSUANCE OF A SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE. TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES...WHICH CAN BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME...CAN BE FOUND UNDER WMO HEADER WTPZ61-65 KNHC...AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCUEP1-5.

ALL NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TEXT AND GRAPHICAL PRODUCTS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$ FORECASTER BEVEN/ROBERTS

TS Matmo (Dindo)
Tropical Storm Matmo is weakening as it nears cooler waters and as it starts to lose tropical characteristics. As of now, the last advisory was issued: REMARKS: 160900Z POSITION NEAR 25.5N 133.1E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (MATMO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NAHA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 22 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. '''THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 16 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 05W (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW 160900) FOR SIX- HOURLY UPDATES.

But this doesn't tell you if it's becoming extratropical or just weakening. Here's proof: FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 26.6N 136.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT  WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 22 KTS ---  24 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 27.6N 141.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT  WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 22 KTS ---  36 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 28.1N 146.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT  WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- As you see, it's extratropical.

TS Halong
Well, there's another cyclone out in the West Pacific, and it's called Cosme or Halong. The JMA has attached the name "Halong" to 05W.

Latest advisory by the JTWC: REMARKS: 160900Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 117.9E. TROPICAL STORM (TD) 05W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM WEST OF MANILLA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z, 162100Z, 170300Z AND 170900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 04W (MATMO) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW 160900) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. //

From the JMA, it is supposed to strengthen into a typhoon 60 hours out.