User:Ptacademic/Saurin shah and hybrids

Saurin D. Shah (born 1966) is a Senior Vice President at Neuberger Berman LLC. He is the author of a chapter (chapter 2) entitled, "Electrification of Transport and Oil Displacement: How Plug-Ins Could Lead to a 50 Percent Reduction in U.S. Demand for Oil," in Plug-In Electrical Vehicles: What Role for Washington? which was edited by David B. Sandalow and published by Brookings Institution in 2009 (http://www.amazon.com/Plug-Electric-Vehicles-What-Washington/dp/0815703058). An unique aspect of this work are the penetration rates (or S-curves) of historical analogs to the hybrid and electrical vehicles he presents in an attempt to gauge how quickly the vehicle stock could be hybridized and/or electrified in the United States. The analogs are 1) the electric motors in U.S. factories in the early twentieth century, 2) diesel electric locomotives on U.S. railways in the 1920-1945 period, 3) a range of new automotive features/technologies introduced in new cars sold in the U.S. over the past fifty years, and 4) e-bikes in China over the past few years. According to Shah, electric motors effectively displaced the prevailing technologies of stream, water, and oil power on the factory floor to capture 80% of U.S. manufacturing capacity within approximately 40 years after their first introduction in about 1889. Similarly, he discusses how diesel electric locomotives, arguably transportation's first hybrid system, displaced steam locomotives on railway lines to constitute 80% of the U.S. locomotive stock in a span of about 20 years from introduction. He also highlights the historical adoption rates of nine automotive features (ranging from air conditioning to radial tires) in the U.S. to illustrate how these technological innovations achieved 80% penetration rates among new cars sold in about 17 years from introduction, which implies constituting 80% of the entire passenger vehicle stock in about 30 years. These analogs collectively suggest it would take at least 30 years for hybrid and electric vehicles to capture 80% of the U.S. passenger vehicle stock. Saurin D. Shah is also the co-author of AllianceBernstein's June 2006 report titled, "The Emergence of Hybrid Vehicles: Ending Oil's Stranglehold on Transportation and the Economy." (http://www.calcars.org/calcars-news/493.html)