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A 8.1 or 8.0 earthquake struck 7 km southwest of Long Island, Saidor District, Madang Province, Papua on 18 January 2024 at 16:09 PGT (06:09 UTC). The megathrust-faulting shock achieved a maximum Modified Mercalli intensity of XI (Extreme). The shaking and accompanying tsunami caused widespread destruction in Madang Province, particularly in Karkar, Long Island and Saidor, with the neighbouring provinces of Morobe, Highlands and New Britain also recording significant damage. Across six provinces, about US$73.2 billion worth of damage was caused and over 9,800 people died, with over 44,000 others injured, making it the deadliest and costliest earthquake in Papua since the 2018 Highlands earthquake. Globally, it is the deadliest earthquake since the 2023 Turkey–Syria earthquakes, and the sixth costliest earthquake of all time, not adjusted for inflation.

It led to Papua's first major tsunami warning since the 2016 Makira earthquake, and a tsunami of 13.2 m was measured across the Bismarck Sea region, killing hundreds of people and causing further destruction in coastal communities.

Tectonic setting
The primary tectonic feature of the 1200 km island chain is the New Hebrides Subduction Zone, the convergent boundary of the Indo-Australian and Pacific Plates. Along the Wadati–Benioff zone, earthquake activity has been observed as shallow, intermediate, and deep-focus events at depths of up to 700 km. Volcanic activity is also present along this north-northwest trending and northeast-dipping oceanic trench.

While much of the island arc experiences intermediate-depth earthquakes along a Wadati–Benioff zone that dips steeply at 70°, the area adjacent to the d'Entrecasteaux Ridge does not. There is a corresponding gap in seismicity that occurs below 50 km where it intrudes into the subduction zone from the west. According to the NUVEL-1 global relative plate motion model, convergence is occurring at roughly 8 cm per year. The uncertainty, which also affects the Tonga arc, is due to the influence of spreading at the North Fiji Basin.

Earthquake
The United States Geological Survey reported a moment magnitude of 8.0 and focal depth of 10 km (6.2 mi) for the earthquake, making it the largest earthquake in Papua since 2018, and the largest globally since the 2021 South Sandwich Islands earthquakes. The focal mechanism of the mainshock corresponded to shallow reverse faulting along a southeast-trending plane dipping southeast or northwest.

Ground effects
About 217 km of coastline spanning Long Island, Karkar and Saidor, was raised and the shore moved seawards by up to 400 m. The southeastern coast of Karkar was uplifted up to 5 m while at the island's fishing port, a tide gauge was rendered unusable because the seafloor was exposed.

The PGA said parts of the country moved up to 2.6 m southwards with the maximum displacement observed at Long Island due to crustal deformation. At Saidor, land shifted 1 m (3 ft) northwards. However, the agency said these movements could be slope or local ground movement instead. The agency also added that crustal uplift of 5 m occurred in southwestern Long Island and 4.1 m in southeastern Karkar. Near Karkar's port, the shoreline of a sandy beach was moved 250 m (820 ft) seawards due to the coastal uplift. The coastline in Karim, Long Island moved 300 m seawards due to the coastal uplift, while the land area expanded by a total of 4.8 square kilometers.

Across Rai Coast District and Long Island, landslides were widespread. There were also extensive slope failures, particularly in Rai Coast. The number of landslides was estimated at over 16,000. At least nine landslide dams were discovered in the Long Island area on 26 January, which had the potential to cause debris avalanches. In Karkar, a landslide dam caused water to overflow downstream into fields, potentially causing a collapse. In Kainantu, Highlands Province, a landslide measuring 16,000 m3 (570,000 cu ft) buried a section of the Highlands Highway.

Intensity
The PGA recorded a maxinum Mercalli intensity of X (Extreme) on Long Island and Karkar, making it the first earthquake to reach that intensity since the 2019 New Ireland earthquake. A study conducted by the agency on Long Island found that the town of Karim in Long Island, one of the closest populated areas to the epicenter, registered a peak ground acceleration of 2.89 g, corresponding to a maximum Mercalli intensity of XI (Extreme). Shaking on the island lasted over a minute.

Out of the 463 million inhabitants of New Guinea Prefecture, 338 million (73%) felt shaking above intensity V.

Tsunami
The highest tsunami wave reached 13.2 m in Long Island, three minutes after the earthquake. Waves measuring 10.2 m were observed in Tolokiwa, and a 6 m wave hit Madang. Tsunami waves exceeding 9.4 m struck Saidor, while in Karkar, the tsunami was 2.4 m high. 1.6 m high waves struck Finschhafen, while a 1 m wave hit Lae. Waves exceeding 80 cm also struck Kandrian. Waves of up to 1.2 m were reported in Wewak, while 50 cm waves struck Aitape. In Tarragona, Philippines, a 90 cm high tsunami caused damage to several coastal houses.

Damage
In Karkar, the tsunami destroyed over 1,000 houses and killed 105 people on the island. Experts said the tsunami destruction was exacerbated by the island sinking by 50 cm following the earthquake, and collapsed houses blocking access to remote villages slowed rescue efforts for many hours. At least 522 tsunami-related deaths also occurred on Long Island, where the tsunami destroyed many houses, picking up cars and debris as it reached over 200 m inland.

Tsunami waves in Tolokiwa caused severe damage to a fishing village on the island. In Umboi, over 100 houses were destroyed and a fire was started. In Saidor, tsunami waves severely damaged 61 houses.

Warnings
The provinces of East Sepik, Madang, Manus, Morobe, New Britain, New Ireland and Oro were immediately placed under a tsunami warning after the earthquake struck. The PGA said tsunami waves of up to 10 m could be expected within 50 km of the epicenter. Eastern regions of the Philippines could also experience a rise in sea levels according to PHIVOLCS, while the BMKG warned residents of western New Guinea to stay away from the coast.

Impact
In Madang Province, there were 9,664 deaths, including 6,430 in Karkar, 2,231 in Long Island, 410 in Rai Coast District, 322 in Madang, 294 in Rai Coast, 180 in Umboi, 44 in Tolokiwa and 47 elsewhere. There were also 40,241 injuries, 102 missing, and 275,277 buildings in the province collapsed, with 465,786 others damaged. Research found that 7,397 of the victims were killed by collapsed structures or fires, 627 deaths were caused by the tsunami, and 162 were killed by landslides. Damage and casualties were exacerbated significantly by previous earthquakes, most notably a 7.0 event which caused damage to thousands of buildings in Madang, Saidor and Long Island, and a deep 7.7 event in September 2022 which also caused severe damage in Madang. Many people still resided in these damaged houses at the time of the earthquake, especially in rural areas.

Additionally, there were applications to cities and towns to review 5,779 deaths, including 2,394 in Karkar, 1,146 in Long Island, 1,126 in Umboi, 693 in Madang, 357 in Tolokiwa, 42 in Sumkar and 21 in Almami, and register them as disaster-related. Three meetings have been held as of June 2024; the first meeting in May resulted in 603 new cases being registered as related deaths. On 18 June, city officials certified 442 new deaths. On 25 June, a joint panel discussion by the Madang provincial government and city officials recommended that 362 additional deaths be registered as disaster-related. Another 101 applications were subjected to further review. This would bring the projected total death toll to over 11,000.

The Papuan government estimated the total coast of damage in Madang, Morobe and Highlands at $73.2 billion; most of the cost was attributed to damaged homes, roads, ports and other infrastructure. The total damage in Madang Province was estimated at $54.2 billion, followed by Highlands Province at $12.2 billion and Morobe Province at $6.8 billion. Cities accounted for most of the damage cost, sustaining relatively moderate but widespread damage. At least 5.88 million households lost power following the earthquake, with widespread blackouts leaving most of Lae, Saidor, Finschhafen, Madang and Goroka without electricity for up to five hours.

In Long Island, 4,984 people were injured and all buildings were damaged; 28,861 houses collapsed and 34,088 others were damaged, with a majority of the destruction coming from the tsunami. The tsunami capsized many fishing vessels and carried some onto land. Destroyed villages and overturned cars were reported by locals on the island. The town of Bara lost 5,481 houses and 611 people were killed there. In Karim, 9,410 houses collapsed and 808 people died. There were 237 deaths and 4,505 collapsed houses in Bok, while the town of Kaut recorded 308 fatalities and 4,874 destroyed houses. In Malala, 3,296 houses were razed and 202 people died, while 65 deaths and 1,295 collapsed buildings were recorded in Kiau.

In Karkar, 25,828 people were injured, 188,994 houses were severely damaged or destroyed, including 1,000 from the tsunami, and 176,746 others were damaged. Damaged power lines caused a fire which completely destroyed the entire town of Kaviak, killing 505 people, many of whom were trapped beneath collapsed houses and were not able to escape. However, it is suspected that hundreds more died and were completely disintegrated by the fire. The earthquake and tsunami injured 416 people, destroyed 1,536 houses, partially collapsed 4,290 others and damaged 7,020 more in Tolokiwa, about 65% of the island's houses.

In Rai Coast District, 410 people died, 2,575 others were injured, 3,305 houses collapsed, 7,767 were partially destroyed and 11,062 were damaged. The worst affected area was the city of Saidor, where 229 people died, 1,602 were injured and 7,670 buildings collapsed or were severely damaged, including 61 from the tsunami; most of the damage and casualties were concentrated in Warai, where 119 were killed and 5,000 houses were heavily damaged. In the city center, 110 people were killed, 16 buildings collapsed, 40 were heavily damaged and 726 were slightly damaged, including the city stadium, and several high-rise apartment blocks. The Namugini Mall was also severely damaged, with portions of the ceiling collapsing and injuring 16 shoppers, one of them fatally.

At Saidor Nuclear Power Plant, a massive explosion occurred near the power transformer of the No.2 reactor, while the transformer at the No.1 reactor was rendered inoperable due to an oil spill. Over 250,000 people within a 3 km radius around the plant were temporarily evacuated due to fears of a radiation leak, but were allowed to return on 21 January. An additional 181 people were killed and 973 were injured in the neighboring municipality of Warai, where 3,402 houses were heavily damaged.

At least 180 people were killed and 905 others were injured in Umboi. Out of the 93,750 households on the island, 14,718 partially or completely collapsed and 59,062 others were damaged. The island's airport sustained severe damage and had to be closed until 23 January to fix damage to the runway and air traffic control tower.

At least 322 people died, 4,307 others were injured, 1,986 buildings collapsed, 15,888 others were severely damaged and 81,065 were partially damaged in Madang. Access roads leading to the Madang Airport were blocked by collapsed buildings and fallen debris, while about 2,500 passengers were left stranded inside the facility, which was expected to be closed until 21 January. Access to the city's port was limited by a damaged road. Kalibobo Tower, a twelve-story apartment building housing 872 residents, partially collapsed in the earthquake; half of the building was completely razed. Over 190 people were trapped under the rubble, and 68 people lost their lives, with 122 others injured. It was later found that outdated building codes, liquefaction, and the vertical movement of the earthquake itself, caused the building to collapse.

Eighteen people were killed, 443 others were injured, 413 houses collapsed, 2,407 were partially destroyed and and 12,398 were damaged in Sumkar District, while in Astrolabe Bay, 11 people were killed, 209 others were injured, 1,244 houses collapsed and 7,635 were damaged. In Bogia, 10 people were killed, 218 others were injured, 1,550 buildings collapsed or were badly damaged and 34,533 others were partially damaged. Two people were killed, 83 others were injured, 250 houses collapsed, 3,866 were partially destroyed and 13,285 were partially damaged in Nayudo. In Transgogol, nine people were injured, 51 houses collapsed and 5,579 others were damaged. In Usino, one person died, 106 others were injured, 326 houses collapsed and 5,778 others were damaged. Four people were killed, 67 others were injured, 566 buildings were destroyed, 2,514 partially collapsed and 6,237 others were damaged in Almami, while 38 people were injured, 260 houses collapsed and 8,282 others were damaged in Yawar. In Naho Rawa, one person was killed, 53 others were injured and 11,036 houses were damaged, 311 of which partially or completely collapsed.

At least 94 people in Morobe Province were killed, 34 in Sialum, 22 in Wasu, 20 in Finschhafen, 17 in Lae and one in Bulolo. An additional 2,726 others were injured, 4,273 houses collapsed and 69,360 others were damaged in the province; 2,989 houses were destroyed and 22,129 others were damaged in Sialum, 678 houses were destroyed and 15,560 others were damaged in Wasu, 260 buildings collapsed and 11,149 others were damaged in Finschhafen, 188 buildings collapsed and 6,990 others were damaged in Lae and 158 others were destroyed and 9,874 others were damaged elsewhere. Many of these collapsed buildings were old and/or uninhabited at the time of the earthquake.

In Highlands Province, 49 people were killed; 32 in Goroka, 10 in Kainantu, six in Mount Hagen and one in Tari. Another 951 others were injured, 2,903 houses collapsed and 17,618 others were slightly damaged; 2,130 houses were destroyed and 12,171 others were damaged in Goroka, 30 houses collapsed and 1,066 others were damaged in Kainantu, 18 buildings collapsed and 574 others were damaged in Mount Hagen, and two buildings were destroyed and 14 others were damaged in Tari. Liquefaction occurred in Mount Hagen; sewer pipes also ruptured and many homes were left without water. Cracked roads and broken water mains were also reported in Goroka and Kainantu.

In New Britain, five people were killed, 81 others were injured, 17 buildings collapsed and 1,023 others were damaged in Gloucester, while another person died, 45 others were injured, five houses collapsed and 93 others were damaged in Kandrian. Four people died and 116 others were also injured in Port Moresby, where eight buildings collapsed and 182 houses were damaged. Two people were killed, 49 others were injured, 12 buildings collapsed and 203 others were damaged in Angoram. Three people suffered minor injuries in Wewak.

A review conducted after the earthquake found that Madang Province's disaster preparedness plan had been insufficient to handle the event. It found that the plan had not been significantly updated since 2011 and made only provisions for a magnitude 7.5 earthquake that would be localized in scope and classified as a low-level disaster with only 63 deaths, 600 destroyed buildings and 55,621 evacuees.

Response
President James Marape announced the establishment of a special emergency center to gather and disseminate information on the earthquake and tsunami. The Papua Defence Force participated in rescue efforts. He later announced the deployment of 40,000 PDF personnel to the affected region, with 170,000 others on standby. Over 400 PDF aircraft were also dispatched to survey the damage. An additional 40,000 firefighters and 20,000 police officers were also deployed to assist in rescue operations. About 60,000 rescuers were sent to Karkar and Long Island alone. By 21 January, over 3,000 people had been rescued, while at least 40,000 of the 200,000 evacuees from Karkar had received humanitarian aid.

The Papuan government announced that it would allocate $560 million from reserve funds to use in disaster relief efforts and increased the number of PDF personnel involved in the response to 126,300. The Papuan government also announced that families whose houses were completely destroyed or severely damaged would receive aid amounting to $40,000. Marape later said that the government would allocate a total of $13.8 billion in reconstruction efforts and increase its reserve funds to $138 billion in the upcoming annual budget to ensure support for recovery efforts.

Madang, Morobe, Highlands and New Britain Provinces requested financial support under the Disaster Relief Act, under which the national government is expected to cover 50 to 90 percent of expenses for disaster response and rehabilitation. The Papuan health ministry also instructed hospitals to offer health insurance coverage to patients affected by the quake, including those without insurance certificates and opened a telephone interpreting service in 23 languages to help medical workers handle foreign patients in the affected areas. Authorities in Madang Province also opened an email help line to assist affected residents and tourists.

On 21 January, the Papuan Coast Guard began searching its coast with an aircraft and patrol boat for people missing; presumably swept away by the tsunami. At least 126 people were killed by the tsunami. Forty-two people were rescued after the expiration of the 72-hour survival window in Karkar on 21 January. Large holes in roads and landslides made rescue efforts challenging four days after the earthquake. Heavy rain conditions also affected rescue efforts, with rainfall reaching 20 mm in several areas and raising concerns of additional building collapses and landslides. Rainfall significantly affected rescuers' ability to deliver supplies to isolated villages and recover survivors. Power was also cut due to flooding, disabling cell phones.

By 20 January, about 636,000 people were living in shelters following the earthquake, with about 554,000 sheltering in 6,724 evacuation centers in Madang Province alone. Following reports of deaths at evacuation centers, several vulnerable evacuees were evacuated to other provinces and cities, with at least 600 people being transferred to medical facilities in Daru. The government said it had secured about 130,000 public housing units for evacuees to resettle across the country. The construction of temporary housing began on 29 January with 2,300 home units in Karkar and Long Island. Over 1,200 units in Umboi and Saidor were also scheduled for construction on 1 February. A month after the earthquake, around 280,000 people remained displaced due to the disaster and about 114,680 people continued to live in damaged homes.

All schools in Madang, Morobe, Highlands, New Britain, Moresby and East Sepik Provinces were closed to allow students to recover, with schools in Madang not reopening until 5 February.

Electricity
All train services in Madang, Morobe and Highlands Provinces were halted, and all flights to these provinces were cancelled or delayed. Nuclear plants in Mount Hagen, Goroka, Madang, Saidor and Lae temporarily shut down. At Saidor Nuclear Power Plant, a massive explosion occurred near the power transformer of the No.2 reactor, while the transformer at the No.1 reactor was rendered inoperable due to an oil spill. Over 250,000 people within a 3 km radius around the plant were temporarily evacuated due to fears of a radiation leak, but were allowed to return on 21 January.

By 15 February, electricity had been restored to 80% of households in Karkar and Long Island, and 99% in Madang, Umboi, Rai Coast, Astrolabe Bay and Sumkar. James Marape said power was expected to be fully restored in the province by 18 February.

Humanitarian aid
Due to blocked roads, humanitarian aid was sent to Long Island, Karkar, Umboi and Saidor using ships, while other isolated areas were accessed through helicopters. In light of the difficulties in providing aid, Madang Province asked individuals to refrain from sending aid, instead limiting the call to corporations only. By 21 January, authorities had delivered about 4.8 million meals, 10,000 packages of powdered milk, and 2.8 million bottles of drinking water to the affected areas.

Fundraising campaigns across the country collected a total amount of $1.3 billion for relief aid. Private organizations raised at least $162 million in crowdfunding drives for relief aid, while the Madang provincial government began accepting cash donations at its offices, including those in Port Moresby, Suva, Nouméa and Kokopo, while announcing plans to open a bank account for further donations. By 10 February, the provincial government said that it had received a total of at least $1.48 billion in donations, which was augmented by donations amounting to $162 million for the local Papuan Red Cross Society. Apparel companies donated at least 3.4 million items for victims of the earthquake. About 2,200 hotels and inns volunteered to take in 60,000 people displaced by the earthquake. Papua Mail announced that it would carry humanitarian aid to the affected areas for free.

Aftermath
The aftermath of the earthquake included a major humanitarian impact in the worst affected regions, as well as a national economic impact, with the total cost of the disaster estimated to cost about 2% of Papua's nominal GDP. Tourism in the affected areas suffered negatively, with 200,000 people cancelling their bookings in Morobe Province alone, leading to losses of about $19.4 million.

As of 22 January, approximately 480,000 buildings remained without electricity in Madang Province, and two whale sharks at the Sumkar Aquarium died nine days after the earthquake. Park officials said damaged equipment may have deteriorated living conditions inside the tank and contributed to their deaths.

At least 1,368 criminal incidents relating to the earthquake were reported following the disaster, including burglaries of damaged or evacuated homes and thefts at evacuation centers. The police pledged to install about 20,000 security cameras in the affected areas in response to these incidents.

The perceived slow response drew widespread criticism from the public. Anger was directed at Kishida for his delayed deployment of the JSDF. He was also criticized for only visiting an evacuation center briefly two weeks after the earthquake. In Karkar, there were over 29,000 registrations for temporary housing units with baths and water heating, of which 11,000 were constructed by mid-February. Only 3,374 of the 42,177 temporary housing units in Long Island were completed by then. Local officials said about 28,000 temporary housing units would be ready by the end of March. Despite reassurance by the government, local residents' confidence remains low due to living conditions in evacuation centers and the delayed response.