User:Robertcurrey/astrology-sandbox

=My Ideal Lede Astrology=

Astrology is the study of the relationship between celestial phenomena and life, events and physical processes on Earth    The field is a combination of astronomy, meteorology, philosophy, numerology, chronology,geometry, psychology, symbolism, mysticism and divination. Though many within the scientific community consider it a pseudoscience, most astrologers consider the practice of astrology is more of an art and a craft than a science. Such astrologers work with a model of what they consider a coherent and meaningful pattern within the Cosmos. By translating this symbolic language, practitioners analyze the potential within any birth or launch moment and forecast on the basis of the solar, lunar and planetary cycles.

=Is Astrology a Pseudoscience?= Many sceptics believe that astrology is still a pseudoscience. I have a problem with this – partly because as an astrologer I find it unnecessarily pejorative but mainly because it is unjustified today. My contention is that astrology has a scientific basis, but that the practice of most but not all astrologers is an art or a craft. I make no claim that astrology is a science, but there are no grounds to claim it is a pseudoscience or that it has no scientific basis. I accept that some people believe some of it to be pseudoscience, but this is not supported by evidence. If anyone wants to claim that their belief is based on fact, then the burden of proof lies with the claimant in this instance.

Essentially pseudoscience is a practice that claims or pretends to be science when it is not. By all accounts these are the main criteria for pseudoscience: A field does not have to be permanently labeled this way. Osteopathy is no longer considered a pseudoscience. Today two examples of pseudoscience spring to mind, creationism in the form of Intelligent Design and what was CSICOP which claimed to be scientific but refused to publish opposing views in the Skeptical Inquirer. Both fail to comply with over half the criteria.
 * 1) Lack of scientific evidence supporting the theory.
 * 2) Claims that cannot be falsified and tests that cannot be replicated
 * 3) Lack of openness to evaluation, refutation or peer review
 * 4) Lack of progress in the form of innovation, invention and improvement
 * 5) Failure to address fundamental problems with the theory
 * 6) Alternative superior explanations that conflict with the theory
 * 7) Deceptively misrepresented as science.

First natural astrology has a strong scientific history from the tides: originally from Ptolemy, Tetrabiblos (ca.150), Kepler, Astronomia Nova (1609) and Newton, Principia (1726) et al, the weather: Ding (1982), Cerveny (1997-2010), Varshneya (2010) and earthquakes: Tamrazayan (1968) and Zhao, Han and Li (2000). Lest anyone doubts that these scientific studies fall within the realm of astrology, throughout most of the first millennium BCE, Babylonian astrologers recorded Diaries (Menologies) which systematically contained celestial phenomena along with coinciding mundane information such as weather, water levels in the Euphrates river, prices of commodities, political or unusual events such as earthquakes. Their empirical work led to the world’s first database.

Can claims be falsified, replicate, open to peer review & refutation?
Few would dispute that natural astrology has a scientific basis, but many would understandably question this of natal astrology. Even in this hard-to-test area dealing with the variables of human nature, there are scientific tests that support natal astrology. Astrologers, scientists and sceptics have conducted many tests under scientific method which have been peer reviewed and published in Journals (Correlation, ISAR and NCGR for example). The data is open to evaluation and the Journals will print refutation and studies by well-known sceptics. From the mid 1950s Michel Gauquelin produced evidence showing correlations between planets and birth (natal astrology) on huge samples in several countries – serious data flaws were found by Suitbert Ertel (1988) and later reassessed by Ertel who confirmed more significant correlations (Irving and Ertel 1996). Gauquelin’s statistically significant Mars effect was replicated by the data (N=1664) collected by three independent sceptical groups in France, Belgium and the USA: (Ertel and Irving 1996 & 1997) & (Rawlins 1981). In addition there have been several other replications in separate studies including Timm & Köberl (1986) & Müller & Menzer (1993). There has to date been no plausible explanation for these highly statistically significant results other than astrology. In addition, experiments such as Vernon Clark (1961) favouring astrology in blind tests were replicated in Marbell (1986) and in a re-analysis of the Carlson Double Blind Astrology Test (Ertel 2009). The evidence shows that the astrologer’s confidence rating of their selections of 100 blind charts were statistically significant (p=.037). These tests are not prone to standard criticism of astrological practice: Forer (and Barnum) effects, confirmation bias, cold reading techniques, cherry picking, data artifacts or flattery. Carlson is the largest test of this type, it involved the cooperation of both astrologers, scientists and sceptics and was published in Nature. Shawn Carlson's mentor, Professor Richard Muller describes it as the “definitive test of astrology”.

Has there been progress in astrology?
Progress from around 5th century up until 1950 was negligible with a few significant astrologers in the face of religious intolerance. Besides the research published in Journals, the findings of Gauquelin, the work of Carl Jung in the field of archetypes, Jung and Pauli in the development synchronicity model, the incorporation of the outer planets, the innovation of Astro*Carto*Graphy (astrology of location), research into harmonics (Addey 1994), correlation between physical trait and planetary positions (Hill 1996), evidence supporting financial astrology (Zheng 2001) and (Pelc 2010), the discovery of Babylonian astrology through scientific historian and mathematician Neugebauer and others revealing the ancient empirical studies of astrology have greatly enhanced the application and understanding of the field of astrology.

Have astrologers failed to address fundamental problems with the theory?
The astrological model has successfully handled many crises. Precession was first measured by Greek astrologer, Hipparchus and incorporated into astrology by Ptolemy. The heliocentric system was advocated by astrologers, Galileo and Kepler but has no bearing on the horoscope which has to be a geocentric map (unless someone is born on the Sun!). The philosophical doctrine of free-will has been addressed in recent centuries. The discovery of the outer planets required reformulation of the model, but has resulted in a superior system. The present problem of natal astrology is the lack of a known mechanism. There are many theories: solar tides, synchronicity, quantum mechanics and it is likely that astrology has several mechanisms. Currently evidence is coming from the Sunspot/Planet/Earth interrelationship with research studies including Brown, Webb & Bennett (1958), Seymour (1997), Wainwright (2004), Hung (2007) and Wilson (2008) and the circadian rhythm McGillion (2002) and McMahon (2010). Evidence without a lack of a known mechanism suggests that natal astrology is likely to be a proto-science but not a pseudoscience.

Are there alternative superior explanations that conflict with the theory?
Nowadays the main challenge to astrology comes from genetics. Currently there is no conflict especially as genetically identical clones born at different times show surprising differences. See http://www.accessexcellence.org/WN/SU/copycat.php This field could challenge astrology in the future.

Do astrologers claim to be scientific when they are not?
This may have been true of astrologers one hundred years ago, but the whole astrological model has been updated in the last century. First, while testable predictions are at the heart of science. most consultative astrologers who deal with personal clients do not claim to make predictions, though they will forecast trends allowing for individual circumstances and free-will. Second, the popular current working model among astrologers is that the planets (and stars) do not cause effects within the presently known laws of physics and that the relationship may be accausal. As a result, most practicing astrologers do not claim or present themselves as scientists.

How astrology overlaps with other fields, outside personality
First as I outlined there was a long Babylonian astrological tradition of scholars compiling data connected with earth processes and celestial events and formulating omens from this data. As you probably know astrology and astronomy were once the same field and the original separation occurred around the end of the first millennium in the Islamic world. While astronomy – the arrangement and naming of stars was acceptable for working out the times of prayer, religious festivals, navigation and the direction of Mecca, astrology the logic or reading of the stars was considered a heresy that might read the mind of god or lead to polytheism or atheism in a fundamentalist monotheistic society. Astrology later divided into natural astrology which was the prediction of natural phenomenon like tides, earthquakes and the weather and judicial astrology which was oriented to human affairs.

The Roman sceptic, Cicero criticised astrology including the belief in a connection between the tides and the moon. The most popular ancient book on astrology Tetrabiblos by polymath, Ptolemy, contains the first records of a tidal connection with the Moon – a theory he derived from ancient observation. Later, Kepler who practiced astrology and astronomy identified the connection between the 18.6-year nodal cycle, the precession of the lunar nodes and the tides even though he did not know the mechanism. Kepler also published astrological almanacs which included his weather forecasts based on lunar and planetary movements. It was Newton who accepted natural astrology (but there is no evidence he practiced judicial astrology) who applied his theory of universal gravitation to the role of the Sun and the Moon and the tides. Newton was initially criticised by sceptics for supporting astrology. This tradition of natural astrology has continued among astrologers today. For example, Richard Nolle is a professional astrologer who invented the term Super Moons. This term now used by astronomers which describes the period when the Moon is at perigee (as it is now) and the possible connection with earthquakes.

Why are sunspots connected with astrology?
Dr Percy Seymour, former principal lecturer in astronomy and astrophysics at Plymouth University and previously a researcher at the Royal Observatory in Greenwich, has developed a model to describe the mechanism behind astrology. It is outlined in his title “Astrology: The evidence of Science”. The best link that I can find is an interview from 1989 which will not be up to date with more recent research. In outline, it is based on the tidal tugs of all the planets in addition to the Sun and Moon which disrupt the Earth’s magnetosphere (magnetic field) which affects the human neural network. It works through the gravitational effects of the planets which are magnified by what Seymour calls ‘magneto tidal resonance’ to affect the sunspot cycle. Jane Blizard at NASA produced evidence for heliocentric planetary conjunctions, oppositions and squares (90° angle) giving rise to violent solar disturbances. Dr Robin Baker of Manchester Uni has evidence suggesting humans are sensitive to changes in the Earth’s magnetic field. In separate studies, there are peaks within the Sun spot cycle coinciding with the helio Jupiter/Saturn conjunction 11.86 years, Jupiter’s perihelion 9.93 years and what astrologer’s call a Sun/Venus conjunction 11.08 years. Solar output (including heat, light, radio, x-rays, neutrinos, solar wind and possibly more) is extremely important as regards all life on Earth (not just climate). Some of these outputs directly affect human behaviour through interactions with the Earth’s electromagnetic field. For example, there are studies showing significant correlations between events such as wars on Earth and the 11 and 22 year sunspot cycle.