User:Rolf h nelson/sandbox

Human Rights Watch concluded the Syrian regime was "almost certainly responsible" for the attacks, citing the following evidence:{cite}

The attacks targeted rebel-held areas, rather than government-held areas. Government-controlled potential launching sites were within range of the targets.

Two types of chemical rockets were used: a 140mm rocket which is officially listed as a weapon in Syrian army weapon stocks, and a 330mm rocket of probable Syrian industrial origin that fits known Syrian rocket launchers. The rebels are not believed to possess either of these two weapon systems.

The attacks were sophisticated, requiring large amounts of nerve agent, specialized procedures to load the warheads with the nerve agent, and specialized launchers to launch the rockets. The attacks were also "large-scale", involving at least 12 rockets targeting two different neighborhoods situated 16 km apart, and surrounded by major Syrian government military positions. The scale of the attack is consistent with Syrian capabilities, but seems beyond rebel capabilities.

The attacks matched the pattern of other recent alleged chemical attacks against rebels using the same 330mm rocket delivery system.

In addition:

Triangulating rocket trajectories pinpoints the origin of the attack as government-held territory. Consideration of missile ranges provides additional evidence the rockets originated from the triangulated government-held region.{cite}

Syria has been reluctant to provide access to Ghouta. Initially Syria refused access to the U.N. for several days after the attacks, claiming that no chemical attack of any sort had occurred, and continued to bombard Ghouta, albeit with conventional rather than chemical warheads. The U.N. was later allowed to inspect the area, under the condition that it would not be allowed to assign blame for the attacks. Syria, like Russia, initially claimed that no chemical attack occurred, but now claims that rebels were behind the chemical attack.

According to the U.S., intercepts of Syrian government communications confirm Syrian goverment forces initiated the chemical attack.{cite}

Capability

Syria possesses over 1000 tons of chemical weapon agents.{cite} There is no evidence rebel forces have access to chemical weapon agents, especially in the large quantity deployed in the Ghouta attacks.{cite}

The Western Ghouta chemical attack was delivered by the 140mm M14 rocket. At least one of the M14 rockets was manufactured in Soviet Novosibirsk. The Ghouda attacks are the first documented use of the M14 rocket in Syria. One of the three warheads produced for the M14 is a chemical warhead, designed to hold 2.2 kg of sarin. Syria is known to possess M14 rockets: the Soviet Union transferred 200 140mm rocket launchers to Syria in the 1960s. In contrast, there is no evidence that rebel forces have access to M14 rocket launchers or rockets.{cite}

The Eastern Ghouta chemical attack was delivered by a novel and sophisticated type of rocket. This new rocket is not documented in any known reference manual, and its only known appearance before the Ghota attacks had been in several previous attacks on rebel targets, including a previous alleged chemical attack. The rocket warhead is believed to come in both high-explosive and chemical-weapon variants. The rocket measures about 330 mm, and the chemical warhead appears capable of delivering a 50-liter chemical weapon payload. The rocket design suggests a Syrian industrial origin. Iran is the only country known to manufacture the 333mm rocket launchers required to launch 330mm rockets. Syria is known to possess 333mm rocket launchers. There is no evidence rebels have access to 330mm rocket launchers.{cite}

Prior to each attack, the 330mm chemical warhead would need to be filled with nerve agent, a dangerous process that is normally conducted by specialized teams wearing protective gear to prevent exposure to the chemical agents. There is no evidence rebel forces possess the expertise needed to fill the warheads without accidental exposure to the deadly nerve agent.{cite}