User:RonCram/AGWControversySandbox

What is the controversy about?
The controversy is about five claims, positions or proposals:
 * The claim that an increase in atmospheric CO2 from man's burning of fossil fuels is mainly responsible for increasing global surface temperatures. (Asks the questions: Is warming global? Is it possible it is mainly regional?  If so, what does that mean?  What does the satellite data say regional warming?  What does physics say about atmospheric CO2?  What other climate forces could be at work?  How much is attributable to man?)
 * The position of the keepers of the temperature record that they do not need to archive and make available their data and methods (making it impossible for other scientists to verify the extent of the reported warming or how the Urban Heat Island (UHI) is handled).  When Phil Jones of the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) was asked for archived data and methods, he replied: "We have 25 or so years invested in the work. Why should I make the data available to you, when your aim is to try and find something wrong with it?"    (Asks the questions: Is the warming real or an artifact of instrument error or UHI bias?  Is the warming real or an artifact of errors in the handling and adjustments of the dataset?  Why haven't the data and methods been released?).
 * The position of the IPCC that (contrary to McIntyre, the Wegman Report and the NAS) current temps are the warmest in 1300 years. (Asks the questions: Why did the IPCC reaffirm this position without a thorough examination of the Hockey stick controversy? Is there evidence the IPCC is driven by politics instead of science?)
 * The claim that warming will continue at least until 2100 resulting in catastrophic consequences, including extinctions and increasing weather catastrophes. (Asks the questions: Is it reasonable to conclude the current warming climate regime will continue without interruption for nearly 100 years? Have any observations been made or peer-reviewed articles published that indicate a coming change in the climate regime?  What does the science say about global warming causing increasing number of hurricanes?)
 * The steps society should take to prevent, mitigate or adapt to global warming. (Asks the questions: Is the Kyoto Protocol economically viable? Is the Kyoto Protocol politically viable?  What other steps have been proposed for either mitigation or adaptation?)

Outline

 * 1. Is the planet warming globally?
 * Is it regional? Discuss satellite info
 * IPCC papers
 * Skeptic papers
 * Is a global temperature even possible?
 * IPCC papers
 * Skeptic papers
 * Is the temperature record reliable or a result of instrument error (Urban Heat Island or other) or the result of unwarranted tampering?
 * IPCC papers
 * Skeptic papers
 * Why are the differences so striking between the GHCN data sets and the data sets constructed by Phil Jones and the CRU and used by IPCC?
 * IPCC papers
 * Skeptic papers
 * Are adjustments to the temperature record warranted?   See Comment 15  and notice that 1930s were warmer than the 1990s in this graph from 1999.
 * IPCC papers
 * Skeptic papers
 * Why are the data and methods of climate researchers not archived and availabe for audit?
 * IPCC papers
 * Skeptic papers
 * Do satellites or other methods contradict the surface temperature record?
 * IPCC papers
 * Skeptic papers


 * 2. How does the current warming compare to historical record?
 * Hockey Stick controversy
 * IPCC papers
 * Skeptic papers
 * Criticism of data, methods, and proxies.
 * IPCC papers
 * Skeptic papers
 * What significance does the historical record hold for the debate.
 * IPCC papers
 * Skeptic papers


 * 3. Is the IPCC fairly reflecting the science?
 * Why did the IPCC reaffirm this position without a thorough examination of the Hockey stick controversy?
 * IPCC papers
 * Skeptic papers
 * Is the IPCC fairly considering internal climate variation and climate regime shifts from ocean-atmosphere interactions?
 * IPCC papers
 * Skeptic papers
 * Is the IPCC fairly considering external climate forcings?
 * IPCC papers
 * Skeptic papers
 * Is the IPCC fairly considering all of the negative feedbacks such as DMS?
 * IPCC papers
 * Skeptic papers
 * Is there evidence the IPCC is driven by politics instead of science?
 * IPCC papers
 * Skeptic papers


 * 4. What are the causes of observed warming?
 * Natural greenhouse gas contributions: The effect of water vapour and other natural greenhouse gases
 * IPCC papers
 * Skeptic papers
 * Human contributions: CO2 plus land use changes - more bovine farming etc.
 * IPCC papers
 * Skeptic papers
 * Solar variation
 * IPCC papers
 * Skeptic papers
 * Solar variation with Cosmic Ray cloud formation
 * IPCC papers
 * Skeptic papers
 * Snow albedo affected by carbon soot


 * Population increase
 * IPCC papers
 * Skeptic papers
 * Natural climate variation - possibly reversion to average long term temperatures following the LIA
 * IPCC papers
 * Skeptic papers


 * 5. What are projections for the future?
 * Model limitations (not falsifiable, state of science is limited in some areas)   Add a quote from chapter four of Pilkey's book "Useless Arithmetic."
 * IPCC papers
 * Skeptic papers
 * Analysis of computer code - criticisms of Dan Hughes
 * IPCC papers
 * Skeptic papers
 * Model accuracy in the past
 * IPCC papers
 * Skeptic papers
 * Alternate projections
 * IPCC papers
 * Skeptic papers
 * Is it reasonable assume that increased atmospheric CO2 will always have a warming effect? Some scientists say the law of diminishing returns applies to CO2. As far as carbon dioxide itself is concerned, "at some point the heat-trapping capacity of [the gas] and its effect get saturated," said Frappier, "and you don't have increased heating." In other words, the gas can't trap heat indefinitely since its capacity to do so eventually plateaus.
 * IPCC papers
 * Skeptic papers
 * Have any observations or peer-reviewed articles proposed any coming change to the climate regime?
 * IPCC papers
 * Skeptic papers
 * Is it reasonable to presume no change in climate regime for nearly 100 years?
 * IPCC papers
 * Skeptic papers


 * 6. What are the projected effects both positive and negative?
 * Will increased CO2 cause a greening of the earth?
 * Will warming be mostly good for humanity?


 * '''7. What evidence were the previous global climate change alarms based upon?
 * Was this evidence correct or subsequently found to be wrong?
 * IPCC papers
 * Skeptic papers
 * What can we learn from these previous climate alarm predictions and the actual subsequent climate changes?
 * IPCC papers
 * Skeptic papers
 * What would the cost have been to the global economy if we had acted to prevent these prior global cooling & global warming alarms?
 * IPCC papers
 * Skeptic papers
 * Would any of the suggested changes have been beneficial based on our current understanding?
 * IPCC papers
 * Skeptic papers


 * 8. What should be done about global warming?
 * Is carbon trading big business?
 * Is the Kyoto Protocol economically viable?
 * Is Kyoto politically viable?
 * Does Kyoto have the ability to make any appreciable difference?
 * What other steps for mitigation or adaptation have been proposed?

=Global Warming controversy= A controversy exists regarding the surface temperature record and claims by the majority of climate scientists that the warming
 * is global and can be seen in the temperature record and rising sea level
 * is caused by increased atmospheric CO2 from burning fossil fuels
 * will severely damage the environment, including species extinctions and increasing adverse weather events
 * should be mitigated through a reduction in CO2 emissions as through Kyoto Protocol

See other wikipedia articles for more information on Global warming, Attribution of recent climate change and List of scientists opposing global warming consensus

Is the planet warming globally?
If the planet is warming because of increased atmospheric CO2, would the warming be uniform across the planet or would it affect certain regions more? NASA tracks satellite data and web publishes images showing where the planet is warming and where it is cooling. 

UHI links

 * See comment #11
 * Two Long-Term Instrumental Climatic Data Bases of the People's Republic of China by D.P. Kaiser, Tao Shiyan, Fu Congbin, Zeng Zhaomei, Zhang Qingyan - November, 1991
 * Urban Heat Islands in China (see page 197) by Wei-Chyung Wang, Zhaomei Zeng and Thomas Karl, Geophysical Research Letters December 1990
 * Satellite-measured growth of the urban heat island of Houston, Texas by David R. Streutker,Department of Physics and Astronomy, Rice University
 * Urban Heat Islands Developing in Coastal Tropical Cities by Jorge E. Gonzalez, et al
 * Urban heat island features of southeast Australian towns by Simon Torok, Christopher J.G. Morris, Carol Skinner and Neil Plummer - June 2000.
 * The Urban Heat Island in winter at Barrow, Alaska by Kenneth Hinkel, et al
 * Influence of Patterns of Climate Variability on the Difference between Satellite and Surface Temperature Trends by Gabriele C. Hegerl
 * More on urban temperatures by Roger Pielke, Sr - January 31, 2006
 * Why there is a warm bias in the existing analyses of the global average surface temperature by Roger Pielke, Sr - January 23, 2006
 * Where are the newly recognized uncertainties in the 2005 GISS surface temperature record? by Roger Pielke, Sr. - January 19, 2006
 * Should light wind and windy nights have the same temperature trends at individual levels even if the boundary layer averaged heat content change is the same? by Roger A. Pielke Sr. and Toshihisa Matsui - Note this paper refutes the 2004 Parker paper "Climate: Large-scale warming is not urban."


 * Industrial CO2 emissions as a proxy for anthropogenic influence on lower tropospheric temperature trends by A. T. J. de Laat and A. N. Maurellis
 * Evidence for influence of anthropogenic surface processes on lower tropospheric and surface temperature trends by A. T. J. de Laat and A. N. Maurellis
 * Roger A. Pielke Sr. Public Comment on CCSP Report “Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere: Steps for Understanding and Reconciling Differences” December 5, 2005
 * Unresolved Issues with the Assessment of Multi-Decadal Global Land-Surface Temperature Trends by Roger Pielke, Sr., et al
 * Beating the heat in the world's biggest cities by Michon Scott According to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, an urban area can see air temperatures up to 6 degrees Celsius (10 degrees Fahrenheit) hotter than the nearby suburban and rural areas.

Severe weather events

 * Mixing Politics and Science in Testing the Hypothesis That Greenhouse Warming is Causing a Global Increase in Hurricane Intensity by A. T. J. de Laat

Dendro articles

 * Increased temperature sensitivity and divergent growth trends in circumpolar boreal forests by M. Wilmking et al 2005 (Steve McIntyre comments "For example, Martin Wilmking has reported positive and negative responders at latitudinal treeline, a result that he stated would have major impact on the millennial reconstruction project. This finding is not cited nor discussed nor incorporated in IPCC 4AR and thus, even though articulated by an excellent dendroclimatologist, cannot be counted as being part of 'consensus science.'" )

CO2 papers

 * Greenhouse molecules, their spectra and function in the atmosphere by Jack Barrett
 * The Past and Future of Climate by David Archibald See pages 15-16 on "The Warming Effect of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide"
 * 180 years of atmospheric CO2 gas analysis by chemical methods - support by Ernst-Georg Beck.
 * On the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere by G.S. Callendar in 1957
 * Climate Change: Incorrect information on pre-industrial CO2 Statement of Prof. Zbigniew Jaworowski to U.S. Senate - March 2004

Cosmic ray links

 * Cosmic rays a website by NGDC

Science resources

 * Articles by T.R. Oke on Urban Heat Island and other matters
 * 
 * 
 * 
 * Heat storage within the Earth system by Roger Pielke, Sr. Note- Pielke defines global warming "as a positive accumulation of heat (Joules) in the climate system, of which most occurs in the oceans (see Pielke Sr., R.A., 2003: Heat storage within the Earth system. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 84, 331-335). While surface temperature as also been used to define this heating, it has a range of problems with its use in this context, as we have discussed in our papers, and in earlier weblogs, with more to follow."


 * 
 * Pielke bloggging about two papers on UHI
 * Pielke Sr discussing human heat playing a role in UHI
 * Peterson Powerpoint presentation claiming no UHI warming bias in the temperature record


 * The Earth a website by Jan Janssen

Links

 * Jan Janssens comments on SPM4
 * Stern Review: A Dual Critique
 * Data Access and Data Contribution
 * Are Climate Models Reliable?
 * Danish scientist: Global warming is a myth
 * American Association of State Climatologists
 * World Climate Report a blog by Patrick Michaels
 * Climate Change: the human influence analysed by Dr. Harry N.A. Priem
 * A Critical Examination of Climate Change by Dr. Douglas Hoyt
 * Stripped of title
 * Climate Police
 * Warmal Globing
 * The Other Side of the Global Warming Debate
 * EnviroSpin Watch - a blog by Philip Stott
 * Science and Environmental Policy Project - a research efffort by S. Fred Singer - See Board of Science Advisors
 * ClimatePrediction.net predicts up to 11C increase in temps based on doubling of CO2
 * Coolwire 11 assessment of ClimatePrediction.net
 * More Trees, Less Global Warming, Right? -- Not Exactly By Nikhil Swaminathan Scientific American New study by Ken Caldeira published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences shows that tropical forests contribute to cooling but boreal forests contribute to warming. No computer model shows this.
 * Has the IPCC lost all credibility?