User:SandyGeorgia/ArbVotes2011

History
The 2010 guidewriters who predicted successful candidates at a higher rate than the average guidewriter (10.75 of the 19 candidates) were (see Lar's summary of last year's guides at User:SandyGeorgia/ArbVotes2010/Guides): A summary table of the 2011 guidewriters who provided the best predictions for 2010 is at:
 * my 2010 Guide
 * my 2009 Guide
 * my 2008 Guide
 * 1) SandyGeorgia (13)
 * 2) NuclearWarfare and Ealdgyth (12)
 * 3) Wizardman, Lar and MastCell (11)
 * User:SandyGeorgia/ArbVotes2011/Guides

2011 environment
There are eight seats to be filled this year to complete a committee of 15 (reduced from last year's 18), with a community-wide RFC endorsing a low support percentage for election-- in no previous election have arbs been selected with a 50% support percentage. The backdrop for this year's election is one of disappointment in the current committee because of leaked correspondence, making it potentially harder for incumbents to retain their seats, even with a disappointing pool of new candidates. I do not see even seven candidates on the list that I am comfortable with, and shortly before voting was to start, the election coordinators decided that eight new arbs would be elected, to account for a last-minute resignation. Considering the unfortunate new low (50% support) set for election, it appears likely that we will end up with a committee made up of mostly of members elected with record-low support percentages. The dearth of qualified candidates this year is worse than it's ever been, and it's the first time I'm unable to come up with as many candidates to support as there are openings on the committee. Considering the above factors, the only way I see to avoid a committee made up of marginal 50% vote-getters is to make ample use of the oppose button this year, cross our fingers, and hope for the best possible outcome. There are not eight candidates I can support, but I will add my support to the best of the bunch.