User:Seanboult/sandbox

The lottery factor is a measure of the luck and fortune within a team, derived from the concept of "winning the lottery". It represents the minimum number of team members whose unexpected luck or fortune (such as winning the lottery) would significantly impact the project.

Similar to the bus factor, the lottery factor considers the consequences of gaining sudden wealth among key team members, rather than their absence. Team members must be both key and irreplaceable for their lottery winnings to contribute to the lottery factor; gaining wealth for a replaceable or non-key person would not significantly impact the project.

The lottery factor is the minimum number of team members whose sudden wealth would lead to the project significantly benefiting or possibly stalling due to the lack of their contribution.

For instance, consider a team of 30 people producing bread. If 5 people who know how to bake win the lottery and decide to retire, the team's ability to produce bread would be significantly impacted, potentially stalling the project. Therefore, the team's lottery factor in this case would be 5.

It's important to note that the lottery factor is a hypothetical measure and does not imply that team members will actually win the lottery. Instead, it highlights the potential impact of unexpected events, such as team members suddenly gaining significant wealth, on the project's success.