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= Michael J. Pencina, PhD = Michael J. Pencina, PhD, is Vice Dean of Data Science and Information Technology and Professor of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics at the Duke University School of Medicine in Durham, NC. As an internationally recognized expert in risk prediction model development and evaluation, Dr. Pencina designs, conducts and analyzes clinical studies and novel applications of machine learning for medical decision support. His work spans clinical medicine and social sciences, including cardiovascular risk and disease, diabetes, kidney and mental health. He has co-authored over 350 manuscripts in peer-reviewed journals and serves as deputy editor for Statistics at JAMA-Cardiology and associate editor for Statistics in Medicine. His basic and applied research include:


 * Development and assessment of performance of risk prediction models
 * Use of electronic health records (EHR) for predictive medicine
 * Assessment of the usefulness of new biomarkers
 * Optimal treatment guidelines and resource utilization
 * Risk communication strategies:  novel approaches
 * Design of clinical trials with composite outcomes
 * Data monitoring committees (DMC): role, mandate and operation

1. Early Life
Michael Jakub Pencina was born on July 3, 1974, in Piotrkow Trybunalski, Lodzkie, Poland, to Elżbieta (nee insert) Pencina, a retired judge for the District Court in Piotrków, and Ludomir Michal Pencina, president of P&W, one of the region’s largest private construction companies that employs over a 100 people, and vice president of the Piotrków Trybunalski City Council. His parents are actively engaged in the promotion of community civic, social and arts initiatives. His brother and frequent research collaborator, Karol M. Pencina, PhD, is an Instructor at Harvard Medical School and Chief Biostatistician of the Section on Men’s Health, Aging and Metabolism at Brigham and Women’s Hospital. His sister, Maria Pencina, is a project manager at the The Royal Lazienki Museum in Warsaw, Poland.

Dr. Pencina met Carolina Whitney Hanes at a Boston University ecumenical group. They became married and have five children. Whitney Pencina is a professional flutist who plays with a variety of North Carolina symphonies. She has played with the Boston Pops Esplanade Orchestra and toured the United States and Japan.

Dr. Pencina’s great-grandparents are notable relatives. Franciszek and Waleria Świerzyński were associated with the Polish Underground during World War II. They secretly sheltered Wincenty Witos, a leader of the Polish People's Party (PSL) who served three times as the Prime Minister of Poland, and Jan Stanislaw Jankowsk i, a delegate of the Polish Government in Exile and deputy head of the National Council of Ministers.

2. Education
In 1998, Dr. Pencina acquired a Master of Arts degree in applied mathematics at the University of Warsaw with his theses focused on applications to life insurance. His work received the first place award in Poland among master theses in actuarial mathematics organized by Allianz. He completed a Master of Arts in Business Culture in 2000 at the University of Warsaw and began doctoral studies at Boston University (BU). There he worked under the mentorship of Ralph B. D’Agostino, Sr., PhD, Professor of Mathematics/Statistics, Biostatistics and Epidemiology at BU. Dr. D’Agostino has been with the Framingham Heart Study since 1981; he serves as its Co-Principal Investigator of the Core contract and Director of Data Management and Statistical Analysis. In 2003, Dr. Pencina defended his doctoral dissertation on performance of risk prediction models entitled, “Overall C as Measure of Discrimination in Survival Analysis” and received his PhD in Mathematics and Statistics from BU.

3. Career

 * Boston University While at BU Dr. Pencina worked for three years as a graduate teaching assistant, winning an award for the best TA for 2000/2001, and for one year as a research assistant.  He taught graduate courses in statistics, applied statistics and probability from 2002 – 2013 at BU’s Goldman School of Dental Medicine and College of Arts and Sciences.  In 2003, he became a Research Assistant Professor in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics with his full research support coming from the Framingham Heart Study contract.  His research focused on collaborative work with Framingham investigators as well as development of new methodology on assessment of risk prediction models.  He completed a key paper in 2007, introducing two new measures for quantifying improvement in model performance:  the net reclassification index and integrated discrimination improvement .  This paper became the most cited publication in the history of Statistics in Medicine and, as of April 2020, has nearly 5,000 citations .  The proposed methods were included in the American Heart Association’s expert panel recommendations and guidelines on cardiovascular risk assessment in 2019.  In 2008, Dr. Pencina joined BU’s Department of Biostatistics as Associate Professor.  He continued methodological work and pursued interests in cardiovascular epidemiology. His most important publication from this time appeared in Circulation in 2009 and focused on estimation of 30-year risk of cardiovascular disease in younger adulthood.  The American Heart Association recommended this risk score for general use in its 2019 guidelines.


 * Harvard Clinical Research Institute Also in 2007, Dr. Pencina became a Statistical Consultant at the Harvard Clinical Research Institute (HCRI, renamed the Baim Institute for Clinical Research in 2016).  He worked on design and analysis of clinical trials in medical devices and neuroscience and interacted with numerous Harvard investigators, industry sponsors and the Food and Drug Administration (FDA).  He became the Director of Statistical Consulting at HCRI in 2010.


 * Duke University Duke University recruited Dr. Pencina in 2013 and he became Professor in the Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics and Director of Biostatistics at Duke Clinical Research Institute (DCRI).  He oversaw strategy and operations of 110 DCRI statisticians, statistical programmers and line leaders, and ensured statistical analyses was of the highest quality.  He partnered with the Biostatistics and Bioinformatics Department to provide statistical services for Duke researchers.  Duke University School of Medicine named Dr. Pencina the Vice Dean for Data Science and Information Technology in 2018.  He is responsible for promoting quantitative science, artificial intelligence and machine learning strategies and collaboration across the school.  He interacts regularly with investigators from academic and industry institutions, vice presidents and chief information officers of Duke Health and Duke University’s Office of Information Technology, and the FDA.

4. Publications & Editorial Boards
Dr. Pencina has over 350 peer-reviewed publications in data and social sciences. Thomson Reuters/Clarivate Analytics recognized him as a Highly Cited Researcher in social sciences and clinical medicine in 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019. Researchers have cited Dr. Pencina’s work nearly 50,000 times in peer-reviewed articles and professional publications.

He serves as Associate Editor for Statistics in Medicine, Deputy Editor for Statistics for JAMA-Cardiology, and Statistical Consultant for Journal of the American Medical Association. He is a Reviewer for the American Journal of Epidemiology, Archives of Internal Medicine, Biometrics, Biostatistics, Circulation, Journal of the American Dietetic Association and New England Journal of Medicine.

5. Professional Affiliations
Dr. Pencina’s professional affiliations include the American Heart Association, which selected him to provide the Remington Methodology Lecture at its 2016 symposium. He is a Charter Member of the Scientific Council of the Medical Research Agency of the Republic of Poland. He serves as an expert on Independent Data Monitoring Committees for the Clinical Trials Transformation Initiative (CTTI), a public-private partnership to develop and drive adoption of practices that increase the quality and efficiency of clinical trials. Scientific organizations that have invited Dr. Pencina to deliver presentations include:


 * Professional Associations: American College of Cardiology Scientific Sessions, American Diabetes Association Scientific Sessions, American Heart Association Scientific Sessions and Joint Statistical Meetings, American Statistical Association, European Society of Cardiology, McGill University, Polish Lipid Association and U.S. National Academy of Sciences.


 * Academic Institutions: Boston University, Brigham and Women’s Hospital, Cleveland Clinic, Harvard School of Public Health, the Mayo Clinic, Medical University of Gdansk, North Carolina State University, Pennsylvania State University, The Mazankowski Alberta Heart Institute at the University of Alberta, University of Cambridge, University of North Carolina, University of Pennsylvania, Vanderbilt University.

5. Collaborative Research and Scientific Contributions
Dr. Pencina has served as principal investigator and co-investigator on major clinical trials such as ARIC, the Framingham Study, MESA, PCORNet, CTSA and CTSI. His contributions span seven scientific areas: risk prediction, model improvement, guidelines, cardiovascular disease and stroke outcomes, use of existing and novel data sources, policy and education, and open science.

6. Selected Publications
Risk Prediction


 * 1) Pencina MJ, Larson MG, D'Agostino RB. Choice of time scale and its effect on significance of predictors in longitudinal studies. Stat Med. 2007 Mar 15;26(6):1343-59. PMID: 16955538. DOI: 10.1002/sim.2699. [Indexed for MEDLINE.]
 * 2) D'Agostino RB Sr, Vasan RS, Pencina MJ, Wolf PA, Cobain M, Massaro JM, Kannel WB. General cardiovascular risk profile for use in primary care: the Framingham Heart Study. Circulation. 2008 Feb 12;117(6):743-53. Epub 2008 Jan 22. PMID: 18212285. DOI: 10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.107.699579.  [Indexed for MEDLINE.]
 * 3) Pencina MJ, D'Agostino RB Sr, Larson MG, Massaro JM, Vasan RS. Predicting the 30-year risk of cardiovascular disease: the Framingham Heart Study. Circulation. 2009 Jun 23;119(24):3078-84. Epub 2009 Jun 8. PMID: 19506114. NIHMSID: NIHMS128838. PMCID: PMC2748236. DOI: 10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.108.816694. [Indexed for MEDLINE.]
 * 4) Schnabel RB, Sullivan LM, Levy D, Pencina MJ, Massaro JM, D'Agostino RB Sr, Newton-Cheh C, Yamamoto JF, Magnani JW, Tadros TM, Kannel WB, Wang TJ, Ellinor PT, Wolf PA, Vasan RS, Benjamin EJ. Development of a risk score for atrial fibrillation (Framingham Heart Study): a community-based cohort study. Lancet. 2009 Feb 28;373(9665):739-45. PMID: 19249635. NIHMSID: NIHMS108889. PMCID: PMC2764235. DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(09)60443-8. [Indexed for MEDLINE.]
 * 5) Pencina MJ, D'Agostino RB Sr. Evaluating discrimination of risk prediction models: the C statistic. JAMA. 2015 Sep 8;314(10):1063-4. PMID: 26348755. DOI: 10.1001/jama.2015.11082. [Indexed for MEDLINE.]

Model Improvement


 * 1) Pencina MJ, D'Agostino RB.  Overall C as a measure of discrimination in survival analysis: model specific population value and confidence interval estimation. Stat Med. 2004 Jul 15;23(13):2109-23. PMID: 15211606. DOI: 10.1002/sim.1802. [Indexed for MEDLINE.]
 * 2) Pencina MJ, D'Agostino RB Sr, D'Agostino RB Jr, Vasan RS. Evaluating the added predictive ability of a new marker: from area under the ROC curve to reclassification and beyond. Stat Med. 2008 Jan 30;27(2):157-72. Discussion 207-12. PMID: 17569110. DOI: 10.1002/sim.2929. [Indexed for MEDLINE.]
 * 3) Pencina MJ, D'Agostino RB, Pencina KM, Janssens AC, Greenland P. Interpreting incremental value of markers added to risk prediction models. Am J Epidemiol. 2012 Sep 15;176(6):473-81. Epub 2012 Aug 8. PMID: 22875755. PMCID: PMC3530349. DOI: 10.1093/aje/kws207. [Indexed for MEDLINE.]
 * 4) Pencina MJ, Navar AM, Wojdyla D, Sanchez RJ, Khan I, Elassal J, D'Agostino RB Sr, Peterson ED, Sniderman AD. Quantifying importance of major risk factors for coronary heart disease. Circulation. 2019 Mar 26;139(13):1603-11. PMID: 30586759. PMCID: PMC6433489. DOI: 10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.117.031855. [Indexed for MEDLINE.]
 * 5) Hess CN, Roe MT, Gibson CM, Temple RJ, Pencina MJ, Zarin DA, Anstrom KJ, Alexander JH, Sherman RE, Fiedorek FT, Mahaffey KW, Lee KL, Chow SC, Armstrong PW, Califf RM. Independent data monitoring committees: preparing a path for the future. Am Heart J. 2014 Aug;168(2):135-41.e1. Epub 2014 May 15. PMID: 25066551. NIHMSID: NIHMS630264. PMCID: PMC4181557. DOI: 10.1016/j.ahj.2014.05.003. [Indexed for MEDLINE.]
 * 6) Pencina MJ, Peterson ED. Moving from clinical trials to precision medicine: the role for predictive modeling. JAMA. 2016 Apr 26;315(16):1713-4.PMID: 27115375. DOI: 10.1001/jama.2016.4839. [Indexed for MEDLINE.]

Cardiovascular Risk Guidelines


 * 1) Pencina MJ, D'Agostino RB, Beiser AS, Cobain MR, Vasan RS. Estimating lifetime risk of developing high serum total cholesterol: adjustment for baseline prevalence and single-occasion measurements. Am J Epidemiol. 2007 Feb 15;165(4):464-72. Epub 2006 Nov 20. PMID: 17116649. DOI: 10.1093/aje/kwk025. [Indexed for MEDLINE.]
 * 2) Pencina MJ, Navar-Boggan AM, D'Agostino RB Sr, Williams K, Neely B, Sniderman AD, Peterson ED. Application of New Cholesterol Guidelines to a Population-Based Sample. N Engl J Med. 2014 Apr 10;370(15):1422-31.  Epub 2014 Mar 19.  PMID:  24645848. DOI:  10.1056/NEJMoa1315665.  [Indexed for MEDLINE.]
 * 3) Navar-Boggan AM, Peterson ED, D'Agostino RB Sr, Neely B, Sniderman AD, Pencina MJ. Hyperlipidemia in early adulthood increases long-term risk of coronary heart disease. Circulation. 2015 Feb 3;131(5):451-8. PMID: 25623155.  NIHMSID: NIHMS644802. PMCID: PMC4370230. DOI: 10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.114. 012477.  [Indexed for MEDLINE.]
 * 4) Robinson JG, Huijgen R, Ray K, Persons J, Kastelein JJ, Pencina MJ. Determining when to add nonstatin therapy:  a quantitative approach. J Am Coll Cardiol. 2016 Dec 6;68(22):2412-21. PMID: 27908345. DOI: 10.1016/j.jacc.2016.09.928. [Indexed for MEDLINE.]
 * 5) Navar-Boggan AM, Peterson ED, D'Agostino RB Sr, Pencina MJ, Sniderman AD. Using age- and sex-specific risk thresholds to guide statin therapy: one size may not fit all. J Am Coll Cardiol. 2015 Apr 28;65(16):1633-9. Epub 2015 Mar 2. PMID: 25743624. DOI: 10.1016/j.jacc.2015.02.025.  Indexed for MEDLINE.]
 * 6) Thanassoulis G, Williams K, Kimler Altobelli K, Pencina MJ, Cannon CP, Sniderman AD. Individualized statin benefit for determining statin eligibility in the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease. Circulation. 2016 Apr 19;133(16):1574-81. Epub 2016 Mar 4. PMID: 26945047. DOI: 10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA. 115.018383. [Indexed for MEDLINE.]
 * 7) Sniderman AD, D'Agostino RB Sr, Pencina MJ. The role of physicians in the era of predictive analytics. JAMA. 2015 Jul 7;314(1):25-6. PMID: 26151261. DOI: 10.1001/jama.2015.6177. [Indexed for MEDLINE.]

Cardiovascular Disease and Stroke Outcomes


 * 1) Polak JF, Pencina MJ, Pencina KM, O'Donnell CJ, Wolf PA, D’Agostino RB Sr. Carotid-wall intima-media thickness and cardiovascular events. N Engl J Med. 2011 Jul 21;365(3):213-21. PMID: 21774709.  NIHMSID: NIHMS313472. PMCID: PMC3153949  DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa1012592. [Indexed for MEDLINE.]
 * 2) Polak JF, Pencina MJ, O'Leary DH, D'Agostino RB. Common carotid artery intima-media thickness progression as a predictor of stroke in multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis.  Stroke. 2011 Nov;42(11):3017-21. Epub 2011 Sep 1. PMID: 21885840. NIHMSID: NIHMS321170. PMCID: PMC3202068. DOI: 10.1161/STROKEAHA.111.625186. [Indexed for MEDLINE.]
 * 3) Thanassoulis G, Peloso GM, Pencina MJ, Hoffmann U, Fox CS, Cupples LA, Levy D, D'Agostino RB, Hwang SJ, O'Donnell CJ. A genetic risk score is associated with incident cardiovascular disease and coronary artery calcium: the Framingham Heart Study. Circ Cardiovasc Genet. 2012 Feb 1;5(1):113-21. Epub 2012 Jan 10.  PMID: 22235037. NIHMSID: NIHMS356541. PMCID: PMC3292865. DOI: 10.1161/CIRCGENETICS.111. 961342. [Indexed for MEDLINE.]
 * 4) Xian Y, O'Brien EC, Liang L, Xu H, Schwamm LH, Fonarow GC, Bhatt DL, Smith EE, Olson DM, Maisch L, Hannah D, Lindholm B, Lytle BL, Pencina MJ, Hernandez AF, Peterson ED. Association of preceding antithrombotic treatment with acute ischemic stroke severity and in-hospital outcomes among patients with atrial fibrillation. JAMA. 2017 Mar 14;317(10):1057-1067. PMID: 28291892. DOI: 10.1001/jama.2017. 1371. [Indexed for MEDLINE.]
 * 5) Pencina MJ, D'Agostino RB Sr, Steyerberg EW. Extensions of net reclassification improvement calculations to measure usefulness of new biomarkers. Stat Med. 2011 Jan 15;30(1):11-21. PMID: 21204120. NIHMSID: NIHMS236039. PMCID: PMC3341973. DOI: 10.1002/sim.4085. [Indexed for MEDLINE.]

Use of Existing and Novel Data Sources


 * 1) Goldstein BA, Pencina MJ, Montez-Rath ME, Winkelmayer WC. Predicting mortality over different time horizons: which data elements are needed? J Am Med Inform Assoc. 2017 Jan;24(1):176-81. Epub 2016 Jun 29. PMID: 27357832. DOI: 10.1093/jamia/ocw057. [Indexed for MEDLINE.]
 * 2) Navar AM, Pencina MJ, Rymer JA, Louzao DM, Peterson ED. Use of open access platforms for clinical trial data. JAMA. 2016 Mar 22-29;315(12):1283-4. PMID: 27002452. PMCID: PMC5791147. DOI: 10.1001/jama.2016.2374. [Indexed for MEDLINE.]
 * 3) Goldstein BA, Navar AM, Pencina MJ, Ioannidis JP. Opportunities and challenges in developing risk prediction models with electronic health records data:  a systematic review. J Am Med Inform Assoc. 2017 Jan;24(1):198-208. Epub 2016 May 17. PMID: 27189013. PMCID: PMC5201180. DOI: 10.1093/jamia/ocw042. [Indexed for MEDLINE.]
 * 4) Navar AM, Peterson ED, Steen DL, Wojdyla DM, Sanchez RJ, Khan I, Song X, Gold ME, Pencina MJ. Evaluation of mortality data from the Social Security Administration Death Master File for clinical research. JAMA Cardiol. 2019 Apr 1;4(4):375-9. PMID: 30840023.  PMCID: PMC6484792. DOI: 10.1001/jamacardio.2019. 0198. [Indexed for MEDLINE.]
 * 5) Pencina MJ, Louzao DM, McCourt BJ, Adams MR, Tayyabkhan RH, Ronco P, Peterson ED. Supporting open access to clinical trial data for researchers: The Duke Clinical Research Institute-Bristol-Myers Squibb Supporting Open Access to Researchers Initiative. Am Heart J. 2016 Feb;172:64-9. Epub 2015 Nov 14. PMID: 26856217. DOI: 10.1016/j.ahj.2015.11.002. [Indexed for MEDLINE.]

7. Online Videos

 * 1) Dr. Pencina’s YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC-5cc-N60977hYVkrKBMu7w.
 * 2) “Evidence and the Individual Patient: Understanding Heterogeneous Treatment Effects for Patient-Centered Care,” National Academy of Medicine, Aug. 15, 2019, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kv3Kyd89Oy8.
 * 3) “Extracting Meaningful Insights from Big Data,” Duke Clinical Research Institute, Dec. 19, 2018, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IWthSYOxuUA.