User:Seddon/SandboxFAC

The 1988 Atlantic hurricane season was a moderately active season that proved costly and deadly, in which fifteen tropical cyclones directly affected land. The season officially began on June 1, 1988, and lasted until November 30, 1988, although activity began two days earlier when a tropical depression developed in the Caribbean Sea; these dates conventionally delimit the period of each year when most tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic basin. The first cyclone to attain tropical storm status was Alberto, which did so on August 8; this is nearly a month later than usual. The final storm of the year, Tropical Storm Keith, became extratropical on November 24.

The season produced nineteen tropical depressions, with twelve attaining tropical storm status; one tropical storm operationally classified as a tropical depression, but reclassified in post-analysis. Five tropical cyclones reached hurricane status, of which three became major hurricanes, or a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale.

The most notable cyclone of the season was Hurricane Gilbert, which, at the time, was the strongest Atlantic hurricane on record. The hurricane tracked through the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, causing devastation in Jamaica, Mexico, and many other island nations; its passage caused $5 billion in damage (1988 USD, $9 billion 2007 USD) and over 300 deaths, mostly in Mexico. Hurricane Joan struck Nicaragua as a Category 4 hurricane, which caused about $2 billion in damage (1988 USD, $3.5 billion 2007 USD) and over 200 deaths; the hurricane crossed into the eastern Pacific Ocean and was reclassified as Tropical Storm Miriam.

Preseason forecasts
Forecasts of hurricane activity are issued before each hurricane season by noted hurricane experts like Dr. William M. Gray, and his associates at Colorado State University. A normal season, as defined by NOAA, has six to fourteen named storms, with four to eight of those reaching hurricane strength, and one to three major hurricanes. The June, 1988 forecast predicted that that a total of eleven storms would form, and seven of the storms would reach hurricane status. The forecast did not specify how many of the hurricanes would reach major hurricane status.

Season Activity
The Atlantic hurricane season normally begins on June 1, but in 1988 it started two days earlier on May 30 with the formation of Tropical Depression One. It was an above average season in which nineteen tropical depressions formed. Twelve depressions became named storms, including five which reached hurricane strength and three of those reached Category 3 or above, a first in 27 years. Four hurricanes and three tropical storms made landfall in the season resulting in 550 deaths and $7 billion (1988 USD) ($12 billion 2007 USD) worth of damage.

The activity in the first two months of the season was limited due to strong wind shear from an upper tropospheric flow. Despite the tropical waves that come off the coast of Africa being vigorous by the time they reached the west Atlantic, most of the convection had ceased. This resulted in no tropical depressions forming in June and July. A decrease from the upper level easterlies allowed some of these waves to form into tropical storms and hurricanes from august onwards.

The official storm track forecast errors were to 30-40% lower than the average for the previous ten years. The 24 hour forecasts were the most accurate that had occurred since 1970, and had the most accurate 12-48 hour forecasts till 1996. This was as a result of the initial motion being the most important factor in the the forecasts.