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Neoepopseia

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0032063311000997?via=ihub

https://pubs.rsc.org/en/Content/ArticleLanding/2010/FD/c004788k#!divAbstract

Kepler
dysfunctional family, brutal quarellsome father, "He destroyed everything. He was a wrongdoer, abrupt and quarrelsome"

astrological charts kepler spoke of his family

Kepler described his mother as guerelous, quarrelsome ad upleasat. Others described her as an evil-tongued shrew- raised by an aunt who had been burned at the stake as a witch

Kepler was earsighted, liked due to smallpox, and had no interest in the act of stargazing

Kepler's fatehr was a mercenary who lost his money in an unfortunate campaign that nearly got him executed. Whe Kepler was 15, he left his family for good

jokes puzzles, riddles anagrams (4 am in summer, 5 in winter- Kepler loved it)

Kepler was a compassionate sort who refused to believe (and refused to keep silent about) the idea that heathens were damned for not believing in Christ. He sought reconcillation between Calvinists and Lutherans and even sought to be "just to Catholics". You can guess where this thinkig would take him

Kepler felt he had a talent for math, but desired to be a clergyman and serve his church

He was pressganged by his school into becoming a math teacher in Graz, southern austria

Kepler developed a reputation at university for being pious, sedate and diligent and good at horoscopes

Kepler described himself as very industrious, but "the harshest hater of work"

Kepler's teacher, Michael Mastlin, was one of a very few people who subscribed to the heliocentric system of copernicus, though he was not open about it

Kepler subscribed to the idea similar to the Pythagoreans, that the Sun, being the light of the universe, better suited a universe created in the image of God than an earth-centred universe

sun=god; fixed stars=Christ; everything between= holy spirit

Copernicus- closer in, faster speed, as the sun was the source of all change and motion, it made sense to Kepler

Underlying harmony and symmetry

Kepler despised the controversy between lutherans and calvinists and believed reconciliation the only option

astrology= "foolish little daughter" of astronomy. He was "nourishing the superstition of fatheads"

He did still believe in astrology, however, though eh assumed the influences of the palnets were far more subtle and less deterministic than supposed

In 1595 he predicted an atack by the turks a peasant uprising and a harsh winter, all of which came true

The great intellectual shift in astronomy in the 16th century was away from describing how things are and towards an understanding of why they are. Kepler asked himself simple questions

Jupiter/saturn conjunctions shifting around the zodiac their orbits forming triangles

Squares? Pentagons? No. Platonic solids, space is 3D

The reason there were six planets was that god had chosen the five platonic solids to define their distances

A force in the Sun that encouraged planets to move? Closer in, more force, farther out, less force

Mastlin was not happy with this mixing of causes (physics) and description (astronomy)

"I wished to be a theologian, and for a while I was anguished, but now behold! God is glorified also in astronomy through my work!"

periods increased by two times for every unit distance from the sun (wrong)

Scripture was intended to speak to those with no knoweldge of the cosmos

Kepler cast a horoscope for his own marriage: "a more agreable than happy marriage, in which however, there was love and dignity.

Mysterium full title

galileo was not well known, still teaching at Padua, but wrote to Kepler saying that he was keeping his copernicanism secret for fear of ridicule. Kepler encouraged him to espouse it openly

Kepler saw comets's paths as rectilinear, and their tails as clouds of vapor

Herschel
Modern astronomy was essentially invented by William Herschel.

He identified thousands of nebulae, as opposed to 200 by Messier. He found thousands of binary stars. He discovered infrared radiation and discovered the direction of the motion of the Solar System

He was self taught and a musician until the age of 35. His compositions were good enough to be performed, though they have not stood the test of time.

He constructed his own reflector, including the mirror, often working 16 hours a day and forgoing food. The telescopes he produced were the best ever made up to that point- ten times better than the standard of the day. They were so good that peer reviewers initially thought his cited magnification ridiculous and so didn't believe he had found anything.

An outsider who did not know the rules of astronomy

William Herschel was born in Hannover at a time when Hannover and England were united under the crown of House of Hannover. In 1756, in anticipation of an invasion of England by france, his regiment was sent to England (he was a military musician) and Herschel decided to learn English well enough to read John Locke.

In 1757, Herschel fled to England again to escape the French occupation of Hannover.

Herschel believed that binary stars were aligned by coincidence, and so could be used to determine parallax. John Mitchell had already shown that this was statistically viorutally impossible and that binary stars were likely gravitationally bound to one another, and so too close to be used for parallax.

A german who became an English eccentric

his paper on determining the heights of the Moon's mountains via their shadows contained references to lunar inhabitants.

The Sun "is most porbably also inhabited, like the rest of the planets, by beings whose organs are adapted to the peculiar circumstances of that vast globe". The burning light was simply an outer surface, with a lower layer of dark clouds that maintained the temperate region below.

March 13, 1781 he first observed what he took tobe a comet in the constellation taurus. He submitted his "Account of A Comet" to teh Royal Society on April 26.

On a purely scientific level, Herschel considered his planetary discovery minimal- he was interested in grander things.

a 50 percent pay cut and a move to a borderline ruin of a house in Windsor.

Herschel discovered the solar cycle

Fermi paradox
webb, where is everybody?

fermium, Fermions

.won nobel prize 1938 for probing atomic nucleus

fled Italy with Jewish wife for America

1942: Fermi's team created the first sustained nuclear reaction.

Involved in the Manhattan Project; witnessed the trinity detonation

Known as the Pope, for infallibility

knack for asking simple questions

"Fermi questions": questions that relied on educated guesswork

How many piano tuners are there in Chicago? Estimate n0 of families, no of families with pianos, no of tunings needed per piano per year, no of tunings done per tuner, no of tuners.

Los Alamos: 1950- spate of flying saucer reports. Missign trash cans; cartoon linked the two. Edward Teller, Fermi and Herbert York and emil Konopinski "Where are they?" a few calculations

Leo Szilard: "They are here, and they call themselves Hungarians"

1973: John Ball "zoo hypothesis" (though it cannot be tested)

Earth is in a "wilderness area"

1987: Martin fogg, Inteerdict scenario- galaxies reach a steady state where resources (space arks), territory and political power are resolved issues; instead information becomes the key commodity. All life-bearing planets are off limits because they are potential sources of new information. Only really works with FTL

energy requirements for a k3 civilization would allow a simulation out to 100 AU

von neumann probes- self-replicating automata

Michael Hart 1975: exponetntial colonization: galaxy colonised in 1.2 million years. Later estimates say 60 million years.

If interstellar travel is impossible, no reason to hide.

Fred Saberhagen: Berserkers Necromoorphs

Lovecraft: Why would they be interrested in us?

why would they ALL behave that way?

are artificial signals indistinguishable from natural ones?

They Are Here:
 * walking among us
 * abducting us
 * they were here
 * They are us

They don't want to contact us:
 * The Zoo hypothesis
 * Interdict- potential source of new information
 * The planetarium hypothesis
 * They have no interest in our planet because they don't use planets or suns anymore
 * They are afraid (predator hypothesis)
 * They are not curious
 * They aren't interested in us

They haven't contacted us yet:
 * They are too far away (beyond the particle horizon?)
 * They have not had time
 * They don't send out signals and don't travel
 * We have not listened long enough
 * they're not politically unified enough
 * They're Krikkiters

We don't know what we're looking for:
 * They're using different signaling methods
 * They're at a different frequency- 1.42 Ghz, the frequency of hydrogen.
 * Their maths are different

They're dead:
 * Berzerkers (necromorphs, reapers) Why are we here?
 * Comets, asteroids volcanoes viruses, overpopulation, nuclear anhillation, take your pick

Contact With Alien civilizations, Michaud

ET life is likely to be microbial; people want intelligence

The Copernican principle: We do not occupy a special place in the universe

Education, income correlate with belief in ETI

Frank drake, project Ozma, 1960

1961: informal meeting, quantify search

Is intelligence inevitable or a fluke? A question that polarises seti.

Fermi:

A taciturn, introverted man from a close-knit family

An academic star in his native Italy- he submitted a paper to Neils Bohr, who criticized it as not matching experimental results; after the development of quantum mechanics, his conclusions were found to be correct.

He attained a life-tenured professorship at the age of 26, a goal most professors only attained in their fifties.

Despite being appointed by Musso to the Italian Academy in 1928, he never had much stock for academic honor: "I am a member of a number of learned societies, the names of which I have forgotten"

On a trip to America he stopped at a gas station to repair his car, and did it so well the station's owner offered him a job.

1933: Fermi introduced the weak interaction that was responsible for radioactive decay

1934: showed that neutrons could be slowed by interaction with hydrogen to induce radioactivity

Fermi patented the process but couldn't interest any American companies. Things would change drastically come World War II.

the US government's preemption of Fermi's patent led to extensive legal wrangling after the war, and Fermi was finally compensated in 1953 to the tune of $24,000 (a little over $200,000 today).

By 1935, the political situation in Italy, with the Ethiopian war and Italy's part in the Spanish Civil War, had become so oppressive that Fermi prescribed himself "physics as soma" a common practice in the totalitarian years of teh 1930s.

The "eclipse of germany" led to Fermi polishing his English and publishing all future papers in English rather than German

for years, Fermi's response to the rise of Fascism had been to keep his head down and focus on science; never fraternising with the bigwigs as his position demanded, but never arguing against them.

1938: Erwin Schrodinger fled the Aunschluss smf came to Rome asking Fermi to help him obtain protection from the Vatican. 1938: Mussolini begins an anti-Semitic campaign with his Menifesto della Razza, which declared that all Jews were to be considered aliens and persecuted. Fermi's wife was Jewish, and, although she was not in immediate danger, that was enough for him to leave. He took a professorship at Columbia University and never looked back. As soon as he was able, he became a US citizen. 1938: Fermi was awarded the Nobel Prize in physics He learned of Hahn's splitting of the atom upon arriving in New York; the last major scientific feat from Germany in many years.

1939: graphite as a moderator rather than hydrogen

Fermi was granted a patent for the neutronic reactor, but handed it to the US government without compensation

In 1939 his work led scientists to petition Einstein to write a letter to Roosevelt, outlining the dangers of an atomic bomb.

In 1941, research on the possibility of a sustained chain reaction was taken over by teh US government, and Fermi was relocated to the University of Chicago, with which he would be associated until he died.

In 1942, Fermi initiated the first ever sustained nuclear reaction in an atomic pile below a University of Chicago squash court.

In 1944, he and his family relocated to Los Alamos, to work on the Manhattan Project

Detonation: Fermi conducted a simple experiment to determine the energy of the explosion; he dropped pieces of paper onto the ground and measured how their falling was affected by the shock wave.

Frank Drake: Is Anyone Out there?

Frank drake went from religion to deciding that morality was arbitrary, and if morality was arbitrary, then humans were arbitrary. From then on, he became fascinated with the concept of ETI.

In 1958, joined the National Radio Astronomy Observatory in Green Bank

Frank Drake had just suffered through the death of his observatory's head, Joseph Pawsey. to lighten the mood, he suggested using the radio telescope to search for extraterrestrial life.

The observatory's de facto director, Lloyd Berkner, was enthusiastic and authorised a project.

He named the project Ozma, after the princess of a far away land full of strange beings. ANd kept it largely secret.

1959: A paper published in Nature called "searching for interstellar communications" (Cocconi and Morrison: Cornell) that advocated at least trying; "The probability of success is difficult to estimate, but if we never search, the chance of success is zero". Papers across the country picked up on the conclusion.

Fearing loss of credit to Cornell, Otto Struve (director) decided to make Ozma public.

The first attempt at contact focused on Tau Ceti and Epsilon Eridani. Tau Ceti had nothing, but Epsilon Eridani produced a single massive pulse, which did not repeat. Teh resulting ambivalent language led many at teh Observatory to conclude that tehy were hiding something, an idea that has proven popular with Ufologists to this day. Once a second antenna was attached to detect terrestrial interference, the signal proved to be a passing plane.

in 1961, Drake was pursuaded by J Peter Pearman, a staff officer at teh space science board of the national academy of sciences, to hold a meeting at Green Bank to determine the research potential of the Search for ExtraTerrestrial Intelligence.

In preparation for the meeting, he formulated the Drake Equation- essentially a Fermi question.

R=1 1/5 to 1/2 have planets

ne= between 1 and five

Huang, habitable zone

Life would form if it could. probability 1

Life tends towards intelligence (multiple examples on earth) probability 1 (Lilly and dolphins)

10 - 20 percent would want to communicate with us and could

Interstellar travel was not discussed

N=L everything hinged on L. 1000-100 million years- 1000 to 100 million civilizations

van Hoener: after accounting for self-destruction or impacts, 65 hundred intelligent civilizations.

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Sagan countered with a model based on the diffusion process, and came up with a pan-colonization rate of 13 billion years, but he assumed a zero-to-near zero population growth, which seems implausible. Plus he ignored the possibility that ETs might explore out of curiosity.

Using the colonization of North America as a model (growth rate of 0.03 per year, expansion rate of 0.0003 per year) pan-colonization would occur in 5 million years. He later revised his figures to 60 million years, but the results are similar.

Sagan was 27 at the meeting, but was already a member of the National Academy of Scientists Panel on Extraterrestrial Life and and the space science board committee on exobiology.

project cyclops, philip morrison )1959 cornell) report, NASA gains official approval in 1990, goes on to 2001, 100 million dollars spent.

dolphins have been intelligent longer than we have (20 million years) covergence.

1971: internatioonal CETI meeting with kardeshev- drake suggested using arecibo

1974: search by drake and sagan at aracibo

_______ Seti 2020 Ronald D Ekers

they shoudl propagate well between stars they should suffer little interference from natural astrophysical sources they must be easy to generate and detect

microwave (30 cm) to uv (200 nm)

Transmission too expensive (and earth is too electrically noisy, though getting less so) focus on listening

leakage of electromagnetic ratiation decreases with increases in technological efficiency (lcd screens complex signals)

deliberate signals are weak and continuous (what seti searches for) or sharp and discontinupius (finite resourses)

1971 cyclops report barney oliver project cyclops ~100 billion in today's money

a giant ozma, searching nearby sunlike stars

Rare Earth
Simple unicellular life is common; animal life is rare.

in the habitable zone

right mass- retain atmosphere and ocean, retain magnetic field plate tectonics (water required?) enable land mass to enhance biotic diversity

star mass- long enough lifetime, not too much ultraviolet

"good jupiter"

not too much water, not too little

stable orbit

a mars to incubate life

large moon stabilise tilt

the right tilt

right kind of galaxy

galactic habitable zone

right amount of carbon (enough for life, not too much or runaway greenhouse)

why life may be common- extremophiles

microbes 1970s yellowstone 80C

hydrothermal vent reprosuces best at temperatures above 105C

thermophiles archaea anaerobic- cannot exist in oxygen earliest form of life?

even Pluto could support life if it harboured liquied water

michael hart- habitable zone- 1 percent out, 5 percent in

too narrow- carbonate silicate cycle

red dwarf stars are unlikely to be habitable (check)

binary star systems: unstable orbits

globular clusters population II; higher likelihood of nova; orbital disruption

galactic habitable zone

elliptical galaxies have low metallicities and little dust

supernovae are decreasing with time; metals are not being dispersed into the universe as frequently

manufacturing the base elements of life is easy, turning them into life is hard

"RNA world" in which RNA acted as a catylist to form the first proteins

euakryotes are 10,000 times larger on average than prokarytotes

endosymbiosis: many organelles contain their own dna#

Plate tectonics: aids life by

increasing diversity by increasing the number of separated habitats; High bidiversity is a cushion against mass extinction

Without plate tectonics, erosion is unchecked, eventually levelling the planet into a flat plane underdeath a shallow global ocean

generate the carbonate-silicate cycle

genrate magnetic field

oxygen must combine with iron before accumulating in the atmosphere- without iron, no delay

plate tectonics also increases oxygen by enhansing biological productivity of phospates

modified drake equation:

N* = Stars in the Milky Way Galaxy fp= fraction of stars with planets fpm = fraction with metal rich planets

ne= planets in a star's habitable zone

ng= stars in a galactic habitable zone

fi= fraction of habitable planets where life does arise

fc = fraction of planets with lfie where complex metazoans arise

fl= perscentage of a lfetime of a planet that is marked by the presence of complex metazoans

fm= fraction of planets with a large moon

fj= fraction of solar systems with Jupiter sized planets

fme= fraction of planets with a critically low number of mass extinction events

the number of insect species exceeds the number of plant species or bacterial species

Deep sea less affected by change; deep sea has fewest species

Life everywhere
Amino acids raining down from comets

Stabilising moon? Mars wanders over thousands of years 15-35 degrees. Over millions of years, 0-60 degrees. Earth even more, up to 85 degrees

Seth Shostak argues that a moonless earth would spin fast enough to stabilise itself-windy, and NASA's Eugenio Rivera's simulations show taht the giant impact that formed our moon could produce a large moon in one in three terrestrial planets. Also there is no reason life could not adapt to climatic change over millions of years

In a planetary system wth a nearby giant planet, a terra would spin much faster adn the big moon may actually damage its spin

what is the optimal level of biosphere stress?

plays both sides: climate swings without moon, climate swings (snowball earth) promote evolution

without plate tectonics, NASA, Chris McKay argues, life could have gone from unicellular to intelligent in 100 million years

giant planets have been found in orbit around stars with lower than average metallicities

Intelligent design (Guillermo Gonzalez)

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Proxima b
Two scenarios:


 * an Earth-like atmosphere chosen to explore how an idealised Earth climate would behave under the irradiation conditions of ProC B


 * a simple atmosphere consisting of nitrogen with trace CO2 for a cleaner comparison with the work of Turbet et al.


 * The Global Atmosphere (GA) 7.0 (Walters et al. 2017) configuration of the Met Office Unified Model.

This configuration will form the basis of the Met Office contribution to the next Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report ... configuration for operational numerical weather prediction in 2017. It therefore represents one of the most sophisticated and accurate models for Earth’s atmosphere

Radius / km (R⊕) 7160 (1.1)

pressure of 1 bar

Whether an ozone layer could form and survive on ProC B is highly uncertain. Ozone formation requires radiation with wavelengths of 0.16 − 0.24µm, which we expect to be in much shorter supply for ProC B, compared with Earth; see Figure 1 and Meadows et al. (2016). Meadows et al. (2016) also discuss that the likelihood of stellar flares destroying the ozone layer is quite high, and without it the chances of habitability are significantly reduced due to the large stellar fluxes at very short wavelengths (< 0.175µm) received by ProC B.

o we refrain from removing individual gases which may actually be required for the planet to be habitable, or are potentially produced by an interaction of life with the atmosphere, such as ozone and methane

The temperature on the night-side is cold due to the almost complete absence of cloud and very little water vapour. This allows the surface to continually radiate heat back to space, and cool dramatically. The only mechanism to balance this heat loss is transport from the day-side of the planet at higher levels within the atmosphere, followed by subsidence (where a layer of air descends and heats under compression) or sub-grid mixing to transport the heat down to the surface

The temperature and water-vapour profiles shown in Figure 5 appear in good agreement with Turbet et al. (2016). Figure 4 shows that there is significant shortwave heating in the stratosphere, a result of shortwave absorption by CO2 in our model, which is happening longward of 2µm. This is a feature of Proxima Centauri’s spectrum (Fig 1), and would not happen on solar system planets due to the much lower flux at this wavelength from the Sun. The heating is balanced by longwave cooling from the CO2 and water vapour, and transport of heat to the night-side of the planet. Figure 4 shows that heat transport is the dominant mechanism of heat-loss from the day-side throughout the atmosphere, and this heat is transported to the night-side where it is the only heat source and balanced by longwave cooling.

1:1 and 3:2

eccentricity 0 and 0.3

Stellar irradiance / W m−2 (S⊕) 881.7 (0.646)

1:1
 * maximum temperature on the day-side of 290 K (17 c or 62 F), and a minimum temperature in the cold-traps on the night-side of 150 K, (-123 c or -190 f).


 * the sensitivity of planetary temperatures to changes in the stellar flux received by ProC B is quite low, meaning it potentially remains habitable over a larger range of orbital radii than e.g. Earth. This is likely to be due to a combination of the tidal locking and stellar spectrum. For example, changes in low cloud and ice amounts that contribute to a strong shortwave feedback on Earth are ineffective in this configuration as low clouds and ice are found largely on the night side of the planet. On the day-side, cloud cover could be a contributing factor in keeping the surface cooler in our simulations. As shown in Figure 3, the day-side of the planet is completely covered in cloud, due to the strong stellar heating driving convection and cloud formation.

that the moisture source for the heaviest precipitation is not local. The surface moisture flux is very low at the sub-stellar point, and highest in a ring surrounding this. This inflow region to the deep convection is where the surface winds are strongest, driving a strong surface latent heat flux. The near surface flow moistens and carries this water vapour into the central sub-stellar point, before being forced upwards in the deep convection and precipitating out. Combined with Figure 6, we can infer that most of the hydrological cycle on a planet like this occurs in the region where liquid water is present at the surface, i.e. the circulation does not rely strongly on evaporation from regions where the surface is likely to be frozen. Neither does the circulation transport large amounts of water vapour into these regions, and so this configuration could be stable for long periods if the return flow of water into the warm region (via glaciers or subsurface oceans) can match the weak atmospheric transport out of this region.

3:2 the mean surface temperature is above 0◦C in a narrow equatorial band, with seasonal maximum temperatures above freezing extending to 35◦ in latitude north and south of the equator.

In an eccentric orbit the stellar heating is concentrated in two hot-spots on opposite sides of the planet (Dobrovolskis 2015), leading to large regions of the surface which are warmer than their surroundings

The increase in radiation as the eccentric orbit approaches periastron is much greater than the decrease in radiation as it approaches apoastron, resulting in a significant increase in the mean stellar flux over large regions of the planet.

To test the possibility of the planet falling into a snowball state in this orbital configuration, we again set the surface albedo to be 0.27 everywhere, to represent a snow/ice covered surface. This represents the most extreme scenario possible, as it would imply that any liquid water at the surface has managed to freeze during the night, which only lasts 12 Earth days. Figure 9 shows that even in this case, the mean surface temperature remains above zero (and in fact the minimum only just reaches freezing), implying that the chance of persistent ice formation in these regions is small and the planet is unlikely to snowball.

Additional tests with intermediate values of orbital eccentricity allow us to estimate that an eccentricity of ≈ 0.1 would be required to maintain liquid water at the surface and prevent this configuration falling into a snowball state. The intermediate eccentricity simulations display many features of the most eccentric orbit presented here, i.e. the formation of hot-spot regions, but their strength obviously increases with increasing eccentric two hot-spots on opposite sides of the planet and a much reduced planetary area in which water would be frozen. There are no significant cold-traps, with the polar regions being the coldest area with surface temperatures just above 200 K, not too dissimilar from Earth