User:SlimVirgin/Fred Singer

Siegfried Fred Singer (born September 27, 1924) is an American atmospheric physicist and professor emeritus of environmental science at the University of Virginia, who is known for his work in space research, atmospheric pollution, rocket and satellite technology and, more recently, for his outspoken skepticism about climate change. He is the author or editor of several books, including Global Effects of Environmental Pollution (1970), The Ocean in Human Affairs (1989), Global Climate Change (1989), The Greenhouse Debate Continued (1992), and Hot Talk, Cold Science (1997). He has also co-authored Unstoppable Global Warming: Every 1,500 Years (2007) with Dennis Avery, and Climate Change Reconsidered (2009) with Craig Idso.

Singer has had a varied career in the armed forces, government, and academia. Before obtaining a Ph.D. in physics from Princeton University in 1948, he worked as a scientific liaison officer in the U.S. Embassy in London, and designed mines for the U.S. Navy. He became a leading figure in early space research, was involved in the development of earth observation satellites, and in 1962 established the National Weather Bureau's Satellite Service Center. He was the founding dean of the University of Miami School of Environmental and Planetary Sciences in 1964, deputy assistant administrator for the Environmental Protection Agency, and chief scientist for the Department of Transportation. He held a professorship with the University of Virginia from 1971 until 1994, and with George Mason University until 2000.

He has been involved in the global warming controversy for a number of years and in 1990 founded the Science & Environmental Policy Project to present the skeptical position. Known as a leading climate contrarian, he was named in 2006 by the CBC as one of a small group of scientists creating a stand-off that is undermining the global response to climate change. In contrast to the majority scientific view, Singer argues there is no evidence that increases in carbon dioxide produced by human beings cause global warming, that the temperature of the planet has always varied, and that if temperatures rise it will be good for humankind. He is an outspoken opponent of the Kyoto Protocol, and has said of the climate models that scientists use to predict future trends that "models are very nice, but they are not reality and they are not evidence."

Early life and education
Singer was born in Vienna, Austria, his father a jeweler and his mother a homemaker. When the Nazis invaded, the family fled, Singer leaving on a children's transport train with other Jewish children. He ended up in England, where he lived in Northumberland, working for a time as a teenage optician. Several years later he emigrated to Ohio and became an American citizen in 1944. He received a B.E.E. in electrical engineering from Ohio State University in 1943, and an A.M. in physics from Princeton in 1944. He taught physics at Princeton while he worked on his masters and his doctorate, obtaining his Ph.D. there in 1948 with a thesis on "Extensive Airshowers of Cosmic Rays." His supervisor was John Archibald Wheeler, and his thesis committee included J. Robert Oppenheimer and Niels Bohr.

1950: United States Navy
After his masters, Singer joined the Armed Forces, working for the United States Navy on mine warfare and countermeasures from 1944 until 1946. While with the Naval Ordnance Laboratory he developed an arithmetic element for an electronic digital calculator that he called an "electronic brain." He was discharged in 1946 and joined the Upper Atmosphere Rocket Program at the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory in Silver Spring, Maryland, working there until 1950. He focused on ozone, cosmic rays, and the ionosphere, all measured using balloons and rockets launched from White Sands, New Mexico, or from ships out at sea. Rachel White Scheuering writes that for one mission to launch a rocket, he sailed with a naval operation to the Arctic, and also conducted rocket launching from ships at the equator.

From 1950 to 1953, he was attached to the U.S. Embassy in London as a scientific liaison officer with the Office of Naval Research, where he studied research programs in Europe into cosmic radiation and nuclear physics. While there, he was one of eight delegates with a background in guided weapons projects to address the Fourth International Congress of Astronautics in Zurich in August 1953, at a time when, as The New York Times reported, most scientists saw space flight as thinly disguised science fiction.

1951: Design of early satellites


The New York Times wrote in 1962 that Singer was one of the first scientists to urge the launching of earth satellites for scientific observation during the 1950s. He designed the first instruments used in satellites to measure cosmic radiation and ozone, and in 1951 or 1952 designed the MOUSE&mdash;the Minimal Orbital Unmanned Satellite, Earth. It weighed 100 pounds, and according to the Smithsonian National Air and Space Museum contained Geiger counters for measuring cosmic rays, photo cells for scanning the earth, telemetry electronics for sending data back to earth, a magnetic data storage device, and rudimentary solar energy cells. The Baltimore News Post reported in 1957 that had Singer's arguments about the need for satellites been heeded, the U.S. could have beaten Russia by launching the first earth satellite. He also invented the backscatter photometer ozone-monitoring instrument for early versions of weather satellites.

1953: University of Maryland
Singer moved back to the United States in 1953, where he took up an associate professorship in physics at the University of Maryland, and at the same time served as the director of the Center for Atmospheric and Space Physics. Scheuering writes that his work involved conducting experiments on rockets and satellites, remote sensing, radiation belts, the magnetosphere, and meteorites. He developed a new method of launching rockets into space: firing them from a high-flying plane, both with and without a pilot. The Navy adopted the idea, and Singer supervised the project. He received a White House Special Commendation from President Eisenhower in 1954 for his work.

He became one of 12 board members of the American Astronautical Society, an organization formed in 1954 to represent the country's 300 leading scientists and engineers in the area of guided missiles&mdash;he was one of seven members of the board to resign in December 1956 after a series of disputes about the direction and control of the group.

The Washington Post reported in November 1957 that Singer and other scientists at the university had successfully designed and fired three new "Oriole" rockets off the Virginia Capes. The rockets weighed less than 25 pounds and could be built for around $2000. Built by Republic Aviation and fired from the U.S.S. Launcher, a converted Navy LSM, they could reach an altitude of 50,000 feet and had a complete telemetry system to send back information on cosmic, ultraviolet and X-rays. Singer told the newspaper that the firings placed "the exploration of outer space with high altitude rockets on the same basis, cost-wise and effort-wise, as low atmosphere measurements with weather balloons. From now on, we can fire thousands of these rockets all over the world with very little cost."

In February 1958, when he was head of the cosmic ray group of the University of Maryland's physics department, he was congratulated in a telegram to the president of the university from President Eisenhower for his work in satellite research. In April 1958, he was appointed as a consultant to the House Committee on Astronautics and Space Exploration, which was preparing to hold hearings on President Eisenhower's proposal for a new agency to handle space research, and a month later received the Ohio State University's Distinguished Alumnus Award. He became a full professor at Maryland in 1959, and was chosen that year by the United States Junior Chamber of Commerce as one of the country's ten outstanding young men.

In January 1960 The New York Times reported a presentation of Singer's to the American Physical Society, where he sketched out his vision of what the environment around the earth might consist of, extending up to 40,000 miles into space. He became known for his early predictions about the properties of the electrical particles trapped around the earth, which were partly verified by later discoveries in satellite experiments. In December 1960, he suggested the existence of a shell of visible dust particles around the earth some 600 to 1,000 miles in space, beyond which there was a layer of smaller particles, a micron or less in diameter, extending 2,000 to 4,000 miles. In March 1961 Singer and another University of Maryland physicist, E. J. Opik, were given a $97,000 grant by NASA to conduct a three-year study of interplanetary gas and dust.

1960: Artificial Phobos hypothesis
In 1960, Singer commented in an article in Astronautics on the theory of Iosif Shklovsky (later mentioned in a 1966 book by Carl Sagan and Shklovsky) that the orbit of the Martian moon Phobos suggests that it is hollow, which implies it is of artificial origin. Singer wrote: "My conclusion there is, and here I back Shklovsky, that if the satellite is indeed spiraling inward as deduced from astronomical observation, then there is little alternative to the hypothesis that it is hollow and therefore martian made. The big "if" lies in the astronomical observations; they may well be in error. Since they are based on several independent sets of measurements taken decades apart by different observers with different instruments, systematic errors may have influenced them." Later measurements confirmed Singer's big "if" caveat: Shklovsky overestimated Phobos' rate of altitude loss due to bad early data. Ufologists continue to present Singer as an unconditional supporter of Shklovsky's artificial Phobos hypothesis.

Time magazine wrote in 1969 that Singer had had a lifelong fascination with Phobos and Mars's second moon, Deimos. He told Time it might be possible to pull Deimos into the earth's orbit so it could be examined. During an international space symposium in May 1966, attended by space scientists from the United States and Soviet Union, he first proposed that manned landings on the moons would be a logical step after a manned landing on the earth's moon. He pointed out that the very small sizes of Phobos and Deimos&mdash;approximately 14 and eight miles in diameter and sub milli-g surface gravity&mdash;would make it easier for a spacecraft to land and take off again.

1962: National Weather Center and University of Miami
In 1962, on leave from the university, Singer was named as the first director of meteorological satellite services for the National Weather Satellite Center, now part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and directed a program for using satellites to forecast the weather. He stayed there until 1964. He told Time magazine in 1969 that he enjoyed moving around. "Each move gave me a completely new perspective," he said. "If I had sat still, I'd probably still be measuring cosmic rays, the subject of my thesis at Princeton. That's what happens to most scientists." When he stepped down as director he received a Department of Commerce Gold Medal Award for Distinguished Federal Service.

In 1964, he became the first dean of the School of Environmental and Planetary Sciences at the University of Miami in 1964, the first school of its kind in the country, dedicated to space-age research. In December 1965, The New York Times reported on a conference Singer hosted in Miami Beach during which five groups of scientists, working independently, presented research identifying what they believed was the remains of a primordial flash that occurred when the universe was born.

1967: Public policy and predictions
In 1967 he accepted the position of deputy assistant secretary with the U.S. Department of the Interior, where he was in charge of water quality and research. When the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency was created on 1970, he became its deputy assistant administrator of policy. Scheuering writes that the creation of the EPA heralded a new age of government responsibility toward the environment and the need to translate that into policy.

In October 1967, Singer wrote an article for The Washington Post from the perspective of 2007. His predictions included that man-made satellites had been orbiting the earth for 50 years. Planets had been explored but not colonized, and although rockets had become more powerful they had not replaced aircraft and ramjet vehicles. None of the fundamental laws of physics had been overturned. There had been a managerial revolution; the creation by early space exploration of a cadre of highly trained technologist-managers was one of the most important spin-offs of the space program. There was increased understanding of the natural environment, and the relationships between the atmosphere, oceans, and the land. As the scale of human activity increased, so had the understanding of the subtle relationships between large-scale irrigation schemes and the climate. Weather satellites were able to indicate the trend of climate change. Population in the U.S. had doubled and the demand for water and energy had risen by a factor of four. There was increased reliance on the electronic computer and data processor; the most exciting development was the increase in human intellect by direct electronic storage of information in the brain&mdash;the coupling of the brain to an external computer, thereby gaining direct access to an information library.

1971–1994 University of Virginia
Singer accepted a professorship in Environmental Sciences at the University of Virginia in 1971, a position he held until 1994, where he taught classes on environmental issues such as ozone depletion, acid rain, climate change, population growth, and public policy issues related to oil and energy. In 1987 he took up a two-year post as chief scientist at the Department of Transportation, and in 1989 joined the Institute of Space Science and Technology in Gainesville, Florida. When he retired from Virginia in 1994, he became Distinguished Research Professor at the Institute for Humane Studies at George Mason University until 2000.

Consultancies
Singer has worked as a consultant for several government agencies, including the House Select Committee on Space, NASA, the Government Accountability Office, the National Science Foundation, the United States Atomic Energy Commission, National Research Council, the Department of Defense Strategic Defense Initiative, Department of Energy Nuclear Waste Panel, and the Department of the Treasury. Other clients have included the states of Virginia, Alaska, and Pennsylvania. In the private sector he has worked for Mitre Corp., GE, Ford, General Motors; Exxon, Shell, Unocal Sun Oil, and ARCO on oil pricing; and Lockheed Martin, Martin-Marietta, McDonnell-Douglas, ANSER, and IBM on space research. He has also advised the Independent Institute, the American Council on Science and Health, and Frontiers of Freedom.

Writing
Singer has written frequently in the mainstream press throughout his academic career, including in The New York Times, Washington Post and Wall Street Journal, often striking up positions that go against mainstream thinking, his overall position one of distrust of federal regulations and a faith in the free market. He believes in what Rachel White Scheuering calls "free market environmentalism": that market principles and incentives should be sufficient to lead to the protection of the environment and conservation of resources.

Regular themes in his articles have been energy, oil embargoes, OPEC, Iran, and rising prices. Throughout the 1970s, for example, he downplayed the idea of an energy crisis and said it was largely a media event. In several papers in the 1990s and 2000s he struck up other positions against the mainstream, questioning the link between UV-B and melanoma rates, and that between CFCs and stratospheric ozone loss. Kert Davies of Greenpeace told ABC News in March 2008 that Singer was a career skeptic. "He believes that environmental problems are all overblown," Davies said, "and he's made a career on being that voice."

During Operation Desert Storm in 1991, he argued that smoke from the Kuwaiti oil fires would have little impact, in opposition to most commentators. He debated the astronomer Carl Sagan on ABC's Nightline, Sagan arguing that the smoke might loft into the upper atmosphere and lead to massive agricultural failures. Singer argued that it would rise to 3,000 feet then be rained out after a few days. Singer's position proved correct: the fires had little impact beyond the Gulf region.

The public debates in which Singer has received most criticism have been about secondhand smoke and global warming. He has questioned the link between secondhand smoke and lung cancer, and has been an outspoken opponent of the mainstream scientific view on climate change; he argues there is no evidence that increases in carbon dioxide produced by human beings is causing global warming and that the temperature of the earth has always varied. A CBC Fifth Estate documentary in 2006 linked these two debates, naming Singer as a scientist who has acted as a consultant to industry in both areas, either directly or through a public relations firm.

Secondhand smoke
In 1994 Singer was involved as a writer and reviewer of a report on secondhand smoke published by the Alexis de Tocqueville Institution, of which Singer was a senior fellow at the time. The report criticized the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for their 1993 study about the cancer risks of passive smoking, calling it "junk science". Singer also appeared on a tobacco industry list of people who could write op-ed pieces defending the industry’s views, according to Derek Yach and Stella Aguinaga Bialous writing in the American Journal of Public Health.

British journalist George Monbiot wrote in The Guardian in 2006 that APCO, a public relations firm, sent a memo mentioning Singer in 1993 to Ellen Merlo, vice-president of Philip Morris USA, the tobacco company. Philip Morris had just commissioned APCO to help rebut the EPA's 1993 study. The memo said: "As you know, we have been working with Singer and Dr. Dwight Lee, who have authored articles on junk science and indoor air quality (IAQ) respectively ..." Monbiot writes that an article written by Singer&mdash;"Junk Science at the EPA"&mdash;said that the dangers of environmental tobacco smoke were based on what Singer called a shocking distortion of scientific evidence, and that the EPA had had to rig the numbers in its report. Monbiot added that he had no evidence that Singer had been paid by Philip Morris.

Singer told CBC's The Fifth Estate in 2006 that he stood by the position that the EPA had "cooked the data" to show that secondhand smoke causes lung cancer. CBC said that tobacco money had paid for Singer's research and for his promotion of it, and that it was organized by APCO. Singer told CBC that it made no difference where the money came from. "They don't carry a note on a dollar bill saying 'This comes from the tobacco industry,'" he said. "In any case I was not aware of it, and I didn't ask APCO where they get their money. That's not my business."

Singer's position
In the 2006 CBC Fifth Estate documentary, Singer was named as one of a small group of scientists who have created what CBC called a stand-off that is undermining the political response to global warming. In contrast to the majority scientific position, he argues there is no evidence that the increases in carbon dioxide produced by humans cause global warming, and that if temperatures do rise it will be good for humankind. "We are certainly putting more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere," he told The Daily Telegraph in 2009. "However there is no evidence that this high CO2 is making a detectable difference. It should in principle, however the atmosphere is very complicated and one cannot simply argue that just because CO2 is a greenhouse gas it causes warming." He told CBC:

"It was warmer a thousand years ago than it is today. Vikings settled Greenland. Is that good or bad? I think it's good. They grew wine in England, in northern England. I think that's good. At least some people think so.'"

He believes that radical environmentalists are exaggerating the dangers. "The underlying effort here seems to be to use global warming as an excuse to cut down the use of energy," Singer said. "It's very simple: if you cut back the use of energy, then you cut back economic growth. And believe it or not, there are people in the world who believe we have gone too far in economic growth."

SEPP
In 1990, Singer set up the Scientific & Environmental Protection Project (SEPP) to argue against preventive measures against global warming. After the 1991 United Nations Conference on Environment and Development, the Earth Summit, Singer started writing and speaking out frequently to cast doubt on the science. He predicted disastrous economic damage from any restrictions on fossil fuel use. He argued that the natural world and its weather patterns are complex and ill-understood, and that little is known about the dynamics of heat exchange from the oceans to the atmosphere, or the role of clouds. As the scientific consensus grew, Singer continued to argue from a skeptical position.

He has repeatedly criticized the climate models that predict global warming. In 1994 he ran his own analysis and found that the temperatures the model predicted for 1950–1980 deviated from the temperatures that had actually occurred, from which he concluded in his regular column in The Washington Times&mdash;with the headline that day "Climate Claims Wither under the Luminous Lights of Science"&mdash;that climate models are faulty. Scientists Paul and Anne Ehrlich wrote in 1998 that Singer had entered faulty data into the models: he had not adjusted his numbers to compensate for the cooling effects of aerosols in the atmosphere and had failed to include the actual temperatures of the 1980s.

In 2007 he collaborated on a study that found tropospheric temperature trends of 'Climate of the 20th Century' models differed from satellite observations by twice the model mean uncertainty. A paper by Benjamin Santer and colleagues argued that Singer and coauthors had erred in neglecting the effects of inter-annual temperature trends, and that they had used a statistical method that erroneously made the modeled and observed temperatures appear to disagree. Santer's work found that the method indicated disagreement even when tested with synthetic data sets that had been deliberately constructed to agree with one another.

Funding
Scheuering writes that, when SEPP began, it was affiliated to the Washington Institute for Values in Public Policy, a think tank run by the Unification Church. A 1990 article for the Cato Institute identifies Singer as the director of the science and environmental policy project at the Washington Institute for Values in Public Policy, on leave from the University of Virginia. Scheuering writes that Singer has since cut ties with the Washington Institute, and receives funding through consultancy work and grants from foundations and oil companies, such as ARCO, ExxonMobil, Shell, and Unocal. Singer has said his financial relationships do not influence his research. Scheuering writes that his conclusions concur with the economic interests of the companies who pay him, in that the companies want to see a reduction in environmental regulation.

In August 2007 Newsweek reported that in April 1998 a dozen people from what it called "the denial machine" met at the American Petroleum Institute's Washington headquarters. The meeting included Singer's group, the George C. Marshall Institute, and ExxonMobil. Newsweek said that, according to an eight-page memo that was leaked, the meeting proposed a $5-million campaign to convince the public that the science of global warming was controversial and uncertain. The plan was leaked to the press and never implemented. The week after the story, Newsweek published a contrary view from Robert Samuelson, one of its columnists, who said the story of an industry-funded denial machine was contrived and fundamentally misleading.

ABC News reported in March 2008 that Singer said he is not on the payroll of the energy industry, but he acknowledged that SEPP had received one unsolicited charitable donation of $10,000 from ExxonMobil, and that it was one percent of all donations received. Singer said that his connection to Exxon was more like being on their mailing list than holding a paid position.

The relationships have discredited Singer's research among members of the scientific community, according to Scheuering. Congresswoman Lynn Rivers questioned Singer's credibility during a congressional hearing in 1995, saying he had not been able to publish anything in a peer-reviewed scientific journal for the previous 15 years, except for one technical comment.

Opposition to the IPCC
In 1995 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) issued a report reflecting the scientific consensus that the balance of evidence suggests there is a discernible human influence on global climate. Singer responded with a letter to Science magazine saying the IPCC report had presented material selectively. He wrote: "The summary does not mention that the satellite data&mdash;the only truly global measurements, available since 1979&mdash;show no warming at all, but actually a slight cooling." Scheuering writes that Singer acknowledges the surface thermometers from weather stations do show warming, but he argues that the satellites provide better data because their measurements cover pole to pole. According to Scheuering, Singer's critics say the weather satellite record only goes back to 1979, and that satellite readings have failed to account for differences in measurement from the gradual decay of satellite orbits; when those readings are corrected, they show the same warming trend as the ground measurements.

Leipzig Declaration
Singer wrote the "Leipzig Declaration on Global Climate Change in the U.S." in 1995, updating it in 1997 to rebut the Kyoto Protocol. The Kyoto Protocol was the result of an international convention held in Kyoto, Japan, during which several industrialized nations agreed to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. Singer's declaration read:

"Energy is essential for economic growth ... We understand the motivation to eliminate what are perceived to be the driving forces behind a potential climate change; but we believe the Kyoto Protocol&mdash;to curtail dioxide emissions from only a part of the world community&mdash;is dangerously simplistic, quite ineffective, and economically destructive to jobs and standards-of-living."

Scheuering writes that Singer circulated this in the United States and Europe and gathered 100 signatories, though she says some of the signatories' credentials were questioned. At least 20 were television weather reporters, some did not have science degrees, and 14 were listed as professors without specifying a field. According to Scheuering, some of them later said they believed they were signing a document in favour of action against climate change. Danish journalist Øjvind Hesselager wrote that 12 of the listed signatories denied having signed the declaration, with two stating they had never even heard of it.

NIPCC
Singer had the idea of setting up the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC) in 2004 when a group of scientists met at a United Nations climate conference in Milan. It organized an international climate workshop in Vienna in April 2007, and calls itself an international coalition of scientists that provide what they say is an independent examination of the evidence for climate change.

Singer prepared an NIPCC report called "Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate," published in March 2008 by the Heartland Institute, a conservative think tank. ABC News said the same month that unnamed climate scientists from NASA, Stanford, and Princeton who spoke to ABC about the report dismissed it as "fabricated nonsense." In a letter of complaint to ABC News, Singer said the piece used "prejudicial language, distorted facts, libelous insinuations, and anonymous smears."

The Great Global Warming Swindle
Singer was interviewed for a 90-minute polemical documentary, The Great Global Warming Swindle, which aired on Britain's Channel 4 in March 2007. The program presented the climate-change debate from the minority skeptical perspective, arguing that global warming was a conspiracy and a fraud. During his interview, Singer purported to describe the views of Sir David King, the British government's former chief scientist, that by the end of the century the only inhabitable place on earth will be the Antarctic. "And humanity may survive thanks to some breeding couples who moved to the Antarctic," Singer said, "it would be hilarious actually if it weren't so sad." Ofcom, Britain's independent telecommunications regulator, ruled in July 2008 that King's views had been mispresented, and that Singer had misquoted King with his reference to "breeding couples," which came from a statement by another scientist, Sir James Lovelock.

"Climategate"
In December 2009, after hundreds of e-mails from the University of East Anglia's Climatic Research Unit were leaked&mdash;a controversy that came to be known as "Climategate"&mdash;Singer accused the scientists involved of suppressing data, smearing opponents, and misusing the peer review process. He argued that it exposed a flawed process, "and now it turns out that global warming might have been 'man made' after all."

Selected publications

 * Global Effects of Environmental Pollution (Reidel, 1970)
 * Manned Laboratories in Space (Reidel, 1970)
 * Is There an Optimum Level of Population? (McGraw-Hill, 1971)
 * The Changing Global Environment (Reidel, 1975)
 * Arid Zone Development (Ballinger, 1977)
 * Economic Effects of Demographic Changes (Joint Economic Committee, U.S. Congress, 1977)
 * Cost-Benefit Analysis in Environmental Decisionmaking (Mitre Corp, 1979)
 * Energy (W.H. Freeman, 1979)
 * The Price of World Oil (Annual Reviews of Energy, Vol. 8, 1983)
 * Free Market Energy (Universe Books, 1984)
 * Oil Policy in a Changing Market (Annual Reviews of Energy, Vol. 12, 1987)
 * The Ocean in Human Affairs (Paragon House, 1989)
 * The Universe and Its Origin: From Ancient Myths to Present Reality and Future Fantasy (Paragon House, 1990)
 * Global Climate Change: Human and Natural Influences (Paragon House, 1989)
 * The Greenhouse Debate Continued (ICS Press, 1992)
 * The Scientific Case Against the Global Climate Treaty (SEPP, 1997)
 * Hot Talk, Cold Science: Global Warming's Unfinished Debate (The Independent Institute, 1997)
 * with Dennis Avery. Unstoppable Global Warming: Every 1500 Years (Rowman & Littlefield, 2007)
 * with Craig Idso. Climate Change Reconsidered: 2009 Report of the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC) (2009).