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Michael Kumhof is Deputy Division Chief for the Modelling Unit at the Research Department of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). He is responsible for developing the International Monetary Fund’s Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model (a Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model). It's used for IMF policy and scenario analyses in multilateral and bilateral surveillance, for the World Economic Outlook, and for G20 work. It is also used by several central banks.

As a researcher, one of Kumhof's most noticed publications is probably the IMF working paper The Chicago Plan Revisited, in which he and co-author Jaromir Benes analyses the Chicago plan, a collection of banking reforms suggested by University of Chicago economists in the wake of the Great Depression. Other noticeable publications are: the IMF working paper "Inequality, Leverage and Crises: The Case of Endogenous Default", in which the authors Kumhof et. al. studies how crises can arise as a result of increasing income inequalities; and the IMF working paper "The Future of Oil: Geology versus Technology", in which the authors presents a new model for forecasting oil prices and oil output, based on both the geological and technological view, and it performs far better than existing empirical models, one of the more important conclusions is that they predict a near doubling of oil prices in the next decade.

Major publications

 * The Chicago Plan Revisited (pdf), 2012, IMF Working Paper No 12/202.
 * Inequality, Leverage and Crises: The Case of Endogenous Default (pdf), 2013, IMF Working Paper No 13/249.
 * The Future of Oil: Geology versus Technology (pdf), 2012, IMF Working Paper No 12/109.