User:Spainteam/Climate change in Spain

Greenhouse gas emissions

Four sectors generate 90% of emissions, namely transport, industry, agriculture and energy.

Energy consumption

Greenhouse gas emissions in Spain in 2018 were 334.3 million tonnes of co2. This is 25% lower than in 2007 when the peak was reached, mainly due to emission reductions in the energy sector.

The energy sector (including transport) is the largest GHG emitter, accounting for 76% of the total in 2018.

Per capita co2 emissions in 2019 were 5.34 t, the lowest since 1988.

CO2 emissions are dominated by the combustion of fossil fuels for energy production and by the industrial production of materials such as cement.

As for methane emissions, which is a very potent greenhouse gas, these come mainly from agriculture and waste with 24.44 and 12.18 million t of co2 equivalents respectively. Agriculture is also responsible for the emission of 15.88 million tonnes of co2 equivalent of another potent greenhouse gas, nitrous oxide (2019 data).

The data shown in the table above refer to peninsular Spain. Apart from the Balearic Islands, whose electricity production is mainly satisfied with natural gas and some solar energy, and the Canary Islands, which produce almost all their electricity with oil.

Spain is considered an energy island, as its electricity import and export capacity is very limited, being 2.8 GW with France and 3.70 GW with Portugal.

The following table shows the values in percentage of electricity produced by each source and its associated emissions for the year 2022

Transportation

Transport is the sector where GHG emissions are the highest, accounting for 27% of total GHG emissions.

GHG emissions from road transport account for 90% of the total GHG emissions from the transport sector in Spain. Light-duty vehicles, such as passenger cars and motorbikes contribute 66% of the total emissions. Heavy trucks and buses account for the remaining 34%.

Fossil fuels

A large part of Spain's energy demand comes from fossil fuels, which account for 72% of the total. In 2019, GHG emissions from fossil fuel combustion amounted to 236.4 Mt CO2. By fuel, while oil produced 42.5% of the energy, it was responsible for 60.2% of the emissions. Natural gas supplied 25.5% and generated 30.1% of emissions. Coal and peat generated 4.2% of energy and emitted 8% of GHGs. Finally biofuels and waste generated 6.4% of energy and emitted 6.7%.

Impacts on the natural environment

Temperature and weather changes

Based on the IPCC reports, different scenarios have been developed in order to study the future climate. The AEMET (Spanish meteorology agency) has studied 3 different scenarios of the climatic evolution of Spain until the year 2100: one RCP 4.5, another one RCP 6, and the last one RCP8.5. The first scenario (RCP4.5) envisages an increase in greenhouse gas emissions for several more decades, before stabilising and then decreasing before the end of the century. The RCP8.5 scenario models the most extreme case, with no regulation of greenhouse gas emissions.

In the best studied scenario (RCP 4.5) the annual maximum temperature increase would be of 2-4 ºC between 2081 and 2100, with an uncertainty of 0.5-1.5 ºC.

Moving on, in the projections for annual maximum temperature increase in the RCP 6.0 we see an increase of 1-4 ºC between 2046 and 2065, and of 3-5 ºC between 2081 and 2100. These predictions also show certain uncertainties; in particular, uncertainties of 0.5-1.5 ºC in the 2046-2065 scenario, and of 0.5-2 ºC in the 2081-2100 scenario.

These results are not as bad as in the RCP 8.5 scenario, in which annual maximum temperature increases of 4-7 ºC are expected for the 2081-2100. Of course, these predictions come with uncertainties too, in this case between 1.5 and 3 ºC.

Moving on to precipitation, many changes are expected regarding this parameter. In the best possible studied scenario (RCP 4.5), annual precipitation is expected to change between +10% (in specific localised regions) to -20% with an uncertainty of up to 30% for the years 2081-2100. On the other extreme, the expected annual precipitation for the RCP 8.5 varies from +10% to -30% with uncertainties of 10-30% between 2081 and 2100.

Extreme Weather Events

Heatwaves

Spain has had many heat waves, and the years that stand out the most are the following:
 * 2017 for being the year with most heat waves, specifically 5. Running second are 1991 and 2016 with 4 heat waves each.
 * 2003 for registering the longest heat wave (16 days) which caused thousands of deaths in Europe. 2003 had the hottest summer ever recorded with an average national temperature of 24.94 ºC, followed by 2017 and 2015.
 * 2015 for having the longest heat wave which lasted for 26 days.
 * 2012 for having the heatwave that affected the most surface, in august 10th, in particular, it affected 40 provinces out of the 50 that Spain has.

Winter of 2022-2023

December was the hottest one recorded in history. In general, the whole of winter of 2022-2023 was hot and damp. It was the fifth hottest winter of the XXI century..

Meteorological drought

After analysing the 12 months previous to march of 2023, it can be seen that peninsular Spain has been in a meteorological drought since January 2022.

The happening of all these recent weather events is probably made more likely because of climate change.

Water resources

The effect that climate change has on water resources can be aggravated when occurring in regions that already had low water resources levels and recurring droughts. In Europe, Spain’s water resources will be severely affected according to existing climate change scenarios. However, it is difficult to accurately detect these effects due to the natural variability of the water cycle and the impact of human water usage on flow rates. As a result, there is a need to enhance the assessment of climate change impacts by using hydrological simulation models.

River basin districts with a higher water exploitation index appear to experience more significant reductions in mean annual runoff. If the predicted climate change scenarios in Spain materialize, the traditional measures used to combat water scarcity must be applied more intensively and in a way that is consistent with regional effects on water resources. Policymakers in Spain face the challenge of comprehending the impact of climate change and devising and executing policies that guarantee the best levels of adaptation to the expected decrease in water resources in the most impacted regions, particularly those already facing water scarcity.

In Spain, water resources are expected to experience more frequent and severe droughts and floods, as well as temperature increases and decreases in river flows, resulting in reduced availability for various purposes. Consequently, these impacts may aggravate existing conflicts between Spanish regions and further elevate water as a potential powerful political tool.

Sea level rise

The Ebro Delta is a significant wetland area in the western Mediterranean. About 40% of the delta plain is less than 0.5 m above mean sea level, and some part of the southern margin is at mean sea level while being protected by dikes. The annual relative sea level rise (RSLR) rate in the Ebro Delta may be at least 3 mm/yr.

To offset negative impacts from waterlogging and salt intrusion and maintain land elevation, future management plans should consider the RSLR and regulate freshwater and sediment flows from the river. This will entail the partial removal of sediments that are trapped behind the Ribarroja and Mequinença dams, as the stocks and inputs of sediments in the corresponding reservoirs are adequate for land elevation of around 50 cm in the entire delta plain.

Coastal measurements indicate that the global mean sea level has risen at a rate of 1.8 mm yr−1 from 1950 to 2000, with regional variability. In the Bay of Biscay (north of Spain), coastal tide gauge records indicate that sea-level rise is accelerating, which is consistent with rates observed from satellite imagery in the open ocean since 1993.

Coastal habitats have been mapped via historical airborne photography from 1954 and high-resolution imagery from 2004. The analysis of tide gauge records from Santander (northern Spain) shows that relative mean sea level has been rising at a rate of 2.08 ± 0.33 mm yr−1 from 1943 to 2004, consistent with sea-level trends from other measurements in the region. Using a LIDAR-based DTM, the study predicts an 11.1 ha change in the Gipuzkoan coast due to sea-level rise within a 50-year period. However, only 2.95 ha of change were detected from historical and recent orthophotography, possibly due to sea-level rise, while 98 ha were transformed by human impacts. Therefore, this suggests that local human impact poses a greater threat to Basque coastal and estuarine habitats compared to natural erosive processes and global climate change driving forces.

Biodiversity

A study conducted in North East Spain concluded that the disappearance of white-clawed crayfish, Mediterranean barbel, chub, European eel, and southern water vole was clearly related to the hydrological changes of the stream the study took place in. The study suggested that no other factors could explain such disappearance. It is important to note that there is no industrial or agrarian sewage in the Olzinelles valley that could cause water quality to deteriorate. Furthermore, in recent years, the strong industrial pollution in the main river (Tordera) has been reduced by the construction of sewage treatment plants and other administrative measures. These species had no market value in the study area, and fishing and capturing were occasional, so it is unlikely that negative effects on their populations resulted from these activities. Additionally, the human pressure on these species has decreased over the years, considering that the population of the valley has dropped by 76% from 1924 to 2007.

The disappearance of white-clawed crayfish in the Olzinelles stream may have been due to the loss of water flow or the impact of the red swamp crayfish (Procambarus clarkii), one of the most widespread invasive species of crayfish in Spain. The red swamp crayfish was introduced to some streams of the Montnegre Mountains in 1989. However, recent surveys conducted in the Olzinelles stream have not found P. clarkii, and this has been related to the absence of water.

It is through examples like these that we see how the consequences of climate change like its effects on water resources can affect biodiversity across the country.

Impacts on People

Economic Impact

Tourism

Although the scientific community has made significant progress in understanding the magnitude and regional variation of climate change in the upcoming decades, it is still challenging to estimate the economic costs of climate change. The difficulty in quantifying these costs mainly results from uncertainties regarding future climate change and economic projections, as well as the intricacies of connecting physical impacts to economic processes. One of the industries that may be strongly impacted by climate change is tourism, as many tourist activities are weather-dependent.

It’s been projected that the Tourist Climate Index (TCI) will change from the 1961-1990 period in which it was ‘excellent’ and ‘very good’ during summer (June-August), towards just ‘acceptable’ around Spain, and ‘good’ and ‘very good’ in the north of the country for the years 2051-2080.

Agriculture Impact

Climate change impacts are being observed globally, with certain regions that are already water scarce presenting higher levels of vulnerability. Spain, situated in the Mediterranean region, is anticipated to be highly vulnerable due to its uneven distribution of water resources availability and existing demands (Vargas-Amelin et al., 2014). As a result of its geographic and socio-economic characteristics, Spain is regarded as one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change in the European Union. Models forecast further increases in temperature and reductions in precipitation, which will likely have a profound impact on the region.

The agricultural sector, which contributes to climate change, is responsible for about 10% of GHG emissions in Spain, with livestock, particularly pig manure management, accounting for over half of the emissions, while crop systems accounted for the remainder. Moreover, desertification, which is one of the most significant impacts of climate change in Spain, poses a significant threat to a substantial portion of its territory. Over 30% of the area is already severely impacted by desertification, with human activity in arid regions exacerbating the situation. Causes of desertification include forest fires, loss of vegetation cover, erosion, and salinization processes. Climate change projections are expected to exacerbate these issues, particularly in regions with a dry and semi-arid Mediterranean climate.

While agriculture has shown its ability to adapt to changes in the long term, the magnitude of the changes due to climate change is likely to exceed the adaptive capacity of many European farmers. Therefore, climate change should be integrated into the overall objective of achieving sustainable agriculture, and synergies between adaptation and mitigation must be established, with no clear separation between them. The Spanish agriculture sector has already implemented several measures aimed at reducing emissions, improving knowledge about them, and introducing energy efficiency criteria in modernizing irrigation systems.

Climate change will have significant impacts on agriculture, ecosystems, and biodiversity, resulting in alterations to the territory's characteristics and accentuating the existing desertification issues in Spain. In addition to reduced water availability and the increased costs of adaptation measures, pests, invasive species, and reduced crop yields are foreseeable problems. At the same time, agriculture is responsible for a significant contribution to GHG emissions, and efforts are being made to address this problem while also recognizing its role as a carbon sink.

Health Impact

Rising temperatures, ozone levels, and fine dust concentrations, particularly in urban areas, have been found to increase the risk of death from various health conditions including ischaemic heart disease, stroke, metabolic disorders, and nephropathy, due to heat stress. This impact could disproportionately affect certain groups such as the elderly, children, pregnant women, and individuals with chronic illnesses.

Mitigation and Adaptation

Renewable Energy

The Institute for the Diversification and Saving of Energy (IDAE) is a public entity that since its origin has been in charge of the penetration of renewable energies. This organism was in charge of carrying out the National Renewable Energy Action Plan (RENAP) 2011-2020 with which the 2020 renewable energy objectives were achieved. Thus complying with the European Union directive to reach 20% of final consumption of renewable energy. In the same way, this organization is also currently in charge of outlining the plan to meet the new European target of reaching 27% renewable energy by 2030. This was a commitment made by the European Union at the Paris climate change conference in 2016 to limit the global temperature increase to 1.5ºC.

The support and promotion of renewable energies by Spain and the European Union has resulted in a reduction of costs in these technologies, especially solar and wind. This has turned them into competitive technologies and in some cases even cheaper than fossil fuels.

Spain is a country that has no hydrocarbon deposits, but on the contrary has a large number of hours of sunshine throughout the year. The contribution of renewable energies to the electricity generation mix has reached 50%. Spain has about 3000 hours of sunlight per year which makes it one of the sunniest countries in Europe and therefore a territory that has a great resource to produce electricity. The installed capacity of solar photovoltaic has tripled in the last five years reaching 22.1 GW.

Solar photovoltaic energy had a record generation in Spain in 2022, growing by 33% and becoming the fourth generation technology in the electricity mix. With a generation of 28,000 GWh, and an increase in installed capacity of 3.4 GW, it is the technology that has increased its production capacity the most. Another sector with strong growth is photovoltaic self-consumption, which grew by 108% in 2022 compared to 2021, with an installed capacity of 2,507 MW compared to 1,203 MW in 2021. Spain has an installed photovoltaic self-consumption capacity of 5,249 MW. This boom in photovoltaic self-consumption has been possible largely due to a progressive elimination of barriers and local incentives.

The leading solar thermal companies are also Spanish, having the largest installed capacity of solar thermal power in the world, with commercial operation in the four technologies currently available: tower, enclosed-parabolic trough, fresnel and dishes.

Spain is the second country in Europe in terms of wind energy generation and the fourth in terms of installed capacity 30.8 GW.

The world's leading renewable energy producer is Spanish and is also one of the five largest electricity companies in the world.

Control Centre of Renewable Energies (CECRE) is the world's leading renewable energy control centre, which is responsible for ensuring the integration of large shares of renewables into the electricity sector and markets. The integration of renewable energy presents multiple challenges due to its intermittency and in the case of Spain it also presents the problem of being an energy island, with a very small electricity interconnection with France which does not allow the exchange of energy with the rest of the European continent. The CECRE is the first national control centre in the world dedicated exclusively to monitoring and controlling renewable energy production and maximising its integration while at the same time guaranteeing the security of the electricity system.

A special case is the island of El Hierro, which is 100% renewable. It is a self-sufficient and sustainable island with a hybrid system of wind and hydro energy that covers the entire energy demand of the island. Using the surplus of wind energy in storage by means of hydroelectric power from the water.

Transportation

Transport is the sector with the highest energy consumption in Spain, accounting for 40.4% of final energy demand. Road transport accounts for 81.3% of transport energy demand, the vast majority of which is imported oil. This energy dependence accounted for some 40 billion euros in 2014, equivalent to 3.8% of GDP, with consequent problems for the environment and energy security.

In order to solve this problem, several policies have been established at national level, with a special focus on trucks, private cars and buses, which account for the largest share of road transport consumption.

The use of alternative fuels is one of the ways to address the negative impacts of transport.

Spain approved the Strategy Boosting Alternative Energy in 2015 and the National Action Framework for the development of the market and the infrastructures for alternative fuels in the transport sector in 2016. The approved measures are structured according to 3 priorities, infrastructure, market and industrialisation

Currently in Spain there are several factories that produce alternative fuels for vehicles, as well as companies that produce the necessary infrastructure equipment for recharging. Electric mobility on Spanish roads is currently less than 1%, although in recent years the number of electric vehicles has been increasing.

For the promotion of these electric vehicles and a more sustainable mobility, the Spanish government has promoted the MOVES III Plan. The budget allocated to this plan is 400 million euros, with the option to increase it to 800 million depending on demand, it is direct aid to electric mobility and charging infrastructure.

The beneficiaries of this aid can be individuals and companies that purchase an electric vehicle, a plug-in hybrid or an electric vehicle with a long range, provided that the price of the vehicle is less than €45,000. This aid for the purchase of electric vehicles can reach a maximum of 7000 €.

Regarding natural gas mobility, 90% of the vehicles using CNG are public buses. As for light vehicles, the use of CNG in taxis is increasing in some metropolitan areas.

Spain is the European leader in sustainable transport by train, with 3100 km of high speed train tracks, it is the most extensive high speed network in Europe, reaching a speed of 310 km/h, which makes it possible to connect the North and South of the country in 5 hours. The train is an efficient means of transport, as long as Spain's electricity mix is becoming more and more efficient.

Policies and Legislation

On 20 May 2021, the climate change and energy transition law passed by the government came into force. This law establishes to reach climate neutrality by 2050 at the latest.

In its article 3 this law establishes the long-term objective of decarbonising the economy by 2050 with a 100% renewable electricity system. In addition, the law establishes a series of shorter term objectives, such as reducing greenhouse gas emissions by at least 23% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels, achieving 42% renewable energy in final energy consumption and 74% renewable energy in electricity generation, as well as reducing primary energy consumption by 39.5% by improving energy efficiency.

This law prohibits authorisations for the exploration of areas that may contain hydrocarbons and their exploitation. Instead, in its article 12, the law establishes direct subsidies for biogas, biomethane, hydrogen and other renewable fuels.

By 2040 new commercial vehicles must all be zero emission and all municipalities with more than 50,000 inhabitants must implement their own plan by 2023 setting out concrete climate change mitigation measures.

Law 7/2021 on climate change and energy transition establishes 7 main objectives


 * Carbon neutrality by 2050
 * Reduce emissions by at least 55% by 2030, compared to 1990
 * Reduce GHG emissions 23% below 1990 levels for final energy.
 * Reduce GHG emissions by 55% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels in power generation.
 * Improve residential energy efficiency by 39.5%.
 * Renewable energies should account for 74% of the electricity mix by 2030
 * Renewable energies should account for 42% of final energy by 2030

Paris Agreement

Spain signed the Paris Agreement on 22 April 2016 and ratified it on 12 June 2017. Prior to this agreement, Spain also signed the Kyoto Protocol on 29 April 1998, which was ratified on 31 May 2002.

The last annual conference on climate change took place in Madrid in December 2019.

Next October, Spain, together with the IEA, will host the International Energy and Climate Summit. The aim is to build a great coalition to maintain the commitment reached in the Paris agreement to reduce the global temperature increase to below 1.5ºC.

This summit was announced by Teresa Ribera, Vice President of the Spanish Government and Faith Birol, International Executive Director of the International Energy Agency, on 2 October 2023 in Madrid.

According to the IEA, global Co2 emissions need to reach their maximum in 2025 to prevent global temperatures from rising by more than 1.5ºC. This event will be the verification of the Paris agreement and will be useful to provide global decision-making with the opportunity to send a signal of strength for our common future.

In the words of Faith Birol, the meeting in Madrid will be the moment for the world leaders of energy and climate to adopt a joint position and it is also the moment for all the interested parties to form a great coalition including governments, the energy industry, investors and civil society. This summit will serve to send the message that the 1.5ºC target reached in the Paris agreement is still possible.

Society and Culture

Public Awareness

Spanish society is more concerned about climate change than traditionally environmentalist countries such as Germany or Sweden. This is because the effects of climate change are being felt more in Spain than in central and northern European countries.

82% of people in Spain think that climate change is the biggest challenge for humanity in the 21st century. Furthermore, the majority of Spanish people (81%) believe that climate change has an impact on their lives, which is 4 points higher than Europeans in general (77%).

Spanish people also think that the measures taken by their government are too flexible and that they allow individuals and companies to avoid changing their behaviour. 58% of Spanish people therefore think that Spain will not succeed in reducing CO2 emissions, as set out in the Paris agreement.

A majority of Spanish people also believe that their country should rely more on renewable energies.

Among the most popular Spanish solutions against climate change is to educate and improve children's concern for sustainable consumption. Another measure that 75% of Spanish people agree with is the creation of a specific tax for those products and services that contribute the most to global warming.

They also agree to eliminate short-haul flights by using high-speed trains instead.

Activism

Climate movements in Spain are growing especially among the youth.

The fridays for future movement has become very popular in Spain. The first demonstration in Spain took place at the University of Girona and quickly spread to the rest of the country.

The slogan used by a wide range of civil society groups including climate activists, workers' unions and decent housing movements is that without sustainability there is no future and no social justice.

Spanish environmental activists have spoken out against plans to expand airports in Madrid and Barcelona. The organisers of the protests against these projects have united around a platform called Zeroport.

In 2019, half a million people took to the streets because of climate change problems.