User:Storm022/sandbox

A prolonged period of tornadic activity is unfolding in the Southern region of the United States. On May 1–3, tornadoes in the midwest damaged homes, downed powerlines, and damaged trees. One of these was an EF2 in Hermleigh, Texas that tore the roof off a house. On May 4, the Storm Prediction Center issued a moderate risk in anticipation for the event, as favorable conditions for severe weather positioned themselves over the Texas Panhandle and central and southern Oklahoma, where a 15%, hatched area for tornadoes, indicating the possibilities for strong tornadoes, was introduced on the morning of May 4. A large cluster of powerful supercell thunderstorms developed in the Panhandle and in Oklahoma, where multiple tornadoes have been reported. Destructive tornadoes occurred in the towns of Seminole, Oklahoma, Okemah, Oklahoma, and Lockett, Texas, with multiple other instances of damage being reported throughout the risk area.

The storm system responsible for the initial outbreak has moved on to the east on May 5, causing additional severe weather in east-central Texas, and southern Arkansas.

May 1
The Storm Prediction Center issued an enhanced risk of severe weather covering most of southwest Texas and a slight risk of severe weather for Virginia and North Carolina. The outlook also noted a five percent chance of tornadoes in most of western Texas and expanding in far-eastern New Mexico as well as 30% of damaging winds and significant hail. As the day progressed, scattered storms began to form across eastern New Mexico and southwestern Texas, some which turned severe while moving eastward.

May 4
As the previous' days events occurred, the Storm Prediction Center noted the possibilities for a more severe weather event to impact Texas and Oklahoma on May 4 with multiple days of anticipation. On May 2, the SPC issued a Day 3 enhanced risk, centering in the extreme western corner of the Texas Panhandle, and central Oklahoma. An upper-level low was expected to position itself over the Southern Plains, were 50 to 65 knot mid-level jet stream was expected to eject. As the conditions were favorable for the development of supercells, the SPC denoted a large area of a hatched 30% risk for severe weather in central Oklahoma, noting the elevated probabilities for strong damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes to occur.

The next day, the SPC maintained the enhanced risk for the same general areas in Texas and Oklahoma, while introducing small, hatched 10% risk for tornadoes, indicating the elevated possibilities for strong tornadoes to happen within supercells that could develop in the risk area. However, at 1730 UTC, the SPC issued a new, larger 10% hatched risk for tornadoes, as the kinematic measurements within the area in southern Oklahoma and extreme northern Texas kept improving. The report mentioned the elevated probabilities for discrete supercell structures to develop, enhancing the risk for tornado potential.

As the day of the event arrived, the SPC issued in their 1630 UTC Outlook a new moderate risk for severe weather, centered on extreme southwestern Oklahoma, and the western portions of the Texas Panhandle. As 3000-4000 J/kg CAPE values over the risk area were expected to position themselves over 60 F dew points, and a highly unstable atmosphere, the SPC introduced a 15%, hatched risk for tornadoes to occur in the moderate risk area, as the likelihood for isolated supercells kept improving. As the afternoon advanced, an even larger 15% hatched area for tornadoes was introduced, as the favorable environment for severe weather was expected to extend further into central Oklahoma, the Panhandle, and a large portion of northern Texas, near the Red River Valley.

As the storms began firing up in the Panhandle and central Oklahoma, a distinct cluster of powerful supercells developed, soon prompting the issuance of tornado warnings. A long-tracked supercell over central Oklahoma produced multiple tornadoes, with a large tornado causing considerable damage the town of Seminole. The same supercell would produce another damaging tornado, which affected areas of the town of Okemah. Multiple other supercells spawned over the risk area, moving from the Panhandle into Oklahoma, producing multiple tornadoes. One intense supercell in the Panhandle produced multiple photogenic tornadoes in Foard and Wilbarger counties, before producing a strong, long-tracked EF3 tornado that impacted the eastern portions of Lockett, Texas.

May 5
A tornado touched down in Rusk County, Texas, near an RV park in which several RVs were damaged, as well as a cabin. No fatalities were reported. 2 inch hail was reported in some storms.