User:Subasaur/Population ageing

Overview
Population aging is a shift in the distribution of a country's population towards older ages. This is usually reflected in an increase in the population's mean and median ages, a decline in the proportion of the population composed of children, and a rise in the proportion of the population composed of elderly. Population aging is widespread across the world. It is most advanced in the most highly developed countries, but it is growing faster in less developed regions, which means that older persons will be increasingly concentrated in the less developed regions of the world. The Oxford Institute of Population Ageing, however, concluded that population ageing has slowed considerably in Europe and will have the greatest future impact in Asia, especially as Asia is in stage five (very low birth rate and low death rate) of the demographic transition model.

Among the countries currently classified by the United Nations as more developed (with a total population of 1.2 billion in 2005), the overall median age rose from 28 in 1950 to 40 in 2010, and is forecast to rise to 44 by 2050. The corresponding figures for the world as a whole are 24 in 1950, 29 in 2010, and 36 in 2050. For the less developed regions, the median age will go from 26 in 2010 to 35 in 2050. The rise in median age is greatly attributed to the rapid growth of demographic populations ages 60 or older. Within the next 50 years, the percentage of those ages 60 or older will go from 10% to 22% and will triple to 30% by 2100.

Population ageing arises from two (possibly related) demographic effects which are increasing longevity and declining fertility. An increase in longevity raises the average age of the population by increasing the numbers of surviving older people. This is due to global government responses to improve life expectancy with the greatest rates seen in developed countries following World War II. Advancements in medical care, improved nutrition, and promotion of healthier lifestyle behavior all contributed to increases in longevity. A decline in fertility reduces the number of babies, and as the effect continues, the numbers of younger people in general also reduce. Of these two forces, it is declining fertility that is the largest contributor to population ageing in the world today. More specifically, it is the large decline in the overall fertility rate over the last half century that is primarily responsible for the population ageing in the world’s most developed countries. Because many developing countries are going through faster fertility transitions, they will experience even faster population ageing than the currently developed countries in the future.

Well-being and social policies
The economic effects of an aging population are considerable. Older people have higher accumulated savings per head than younger people, but spend less on consumer goods. Depending on the age ranges at which the changes occur, an aging population may thus result in lower interest rates and the economic benefits of lower inflation. Because elderly people are more inflation averse, countries with more elderly tend to exhibit lower inflation rates. Some economists (Japan) see advantages in such changes, notably the opportunity to progress automation and technological development without causing unemployment. They emphasize a shift from the impact of GDP to personal well-being.

However, population ageing also increases some categories of expenditure, including some funded from public finances. The largest area of expenditure in many countries is now health care, which already has been increasing as the populations age. The fiscal sustainability to address the rapid growth of ageing populations has presented governments with hard choices between higher taxes, including a possible reweighing of tax from earnings to consumption, and a reduced government role in providing health care. However, recent studies in some countries demonstrate the dramatic rising costs of health care are more attributable to rising drug and doctor costs, and higher use of diagnostic testing by all age groups, and not to the aging population as is often claimed. Other key drivers which has had a greater observable impact on increasing health expenditures include: increases in national income, development and use of medical technology, rising costs of medical services, and general population growth. In 2000, age-related expenditures were just under 19% of GDP but due to the increase in ageing populations, it is suspected to rise up to about 26% of GDP by 2050. The rise in median age is greatly attributed to the rapid growth of demographic populations ages 60 or older. Within the next 50 years, the percentage of those ages 60 or older will go from 10% to 22% and will triple to 30% by 2100.