User:Sylvia de Jonge/sandbox

In March 2018, Edinburgh became Scotland’s first city to implement a citywide network of streets with a 20mph limit.

2.2.1 there has been a statistically significant reduction in average speeds of - 1.34mph across the 66 speed survey locations where the limit was reduced; 2.2.2 the highest reduction in average speed (-2.41mph) was for sites in rural west Edinburgh; 2.2.3 findings reveal no evidence of displacement of traffic from 20mph streets to 30mph streets after implementation of the 20mph limit; 2.2.4 support for 20mph is increasing but concerns remain regarding compliance; and 2.2.5 casualties have fallen substantially since implementation, but it is not yet possible to ascribe reductions to the 20mph limit as opposed to an overall falling trend.

Responding to concerns about road safety, New York City passed a law called Vision Zero in 2014 that progressively decreased all local road speed limits to 25 miles per hour. This was in an effort to increase road safety from collisions. Starting a year prior to Vision Zero, the city started lowering speed limits in certain high-risk roads. Lower speed limits on some roads prior to 2014 that provides a quasi-experimental design. Casualties significantly decreased due to the program, but fatalities did not.

Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/),

20-mph legislation, signage, enforcement, and education and awareness-raising in Edinburgh (citywide) and Belfast (city centre) the overall percentage reduction in casualty rates was 39% (the overall percentage reduction in collision rates was 40%) in Edinburgh. The percentage reduction for each level of severity was 23% for fatal casualties, 33% for serious casualties and 37% for minor casualties. In Belfast there was a 2% reduction in casualties, reflecting differences in the size, reach and implementation of the two schemes, Liveability – for both cities, there was a small statistical increase in liveability. Speed – mean and median speeds reduced by 1.34 mph and 0.47 mph, respectively, at 12 months in Edinburgh, with no statistically significant changes in Belfast. The citywide approach adopted by Edinburgh was effective in reducing speeds and positively affected a range of public health outcomes. The city-centre approach in Belfast (where speeds were already low) was less effective. However, the main outcome of these schemes was a reduction in road casualties at all levels of severity.

Table 1: 20mph phase 1 trial areas Phase 1 trial area Local Authority Implementation date St Dogmaels Pembrokeshire 16 June 2021 St Brides Major Vale of Glamorgan 09 July 2021 Llanelli (North) Carmarthenshire 20 August 2021 Buckley Flintshire 28 February 2022 Cardiff (North) Cardiff 11 March 2022 Cilfrew Neath Port Talbot 16 March 2022 Abergavenny Monmouthshire 18 May 2022 Severnside (Caerwent, Caldicot, Magor, Undy) Monmouthshire 18 May 2022

Table 3: Traffic speed KPI assessments KPI KPI description Interim assessment (Nov 2022) 1.1 Percentage traffic compliance with the 20mph speed limit 64% travelling at or below 24mph (45% pre-implementation) 1.2 Change in 85th percentile speed 85th percentile speed reduced (- 2.5mph) 1.3 Change in mean speed Mean speed reduced (- 3.0mph)

Speed data recorded up to November 2022 shows mean speeds have reduced by an average of 3.0mph.

Over the remainder of the academic year, the proportion of journeys made by active travel increased at all schools. This is due to the incentive-based nature of WOW and the improving weather. However, the increase was greatest at schools within the phase 1 trial areas, with active travel use increasing from 49% of journeys to 74% of journeys to school. This is a 51% increase in journeys or a 25 percentage point increase in the mode share for active travel. At schools in control locations, active travel use increased from 49% of journeys to 67% of journeys to school. This is a 37% increase in journeys or an 18 percentage point increase in the mode share for active travel.

Table 14: KPI assessment summary KPI KPI description Interim assessment (Nov 2022) Change* 1.1 Percentage traffic compliance with the 20mph speed limit 64% travelling at or below 24mph (45% pre-implementation) ++ 1.2 Change in 85th percentile speed 85th percentile speed reduced (- 2.5mph) ++ 1.3 Change in mean speed Mean speed reduced (- 3.0mph) ++ 1.4 Vehicle journey times and journey time variation, based on the difference between the 5 th and 95th percentile journey times as a proxy for journey time reliability, on main through routes All traffic combined – minor changes in journey time variation, some positive and some negative. Marginal increase in journey times. Scheduled bus services – mixed, improved punctuality in some locations / worse in others. Too early to conclude. - 3.1 Change in attitude to active travel use in built-up areas 51% increase in active travel use on journeys to school in Phase 1 trial areas, compared to 37% increase in control locations. ++ 3.2 Change in vehicle/pedestrian yield behaviours Tentative conclusion – more vehicles slowing for pedestrians in trial areas + 4.1 Change in local air quality – NO 2 No material effect identified to date 0 - (slight negative), -- (large negative)
 * Change: ++ (large positive), + (slight positive), 0 (no discernible change),

Mean journey time increases, during the morning and afternoon peak periods on routes through the phase 1 trial areas, are minimal and generally not more than one minute.

Wales Omnibus Prepared for: Welsh Government. Prepared by: Beaufort Research. Welsh Government – Public Attitudes to 20mph. September 2022

Deputy Climate Change Minister Lee Waters has said three months before the introduction of the default 20mph speed limit.

Described as the ‘biggest step-change in community safety in a generation’, most streets in Wales that currently have a 30mph speed limit will switch to 20mph on Sunday, September 17.

The change comes after four years of work with local authorities, police and road safety experts to design a change in law, making Wales the first UK nation to reset the default speed limit for local roads.

The Deputy Minister with responsibility for transport said:

We’re now just three months away from the biggest step-change in community safety we have seen in Wales for a generation.

In Wales we do things differently, we look after each other and trust the science.

Evidence shows that a vehicle travelling at 30mph will still be travelling at 24mph in the time it would take a car travelling 20mph to stop.

Reducing speed not only saves lives; it will help build stronger, safer communities - better places to live our lives.

https://www.gov.wales/three-months-go-deputy-minister-says-20mph-switch-will-save-lives-and-build-stronger-communities

New data shows significant improvements in road safety in London since introduction of 20mph speed limits 13 February 2023 At sites monitored on the Transport for London Road Network (TLRN), collisions involving a vulnerable road user have decreased by 36 per cent, while collisions resulting in death or serious injury have decreased by 25 per cent after speed limits were lowered "It's brilliant to see the huge impact the introduction of 20mph speed limits has had on road safety around London. " Penny Rees TfL Head of Healthy Streets Investment

Lower speed limits play a critical role in the Mayor's Vision Zero plan to eliminate death and serious injury from the transport network People hit by a vehicle at 20mph are around five times less likely to be killed than at 30mph

Transport for London (TfL) has released new data that shows a significant reduction in the number of collisions since the implementation of 20mph speed limits on key roads in London. Lowering speed limits is a key part of the Mayor's Vision Zero goal to eliminate death and serious injury from London's transport network and to enable more walking and cycling in the capital.

Monitoring of the 20mph schemes in London shows that since they were introduced, the number of collisions has reduced by 25 per cent (from 406 to 304), and collisions resulting in death or serious injury have reduced by 25 per cent (from 94 to 71), demonstrating the huge impact of lowering speeds across London. Vulnerable road users continue to be most at risk on London's roads, but since the 20mph speed limits have been introduced, collisions involving vulnerable road users have decreased by 36 per cent (from 453 to 290), while collisions involving people walking have decreased by 63 per cent (from 124 to 46).

In March 2020, TfL introduced a 20mph speed limit on all of its roads within the central London Congestion Charging zone as part of its Vision Zero commitment to eliminate death and serious injury on the capital's roads by 2041. Currently over half of London's roads have a 20mph speed limit, of which almost 110km is on TfL's network. TfL is now working to lower speeds on 220km of its roads by 2024 in inner and outer London and plans to introduce a new 20mph speed limit on over 28km of roads in Camden, Islington, Hackney, Tower Hamlets and Haringey in March.

Collision data from around the world shows that the speed at which people are driving or riding is the single most important factor in whether a collision takes place and how severely people are injured. In 2020, speed was a contributing factor to 48 per cent of fatal collisions. Since the 20mph speed limits have been introduced across London, there have been reductions of 1.7-5mph across most sites surveyed. Analysis of journey times, traffic flows and speeds suggest that the 20mph speed limit has not increased congestion and TfL will be undertaking further quantitative analysis to assess the impact on smoothing traffic flows.

The new speed limits have also made a large portion of London safer for people to live, work and commute, encouraging more Londoners out of their cars to walk, cycle and use public transport. More people now use healthier and more sustainable forms of travel which is vital to reducing congestion and air pollution.

Amongst the findings were a continued drop in speeds, with overall average speed down from 23.77mph in 2016, before the 20mph roll-out, to 21.92mph in 2021 across the 65 streets surveyed, with the fastest drivers reducing their speeds most. This is a further reduction on 2019’s average speeds of 22.69mph, with an overall reduction of 1.85mph. The proportion of streets surveyed with average speeds of 20mph or less had also increased from 25% to 37% in 2021. https://www.edinburgh.gov.uk/news/article/13522/speeds-continue-to-drop-across-20mph-network

Findings The magnitude of the results of individual studies varies, both within countries and between them. However, there is enough commonality to draw the following findings, based on the UK and six European case studies. • 20 mph limits without physical measures result in modest speed reductions – typically 1-2 mph where before speeds are approximately 25 mph, and reductions of 3-5 mph where before speeds are approximately 30 mph. • 20 mph limits without physical measures result in approximately 11% fewer casualties than before in the UK. • For the European case studies, there were approximately 18% fewer casualties after 30 km/h limits were introduced but this figure was for all schemes, including some with physical measures. There were too few studies of sign only schemes to provide an average. • Some 20 mph limits would have been accompanied by other measures, such as cycling infrastructure which might have contributed to any casualty reductions. • Compliance with 20 mph limits without physical measures is poor. • 20 mph limits with physical measures have substantially greater speed and casualty reduction effects than those without.

12 • When asked24 in 2020 about Welsh Government plans to reduce the speed limit to 20mph in residential communities, 80 percent of survey respondents responded in favour of the proposal. However, the summary of responses to the public consultation that ran in 202125 found only 47% of 6,000 responses in favour of the proposal. The difference is likely to be the result of the different sampling approaches for each survey – the 2020 opinion survey sample was structured to be representative of the general population, while the sample for the public consultation in 2021 was self-selecting. • Since 2006 the National Travel Survey26 has found a significant majority of the adult population in England is in favour of 20mph limits on residential streets. Over the period 2006-2019 those responding in favour has fluctuated between 75 and 69 percent, with only 10 percent of respondents opposed to 20mph limits in 2019. • Research27 commissioned by the UK government on 20mph speed limits concluded 20mph limits are supported by the majority of residents and drivers. • The General Assembly of the United Nations and World Health Organisation28 endorse 20mph or 30km/h speed limits where people mix with motor vehicles, unless strong evidence exists that higher speeds are safe. 2.2.3 Precedents • 20mph speeds limits are becoming increasingly widespread in residential areas in the UK. • Nearly half29 of all Local Authorities by population have implemented some wide area 20mph zones, ranging from shire counties to unitary authorities and metropolitan boroughs. In England 20 million people live in such authorities. • Several towns have adopted a “Total 20” approach which sets 20mph as the default mandatory speed limit for all residential roads (with certain exceptions) without the cost or complexity of physical calming. This approach sets a new “societal norm” for vehicle speeds. Portsmouth was the first town in the UK to introduce this in 2007. This has been followed by wide area implementations in Oxford, Bristol, Warrington, London Borough of Islington and latterly Lancashire County Council • A recent and highly relevant precedent is the Scottish Borders30 which approved 20mph limits across towns and villages in the region in 2021 following a trial period in 2020. The trial found that there was a successful reduction in speed and that 20mph limits are cost effective in lowering traffic speeds and flow, increasing active travel, and reducing casualties. Looking at 115 sites, the Scottish Borders trial mainly focused on how 20mph speed limit can affect driver behaviour. The study found a decrease in mean speed of just over 3mph31, with the majority of vehicles travelling more slowly. The reduction in speed, and therefore the expected casualty savings, increased in line with the ‘before’ speed. As a result of the trial within the Scottish Borders, the Scottish Government is now committed32 to expanding 20mph limits to support active travel and to align with global best practice. 24 Traffic Orders & 20mph Public Attitudes Survey. November 2020 Wales Omnibus Study. Beaufort Research. 25 See: https://gov.wales/proposal-reduce-speed-limit-20mph-residential-streets-summary-responses-html 26See: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/810908/national-travel- attitudes-study-2019-wave-1.pdf 27See: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/757307/20mph-headline- report.pdf 28 See: https://www.who.int/news/item/22-03-2021-campaign-launched-to-make-30-km-h-streets-the-norm-for-cities-worldwide 29 See: https://www.20splenty.org/20mph_a_blueprint 30 See: https://scottishborders.moderngov.co.uk/documents/s61106/Item%20No.%2012%20-%2020mph%20report%20Council%20- %20Dec%202021.pdf 31 See: https://www.scotborders.gov.uk/news/article/4202/permanent_20mph_plans_approved 32 See: https://www.gov.scot/publications/scottish-government-and-scottish-green-party-shared-policy-programme/pages/responding-to- the-climate-emergency/

Do Welsh voters support or oppose the new 20mph speed limit on roads where cars mix with pedestrians and cyclists? (16-17 September) Support 46% Oppose 34%

Spain changed the speed limit on the majority of its roads to 30km/h in 2019. There will be some fears beforehand but our experience and the experience of other cities across the world is that once it is done things become normal quickly.

Lee Waters "And if you have to put a monetary value on human life we should remember the average cost of a police reported fatality collision in Great Britain is £2.3 million (using 2021 prices) and in Wales there were 28 fatality collisions on 30 mph roads in 2022." https://amanwy.blogspot.com/2023/09/how-much-is-life-worth.html

A new analysis of traffic data, released one week after Wales introduced a default 20mph speed limit, has revealed what researchers described as an “astonishing” impact on traffic speeds across the nation.

The data compiled by transport safety specialists Agilysis explored the impact of the new speed limit on traffic speeds over hundreds of miles of roads in Wales.

The headline statistics show a 2.9 mph drop in speeds on the surveyed roads, averaging 19.77 mph compared to 22.67 mph the week before the change.

The data and subsequent analysis used traffic information along main routes in ten towns and cities in Wales, totalling 261 miles in length in the period one week before and one week after the switch.

The independent research used GPS data provided by TomTom, which allows for a rapid analysis of traffic data within 24 hours.

The sample used over 25 million vehicle movements on the Monday-Friday, 6am-6pm periods in the two weeks either side of the change. The full report included figures showing changes in each of the ten towns, the change in speed profiles along all roads, and a sample impact analysis for journey times.

The report concludes that the drop in average speeds “should provide incredible safety benefits to pedestrians and cyclists as well as an expected improvement in air quality to all residents and road users”.

The roads included in the survey are in Cardiff, Newport, Swansea, Wrexham, Rhyl / Prestatyn, Merthyr Tydfil, Lampeter, Bangor, Haverfordwest and Newtown.

Sample analysis of two routes has indicated a journey time increase of between 45-63 seconds along the two 2.5km routes in Cardiff and Wrexham.