User:Tarjome3001/sandbox

Purpose
Purpose: Coping water scarcity and food production in Iran require some appropriate Futures Studies (FS) paradigm. Integral Futures Studies (IFS) is applied and examined for studying the futures of water supply for food production in I. R. of Iran. Methods: Virtual workshop, as a web based foresight procedure, is developed and implemented according to IFS circumstances for a future based structured social dialogue, among Iranian stakeholders. The first phase of the foresight procedure (pre-foresight) lasted 6 months, 105 national stakeholders were registered to take part in online discussions, surveys, and workshops, and to share their ideas and opinions on future agendas and trends. During this phase, the objective and subjective parts of the knowledge on shaping the future were integrated into one system. Finally 36 volunteers evaluated the pre-foresight. Results: IWRM and AM are some global approaches to solve the water allocation challenges at watershed or national levels. Under such circumstances future studies needs to bring closer divergent views, promote understandings, and interests; strengthen their consensus on the future interests and benefits of the nation, and renew their commitment to the preservation and management of water resources. So IFS could regard as a more suitable paradigm through coping water challenges for food production at national level. Behind some special results, procedure results (5C) of this study were examined. The percentages of participants consensus on the effectiveness of the examined issues were as follows: 1) Promoting thinking about the future (91%); 2) Clarifying the effective factors (88%); 3) Promoting thinking systematically (91%); 4) Forming new networks and communications (78%); 5) Promoting social learning about the subject of the study (89%); 6) Promoting cooperation among the participants (72%); and 7) Promoting consensus among the relevant stakeholders (75%). Conclusion: Finally, virtual workshop as a web based procedure and according to IFS circumstances, could promote a deep and continual structured and future oriented dialogue among the relevant stakeholders across the country for coping water challenges for food production at national level.

== Introduction == notwithstanding other water consumptions, a human being drink, on average, 2 to 4 liters of water daily, while he consumes 2000 to 5000 liters of virtual water (United Nation, 2014). By definition, virtual water is the wa¬ter embedded in a product; i.e. the amount of water consumed to produce that product (Renault, 2003). As depicted in Figure 1, agricultural water consumption in Iran and neighboring countries is greater than urban and industrial water consumptions. Of course, the proportions of municipal, industrial, and agricultural water withdraw¬als vary from country to country, due to different climatic conditions, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, quality of water supply infrastructures, water allocation, water con¬sumption, and other socioeconomic factors. Along with cli¬matic changes, population growth, and increase in demand for biofuel by 2025, the global demand for corps is expected to increase by 46% (65% in the developing countries); but the existing water resources will limit the further expansion of irrigated agriculture. Under such conditions, the farm¬ers should produce more food for millions of people who will be added to the world population; while, there will be almost no new economical water resources available to the farmers (Hanjra & Qureshi, 2010). According to the International Water Management In¬stitute, in 1950, twelve countries with a total population of 20 million faced water shortage; while, in 1990, this number increased to 26 countries with a total population of 300 million. It is predicted that 65 countries with a total population of over 7 billion will face water shortage by 2050. Moreover, around 1960, most countries were self-sufficient in food production; however, by 2025, a major¬ity of these countries will not be major crop producers. Among the 183 countries of the world, only USA and Can¬ada are now the main crop exporters; however, because of the population growth in USA, its crop export capacity is expected to diminish in the next 25 years. In other words, the surplus of food products that could be supplied to the world markets shrink, while the