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What kind of obstacles India may face to win Lithium War against other exporting countries,

On February 9 this year, the Geological Survey of India confirmed that an estimated 5.9 million tonnes of Lithium resources (G3) have been established in the Salal-Haimana area of Reasi district in Jammu and Kashmir, which will reduce India's dependence on lithium imports.

The discovery is strategically important for India as it will go a long way in addressing the shortage of lithium and will help India’s efforts to move towards net zero emission target by 2070. Now India  will become the seventh largest resource of lithium globally, though it will take time to convert it into reserves.

What is Lithium and where is it used?,

Lithium is a soft, shiny grey non-ferrous metal found in the earth’s crust. It is a highly reactive and alkaline metal.

It is one of the key components in electric vehicle (EV) batteries. It is about half as dense as water and, in its pure, elemental form, is a soft, silvery-white metal. Being highly reactive, it is never found naturally as a metal. Scientists have suggested that this is a cosmic element that formed from the bright stellar explosions called novae.

It is a core component in batteries, which the electrification of the world depends heavily on. Lithium is needed as a core material for Lithium-ion batteries, which are often used in electric cars and for storing energy from renewable energy generators such as solar and wind. Most cars and all vehicles in the future are projected to operate entirely on batteries, for which lithium is an essential component.

Lithium is also added to glass and ceramics for strengthening, alloyed with aluminium and copper to save weight in airframe structures, and used in certain psychiatric medications.

In addition, it is increasingly in demand as an integral part of smartphones, advanced computers, and airplanes, making it a vital energy resource for ambitious governments and corporate empires.

Due to its utility in diverse applications, it is also referred to as ‘White Gold’.

Obstacles before India to win the Lithium war against other exporting countries,

As the world rapidly transitions from fossil fuels to electrification and advanced batteries, China is already a frontrunner in the geopolitical race to dominate the international lithium trade.

In the last about 32 years, China has come a long way in terms of production. China makes 4 out of 10 Lithium batteries used in the world today; with a target to manufacture  40 percent of electric cars by 2030.

Today, China alone is produces 77 percent of imported lithium's batteries. More than half of lithium, cobalt and graphite processing and refining capacity is located in China.

While Europe accounts for more than one-quarter of global EV assembly, it accounts for very little of the supply chain, apart from cobalt processing at 20%.

The United States has an even smaller role (with only 10% of EV production and 7% of battery production capacity).

Most of the minerals are mined in resource-rich countries such as Australia, Chile and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and handled by a few major companies. Governments in Europe and the United States have undertaken bold public sector initiatives to develop domestic battery supply chains.

Among all these figures, India imports lithium from China and Hong Kong, of which it is dependent on China for 80 per cent.

India currently imports all lithium and lithium-ion batteries, mainly from China, Hong Kong, Indonesia and Vietnam and spent over Rs 26,700 crore on these imports from 2018-19 to 2020-21, according to department of commerce data.

In which, in 2018-19, 2019-20, and 2020-21, China’s share in India’s overall import of lithium batteries was 19.8%, 20.7%, and 32%, respectively. In 2018-19, China accounted for 81% of India’s imports. Though slightly down, China’s share in 2019-20 and 2020-21 remained at 68.2% and 72.7%, respectively.

So far India was one of the largest importers of Lithium from China. So China had a de facto monopoly in exporting Lithium-ion batteries to India.

In such a situation, this discovery of 5.9 million tonnes of Lithium resources can prove to be a geopolitical game changer for India.

However, there is another twist in the story.

Energy experts and people in the EV sector believe that the lithium reserves will provide a major boost to India’s energy transition and also will potentially allow India to compete with Bolivia (21 million tonnes) and Chile (8 million tonnes), and Australia (2.7 million tonnes), Argentina (2 million tonnes) and most importantly China (1 million tons).

Although the GSI has inferred an estimate of 5.9 million tonnes of lithium deposits, scientists said- if verified, would make it the world’s second-largest reserve after Chile’s 8 million tonnes, the estimate was based on early-stage prospecting  the so-called G3 stage of mineral resource assessment that identifies areas with possible reserves but does not provide clear estimates of how much of the reserves are economically viable.

But the announcement has evoked excitement among sections of energy researchers who say even half of the estimated 5.9 million tonnes would be a significant abundance of this strategic economic metal.

An IISD study found that access to critical elements such as lithium is a key challenge faced by companies investing in India's EV ecosystem, while in-house and international companies will have to wait for 6 more years.

Natural resources experts have warned that it could take at least a decade for India to access the new reserves. For example, the presence of 1,600 tonnes of lithium resources in the Mandya district of Karnataka, with no reports of resource mining to date.

Other hidden risks related with lithium reserves in India,

The finding of Lithium Reserve in India has great strategic importance. It can reduce India’s dependence on Imports and make India self-reliant as it transitions to Green Mobility, but it also creates several  challenges before the nation. Let’s discuss….

Does India have a proper technology for lithium mining?,

India lacks technology to extract lithium and purify it. Lithium is mixed with rocks and other minerals. It requires breaking the rocks, removing volatile chemicals with evaporation and magnetic impurities with magnets besides other chemicals and processing.

India has no prior experience in extracting Lithium, nor has it tested domestic technology. There is also a lack of an established Lithium extraction industry.

Natural resource experts warn it could take at least a decade for India to access the new reserves. India currently lacks the technology to excavate and produce lithium.

It is also claimed that over the last four decades, sufficient research has not been performed to address the sustainability difficulties posed by lithium mining and processing, particularly the question of its impacts on local populations.

What about local environmental and earthquake sensitivities?

This lithium reserve  is located in Salal-Haimana area of Reasi district of Jammu and Kashmir. It is placed in seismic zone IV as per Indian Seismic Zoning Map, which means it is located in a high damage risk zone. The district has experienced several low-intensity earthquakes last year, and is also part of the famous Kashmir seismic gap, where scientists have already predicted earthquakes of more than 8 points on the Richter scale.

In addition to being prone to major earthquakes, the region is vulnerable to landslides, which often result in loss of life, which means that mining can have devastating  effects in geologically and ecologically sensitive areas.

At the same time, Kashmiri environmentalists are focusing more on how lithium extraction will affect the ecology of the natural Himalayan region. A report published by The Nature Conservancy, an environmental organization, states that proven techniques for lithium extraction require large amounts of land and can result in the removal of native vegetation.

This mining will also have many effects on agricultural production, especially when the sector is already highly vulnerable to climate change. As well as the mining process is extremely water-intensive, and also contaminates the land and the water supplies if not done in a sustainable method.

Second, where will the wildlife like leopard, panther, Himalayan black bear, fox, wild goat and wild cow live in the regional forest?.

Will this discovery lead to regional human displacement and damage to the region's fragile ecology?

The Indian government is planning to hold an auction for the reserves in early June, with the caveat that refined lithium can only be processed within India, which will certainly boost India's domestic production, along with the expectations of a job with a good salary offer.

However, residents of Jammu and Kashmir's south-west Reasi district say they fear being evicted from their land because of  these mining operations. If mining is not done properly, the surrounding communities will have to leave their homes and move to urban areas.

GSI said the site is an "inferred resource" of the metal, which means it is at a preliminary exploration stage, the second of a four-step process.

Reports indicate that approximately 2.2 million litres of water are needed to produce one tonne of lithium. Further, mining in the unstable Himalayan terrain is fraught with risks.

In addition to this, lithium extraction requires significant water resources and generates polluting emissions. The lithium is also located in an ecologically fragile region. Natural resource extraction has fueled anger in other local communities, contributing to conflict in parts of eastern India.

Although Reasi isn’t as volatile as the Kashmir valley, it has seen anti-government violence in the past. Under such circumstances, neighboring Pakistan could exploit local resistance to lithium extraction to draw global attention to what it sees as India’s repressive rule over Kashmir.

All and all, India boasts of a more powerful economy and EV supply system in the future after the discovery of Lithium. At the same time, committed to a full-scale energy transition, and battling intense competition with China.

But even with a strong will, capacity constraints and other challenges mean India has a long way to go before it can capitalize on the lithium boon.