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= 2024 Scottish government crisis =

In April 2024 Humza Yousaf, first minister of Scotland and leader of the Scottish National Party (SNP), faced a confidence crisis following his termination of the Bute House Agreement, a power-sharing agreement between the SNP and the Scottish Greens, which had previously allowed his party to govern.

The agreement was formed following the 2021 Scottish Parliament election in which the SNP, led by Nicola Sturgeon, fell one seat short of an overall majority: it detailed a shared policy programme between the parties, areas of collaboration and disagreement, and Patrick Harvie and Lorna Slater, the co-leaders of the Greens, were appointed ministers. Initially popular with the SNP membership, dissatisfaction grew within the parliamentary party on the agreement and the Greens' position in government; in September 2023 Fergus Ewing was suspended from the party for voting against Slater in a confidence motion. Following the wellbeing economy secretary Màiri McAllan's announcement in April 2024 that the governmentthen led by Yousafwere to change key climate change targets the Greens scheduled a vote on whether to remain in the agreement. On 25 April, before the vote was due to take place, Yousaf terminated the agreement and announced his intention to govern as a minority: Harvie and Slater's ministerial posts were abolished and his first government dissolved.

At First Minister's Questions in the afternoon the Scottish Conservatives announced that they would table a vote of no confidence in Yousaf; the following day Scottish Labour said that they would table a different motion, this time in the entire government. The Greens stated that all seven of their MSPs would vote against Yousaf in the Conservative motion: this meant that if all non-SNP MSPs voted against Yousaf the vote would be successful. Ash Regan, the sole MSP from the pro-independence Alba Party and who had defected from the SNP the year prior, held the unofficial casting vote: if she backed the government the vote would be tied at 64–64, and the impartial presiding officer would have voted, by convention in favour of the government; if she voted against it, the motion would have been successful at 63–65. Regan sent a list of requests to Yousaf in order to gain her support while he contacted party leaders for talks at Bute House, which were rejected by the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats and Greens. On 29 April Yousaf announced his resignation, saying he was not willing to trade his principles to remain in power. Following the announcement the Labour motion, scheduled for 1 May, went ahead: it was defeated with the help of Green MSPs.

Bute House Agreement


The Scottish electoral system is designed to make majority government difficult to achieve for any single party. The first election to the Scottish Parliament, held in 1999 following its establishment, resulted in it being hung: Scottish Labour and the Scottish Liberal Democrats formed a coalition, with two Lib Dems becoming cabinet members. The 2003 election saw the LabourLib Dem coalition returned, although by a finer margin than before. In 2007 the Scottish National Party (SNP) became the largest party, forming a minority government; this was followed by the party unexpectedly winning an outright majority in 2011, but was reduced to minority status again in 2016.

The 2021 election in May left the SNP, then led by Nicola Sturgeon, on 64 seats: one short of an overall majority. In August, following several months of negotiation, a deal was struck between the government and the similarly pro-independence Scottish Greens. The latter agreed to support the SNP on confidence votes and budgets and the two co-leaders of the GreensPatrick Harvie and Lorna Slaterwere appointed ministers, becoming the first Green politicians to enter government in the UK. The parties committed to a shared policy programme, including classifying 10 per cent of sea area in Scotland as Highly Protected Marine Areas (HPMAs), creating 110,000 "affordable" homes, investment in renewable heating, increased focus on public transportation, and the holding of a second independence referendum within five years, following on from the one held in 2014. Areas of collaboration between the SNP and the Greens included issues such as climate change, post-COVID economic recovery, the constitution, child poverty, energy and the environment. The agreement also stipulated policy areas which the Greens were allowed to differ from and criticise the SNP, including on aviation, defence, NATO membership of an independent Scotland, relations with other countries, private education and foxhunting.

In February 2023 Sturgeon announced her resignation as first minister of Scotland. Three people declared their intention to stand in the ensuing leadership contest: Humza Yousaf, the health secretary, Ash Regan, a former community safety minister, and Kate Forbes, the finance secretary. During the campaign Forbes and Regan both publicly spoke out in opposition to the agreement, whereas Yousaf supported its continuation. He won the leadership on 27 March, narrowly beating out Forbes after Regan was eliminated on the first round. Following Yousaf's election the Greens decided to stay in the agreement, which would have very likely ended if Forbes or Regan had led the government instead.

Policy friction


The co-operation deal was initially popular within the SNP, with around 95 per cent of the party membership voting in favour of it.

Following COP26 in Glasgow Slater announced that the proposed deposit return scheme (DRS) was to be delayed, now being set to be launch in August 2023; in April 2023 Yousaf announced it would be delayed further to March 2024; and following a dispute with the British government over the Internal Market Act 2020 Slater announced in June 2023 it was to be pushed back to October 2025. By July 2023 £86 million had been spent on the scheme. This led the Scottish Conservatives to table a motion of no confidence in Slater on 20 June. The motion failed but Fergus Ewing, an SNP MSP, voted in favour. The parliamentary SNP voted in September to suspend him, which was successful by 48 votes to 9, coming into effect in February 2024. Ewing had been an outspoken critic of the agreement, the SNP leadership and many Green-driven policies. In particular, he attacked the Green plans for HPMAs and the failure of the government to dual the A9, blaming it on Green opposition to roadbuilding. The HMPA policywhich would have banned commercial and recreational fishing in designated areaswas scrapped in June 2023 following anger from fishing communities and organisations over potential job losses and impact on fishers. Forbes, who represents a Highland constituency, warned of the "hugely devastating" effect the scheme would have on the Highlands and Islands; she was joined in her criticism by Alasdair Allan and Karen Adam.

In April Yousaf said a vote for the Greens at the next general election would be a "wasted vote".



In January 2023 the secretary of state for Scotland Alister Jack had blocked the gender recognition reform bill (GRR) from receiving royal assent under section 35 of the Scotland Act 1998 for conflicting with UK-wide legislation. The action was ruled lawful in December following a Scottish government court challenge launched by Yousaf. The bill was controversial within the SNP: in 2022 Regan had resigned from the government in protest at the reforms; seven SNP MSPs voted against the bill in the party's largest ever parliamentary rebellion; and in October the following year Regan defected to the Alba Party in opposition to the SNP's position on gender and attitude towards independence. The Greens, on the other hand, had championed the reforms: during the leadership contestin which Forbes and Regan were hostile to the plansHarvie had stated that the Greens would end the agreement if the new leader did not share his party's "progressive values". The Greens "urg[ed]" Yousaf to appeal the ruling, whilst several SNP politicians deemed the bill "politically toxic" and opposed further action. The April 2024 publication of the Cass Review into gender services for children was a further strain on the parties' relationship: the SNP backed the report whilst Harvie refused to accept its findings, with the SNP MSP Michelle Thomson accusing him of "science denialism". The Sandyford clinic in Glasgow paused the prescription of puberty blockers to children after the report's publication, causing the Greens' LGBT wing to question the deal's future. Following the breakup of the agreement, in May the Greens were the only party to vote against a parliamentary motion to endorse the review.

Green vote and termination


On 18 April the cabinet secretary for wellbeing economy, net zero and energy, Màiri McAllan...

Sources: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

At 7:00pm on 24 April Yousaf told his advisers, senior party members and members of his private office that the agreement was to end. At 7:50am the following day Slater and Harvie arrived for a meeting at Bute House, where they were told of the deal's termination and that they were to be removed as ministers: the pair then left the building and travelled to Parliament without a ministerial car. A cabinet meeting followed at 8:30am in which government ministers agreed to the decision. At a press conference at 10:00am Yousaf confirmed the ending of the deal, saying that "the agreement was intended to provide stability to Scottish government, and it has made possible a number of achievements, but it has served its purpose".

Events following
First Minister's Questions occurs in the Scottish Parliament each Thursday for 45 minutes, beginning at noon.

Resignation
At 11:00 pm on 28 April The Times reported that Yousaf was planning to announce his resignation the following day and had informed senior party members of his intentions. The following morning Bute House confirmed that a press conference was to occur at noon and that the first minister would make a statement on his future. As expected Yousaf announced his resignation at the conference.

Aftermath
The Conservatives withdrew their motion, with Ross saying that had "achieved its purpose". Labour announced that their motion would still go ahead, which the Greens criticised as unnecessary and "parliamentary game playing". On 1 May it was defeated with the help of Green MSPs; Regan, however, voted in favour of it.

Nominations for the ensuing leadership election opened at 11:59 pm on the 29th and were to close at noon on 6 May. It was expected that Forbes would stand again. John Swinney, Sturgeon's government deputy, said that he was considering a bid when questioned shortly after Yousaf's resignation speech. On 2 May he declared his candidacy in Edinburgh and said that Forbes would be welcomed into a government he would lead; shortly afterwards she announced that she would not stand, endorsing Swinney. Graeme McCormick, an SNP activist, stated on the 5th that he had secured enough nominations from party members to stand, but after talks with Swinney that afternoon he decided that he would not seek the leadership. With no other candidates declaring, Swinney was announced as leader shortly after noon the following day.

Yousaf tendered his resignation to the King on 7 May. Swinney became Parliament's nominee for first minister that afternoon with 64 votes: 63 SNP MSPs plus Regan. The Greens abstained, with Slater saying that the government did not have an "automatic right to our votes". He was sworn in as first minister on the 8th at the Court of Session. His minority government remained largely unchanged from Yousaf's: Forbes was given the role of deputy first minister as well as responsibility for the economy and the Gaelic language; Shona RobisonYousaf's deputyretained her role as finance secretary with increased responsibility for local government; McAllan kept her position but lost responsibility of the economy; the position of minister for independence, created by Yousaf, was abolished; and the number of junior ministerial positions was slightly reduced.

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= 2024 Welsh government crisis =

Welsh Labour–Plaid Cymru agreement
Elections to the Senedd, similarly to its Scottish counterpart, use a system which makes it difficult for any party to achieve an overall majority of seats, meaning governments often form coalitions, deal with other parties or govern in minority. In the post-war era the Labour Party had traditionally dominated Welsh politics and despite the devolved electoral system were widely anticipated to win a majority upon the parliament's establishment. In the first National Assembly election, however, Labour fell short of the required 31 seats because of a surge in support for the nationalist Plaid Cymru; this was termed a daergryn tawel ("quiet earthquake") by the leader of the latter, Dafydd Wigley. At the following election in 2003 Plaid lost five of its seats and Labour (now Welsh Labour) increased its tally to 30: half of the chamber, and decided to govern as a minority, ending the coalition with the Liberal Democrats formed in 2000. 2007 saw Labour drop to 26 seats with an increase in Plaid support, and, following failed negotiations for a rainbow coalition with Plaid, the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats, a coalition government was agreed between Labour and Plaid. In 2011 Labour returned 30 seats and once again governed alone. The party dropped one seat in 2016; Labour formed a government with the remaining Liberal Democrat assembly member and a former Plaid leader who had decided to sit as an independent.

In the 2021 Senedd election Labour increased its seat count by onewinning 30 seatsperforming more strongly than the opinion polls had predicted; this was attributed by analysts in part to the handling of the pandemic by the first minister, Mark Drakeford. The result was described by several academics as "disappointing" for Plaid and the Liberal Democrats, with the former's vote share almost unchanged and the latter having lost its sole constituency, only managing to take the last of the list seats in the Mid and West region, having, in the political scientist Roger Awan-Scully's phrase, "clung onto political life".

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