User:Tomruen/PeakOil

This is a subpage made to collect my information about Peak Oil and Hubbert's curve of oil production.

If I can get something worthy, I'll consider connecting up to the existing articles. Hopefully no one will mind if I hide this article for a time while I organize my materials.

Existing articles:
 * Hubbert's_Peak
 * Energy_crisis

Peak oil and Hubbert's curve
Peak oil means that oil production has reached an all time high, and will only decline after that point in time.

The theory starting by saying oil production in a single well has a bell-shaped curved. It is a theoretical ideal that may not be matched for a given actual well. It is still "approximately accurate" given a point of discovery when production was zero, and a point of final depletion where the production will again be zero. In between economics and political realities could have multiple peaks, or a long plateau is possible.

The general idea from Hubbert is that when approximately half the oil that will ever be extracted is reached, peak production will be close to that point in time.

Beyond a single well, production can be added for all the wells within a given region, and ultimately the entire world.

In 1956 Hubbert applied these ideas, using past production for the U.S. 48 states, and predicted production would peak in 1970, and this prediction was confirmed a few years after 1970 when US-48 production did decrease - never to recover.

U.S. dependency on oil imports
The energy crises of 1975 and 1980 sent prices skyrocketing, and domestic oil production responded with development, but higher prices did not last and oil prices fell generally during the period of 1986-1999.
 * http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/OILPRICE/98/Max

Lower prices during this period has encouraged increase oil consumption in both the U.S. and world:
 * http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/publications/energy_reviews/STAGING/local_assets/downloads/pdf/oil_section_2004.pdf

As of 2004, the U.S. consumes over 20 million barrels of oil/day, and close to 25% of world consumption of over 80 million barrels.

The U.S production has decreased from 8.5 million barrels/day in 1993 to 7.4 million barrels/day in 2003. In the same period our oil consumption increased from 17 million barrels/day to 20 million barrels per day.

Thus 2003 had 63% of our oil consumption come from imports:

Where do we import our oil?
According to: (2002)
 * http://www.eere.energy.gov/vehiclesandfuels/facts/favorites/fcvt_fotw246.shtml

Our top importers were:
 * 1) Canada 1.9 mb/day
 * 2) Saudi Arabia 1.5 mb/day (OPEC)
 * 3) Mexico 1.5 mb/day
 * 4) Venezuela 1.4 mb/day (OPEC)
 * 5) Nigeria 0.6 mb/day (OPEC)
 * 6) Iraq 0.52 mb/day (OPEC)
 * 7) U.K. 0.46 mb/day
 * 8) Norway 0.41 mb/day
 * 9) Angola 0.33 mb/day
 * 10) Algeria 0.28 mb/day
 * +) Others 2.414 mb/day
 * Total 11.3 mb/day

And to: (2003)
 * http://www.eia.doe.gov/neic/rankings/crudebycountry.htm


 * Rank Country of Origin Million Barrels/day
 * 1 Saudi Arabia 1.726
 * 2 Mexico 1.569
 * 3 Canada 1.549
 * 4 Venezuela  1.183
 * 5 Nigeria 0.832
 * 6 Iraq 0.481
 * 7 Angola 0.363
 * 8 United Kingdom  0.359
 * 9 Kuwait 0.208
 * 10 Norway 0.181
 * Total 9.665 mb/day
 * Total 9.665 mb/day

And to: (2004)
 * http://peakoil.net/Newsletter/NL51/newsletter51.doc


 * Canada	1.6 Mb/d
 * Mexico	1.6
 * S.Arabia	1.5
 * Venezuela	1.3
 * Nigeria	1.1
 * Iraq	0.7
 * Angola	0.3
 * UK	0.3
 * Algeria	0.2
 * Kuwait	0.2
 * TOTALS imports: 12.0 mb/day

Looking at "reserves":
 * http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/natural_gas/data_publications/crude_oil_natural_gas_reserves/current/data/arrtab_all.xls


 * 1 Saudi Arabia [259B]
 * 2 Mexico [15B]
 * 3 Canada [5B]
 * 4 Venezuela [52B]
 * 5 Nigeria [25B]
 * 6 Iraq [115B]
 * 7 Angola [5.4B]
 * 8 United Kingdom [4.3B]
 * 9 Kuwait [99B]
 * 10 Norway [9.3B]
 * VERSUS USA [22.7B]

Only the OPEC nations have more reserves than the U.S. and all the smaller producers are at or past their peak oil production, so our imports must increase over time from OPEC nations.

In addition to our high dependence upon oil imports, world demand for oil continues to increase - threatening a bidding war for oil which will likely make prices continue to rise even before peak oil is reached.

predicting ultimate world reserves
World ultimate reserves include:
 * Oil already consumed
 * Proved Oil Reserves
 * Likely Oil added Reserves over time
 * New discoveries
 * Probabistic reserve added based on technology

Making estimates for all these numbers allows an "ultimate" reserve number to be computed.

Various estimates are given in a USGS report:
 * http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/presentations/2000/long_term_supply/sld009.htm
 * http://www.oilcrisis.com/campbell/Campbell_02-3.pdf

Estimates:
 * 3.896TB - USBS 5% probability (2000)
 * 3.003TB - USGS 50% probability (2000)
 * 2.400TB - BP geologist Harper (November 2004)
 * 2.248TB - USGS 95% probability (2000)
 * 1.900TB - US Geologist Campbell (2002)

Estimates of total consumption
Sources:
 * http://www.oilcrisis.com/campbell/Campbell_02-3.pdf
 * http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/publications/energy_reviews/STAGING/local_assets/downloads/pdf/oil_section_2004.pdf

Estimating total consumption
Estimate:
 * 875Bbbl Campbell (July 2002)
 * +13Bbbl (half 2002)
 * +28Bbbl (2003)
 * +31Bbbl (2004)
 * TOTAL CONSUMED ~947 Bbbl (Jan 1 2005)

Remaining ultimate reserve estimates
Subtracting this from the Ultimate reserves gives us an estimated "Ultimate remaining reserves"
 * 2.949TB - USBS 5% probability
 * 2.056TB - USGS 50% probability
 * 1.453TB - BP geologist Harper
 * 1.31TB - USGS 95% probability
 * 0.953TB - US Geologist Campbell

So, you can see there's up to a factor of 3 multiplier in possible estimates of remaining reserves.

Given these numbers, and current world production at a flat 84 million barrels/day, how long do we have until we're out?

Flat production oil depletion dates

 * 96 years (2101) - USBS 5% probability
 * 67 years (2072) - USGS 50% probability
 * 47 years (2052) - BP geologist Harper
 * 43 years (2048) - USGS 95% probability
 * 31 years (2036) - US Geologist Campbell

All those days seems "far off" - surely we'll figure SOMETHING out by then?!

Unfortunately there's a number of factors going against us: 1) The U.S. consumption rate per capita is 5 times the world average 2) World oil consumption is increasing from 1-4% per year. 3) The first half of the production curve takes most of the easy oil first, while the second half won't be as easy to extract. Oil production will be more expensive and geological limitations will restrict the rate of our extraction. 4) 2/3 of the world's proven reserves exist in the politically unstable Middle East

What do the above reserves look like in Hubbert's bell curve production curves? I made some spreadsheet calculations, using past production, and a 2% growth rate at present and an eventual 5% decay rate eventually as reserves are depleted.

Hubbert's curve on world ultimate reserves


This graph shows a more interesting prediction than the flat production calculation. A 5% decay curve was used as a hopeful "managable" rate of world production decline, although arguments could be made that it could be higher rate of decline if we are able to delay the peak date with continued higher production.

CURVE DATA: (bottom to top)
 * Campbell: 0.953 trillion left 2005 - 2% growth, 22 years to 5% decline
 * Harper: 1.453 trillion left in 2005 - 2% rise, to drop 5% 45 years - 2011 (half), 2016 peak @89.1Mbbl/day
 * USGS 50%: 2.06 trillion left in 2005 - 2% rise, 5% decline in 72 years, peak 2024
 * USGS 5%: 2.949 Trillion left in 2005 - 2% rise, 5% decline, 108 years, peak 106Mbbl/day in 2033

Color Key:
 * The gray area represents past production
 * The orange area represents Campbell's reserve estimate
 * The yellow area represents an addition of Harper's reserve estimate
 * The green area represents an addition of the USGS 50% probability estimate
 * The top purple area represents the adddition of the USGS 5% probability estimate

I like this graph because it gives a quick overview of the estimates in terms of Hubble's curve and we can try to imagine what it means.

You can see all of the curves assume we're on a declined growth rate as we approach the peak. Again that's a "managed" parameter, but political and technical limits will likely limit our production even if we wanted to keep increasing production.

Using these ranges, it shows "managed" peaks from 2010 to 2024 for "ranges oflikely reserves" and as late as 2033 with reserves based on only 5% probability.

Should we be panicking yet? I hope all the data I've offered predicts YES we should.

There are other estimates of "peak oil" based on more detailed data.

Early predictions

 * November 2005 - Kenneth Deffeyes, books "Hubbert’s Peak" and "Beyond Oil", geologist and Emeritus Professor at Princeton University
 * http://www.globalpublicmedia.com/articles/358
 * http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5636037/site/newsweek/
 * 2007 - Colin Campbell and ASPO (Association for the Study of Peak Oil&Gas)
 * http://www.peakoil.net/uhdsg/Default.htm
 * http://www.peakoil.net/Newsletter/NL50/newsletter50.pdf

Prediction of future oil production

 * ExxonMobil - 105 million barrels/day in 2020 (Assuing "nonconventional oil" sources are exploitable)
 * http://www.peakoil.net/Publications/20040201ExxonMobil.pdf

Names associated with Peak oil predictions

 * Colin Campbell, ASPO's founder, retired Irish oil industry geologist
 * Books
 * "The Coming Oil Crisis", 1998
 * Kjell Aleklett, President of ASPO
 * http://www.peakoil.net/
 * http://www.asponews.org/ ASPO News
 * Matthew R. Simmons - Chairman and CEO, Simmons & Company International, Houston
 * http://www.simmonsco-intl.com
 * Books
 * "Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy", May 2005
 * Julian Darley, director of Postcarbon Institute
 * http://www.highnoon.ws Highnoon for natural gas
 * News
 * http://www.straight.com/content.cfm?id=4892 "Author Predicts Energy Crisis" Sep 2004
 * We'll be in an energy crisis beyond belief by 2010, and so will the Chinese by 2008, by the way," Darley said.
 * Books
 * "High Noon For Natural Gas: The New Energy Crisis", 2004
 * Kenneth S. Deffeyes
 * http://www.princeton.edu/hubbert/
 * News
 * http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5636037/site/newsweek Aug. 16, 2004
 * World oil production will reach its ultimate peak on Thanksgiving Day 2005
 * Books
 * "Beyond Oil: The View from Hubbert's Peak", 2005
 * "Hubbert's Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage", 2001
 * Michael C. Ruppert, former Los Angeles Police Department narcotics officer
 * Books
 * "CROSSING THE RUBICON: The Decline of the American Empire at the End of the Age of Oil", 2004
 * David Goodstein, vice provost at California Institute of Technology
 * Books
 * "Out of Gas", 2004
 * James_Howard_Kunstler, writer
 * Books
 * "The Long Emergency: Surviving the End of the Oil Age, Climate Change, and Other Converging Catastrophes of the Twenty-first Century" May 2005
 * Richard Heinberg
 * Books
 * "Powerdown - Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World", 2004
 * "Party's Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies", New Society, 2003
 * Francis Harper, BP exploration consultant
 * http://www.thebusinessonline.com/modules/news/view.php?id=29138 Oil supply to peak sooner than we think, says BP scientist, November 7, 2004
 * Paul Roberts
 * http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A10714-2004Jun27?language=printer The Undeclared Oil War
 * Books
 * "The End of Oil: On the Edge of a Perilous New World", May 2004