User:TraderKPT/Gartley Pattern

Gartley Pattern

a.k.a. 'Gartley 222' pattern- A price pattern that utilizes Fibonacci numbers/ratios to determine valid trading opportunities which repeats itself near the top and bottom of trend.

Origns
The Gartley pattern was first outlined by H.M. Gartley in his book 'Profits in the Stock Market' (Lambert-Gann Publishing, 1935), page 222 (hence the term 'Gartley 222').

'Gartley stated in his 1935 masterpiece that over a 30 year period he found these patterns to be profitable in 7 out of 10 cases. Gartley had emphasized that the pattern was correct approximately 70% of the time. The statistics validating this are still the same as Gartley suggested over 60 years ago. Testing weekly, daily and intraday patterns over the past 40 years has proven that Gartley’s original premise was indeed accurate.' -http://www.traderslog.com/gartley-pattern/

Although the pattern is named "The Gartley," the book did not discuss specific Fibonacci retracements. Gartley instead used ratios of one third and two thirds with this pattern.

There are several who have assigned Fibonacci ratios and retracements to the framework of the Gartley pattern to help identify potential turning points. (Names) (Numbers)  They use a variety of Fibonacci numbers at the B and D points.

Such a large gamut of Fibonacci numbers assigned at the D points essentially labeled any AB=CD pattern as a Gartley. These interpretations assume that any reversal is valid if it completes at a 0.618 or a 0.786 without regard for the overall structural alignment. This has created much confusion among the technical community and has challenged the reputation of the pattern.

Although the general structure had been outlined previously, the assignment of the exact rules for specific Fibonacci retracements that yield the most reliable reversals, that being the .618 at the B point and the .786 at the D point, did not occur until 1999, with the release of Scott Carney's 'The Harmonic Trader'. This alignment has become the standard in the technical community and is now commonly referred to as the Gartley pattern.

Characteristics
Gartley Pattern Elements: • Precise 61.8% B point retracement of XA leg. • BC projection must not exceed 1.618. • Equivalent AB=CD pattern is most common. • 0.786 XA retracement. • C point within range of 0.382–0.886 retracement.

Although this strict application of the Gartley alignment reduces the number of pattern matches, it is critical in identifying valid patterns and effectively differentiating similar structures.

It is important to note that the Gartley pattern is simply one type of “M” or “W” Elliott Wave corrective pattern.

You can consider these patterns as part of Elliott Wave, continuation patterns or even reversal patterns.

The exact 0.618 B point requirement was just one condition in this interpretation of the structure. The Harmonic Trader also outlined the importance of the AB=CD pattern and the BC projection rules that required specific conditions to validate the structure. The Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ) of a Gartley possesses several other elements that differentiate the structure from other patterns. The pattern should possess a distinct and equivalent AB=CD pattern that converges in the same area as the 0.786 XA retracement. In fact, the completion of the equivalent AB=CD pattern and the 0.786 retracement are minimum requirements for a valid Gartley.

Frequently, the 0.786 XA retracement overlaps the AB=CD in the PRZ. In these cases, this convergence typically represents the defining level of the PRZ.

The BC projection is another specific condition to validate the structure, and it must not exceed a 1.618. Although the BC projection is a less significant number in the PRZ than in other patterns, the 1.618 limit helps to differentiate the Gartley structure. Typically, a BC extension greater than a 1.618 is found in Bat structures.

The BC projection should complement the other numbers in the PRZ, as a 1.13, 1.27, 1.41, or 1.618 extension should converge in the same area. It is important to note that the Gartley does not utilize any BC projection that is greater than a 1.618. Any BC projection that is greater than a 1.618 is usually found in Bat structures. Again, it is important to point out that the “0.382;0.886” Fibonacci retracement range for the C point can be any of the Harmonic Trading ratios that fall between these two constraints. Therefore, the C point can be 0.382, 0.50, 0.618, 0.707, 0.786, or 0.886.

Regardless of the required numbers in the PRZ, the Gartley must possess a precise B point retracement, which must be at 0.618 of the XA leg to validate the structure. In fact, the Gartley pattern requires the most precise B point alignment of all the harmonic patterns to define the best trading opportunities.

What invalidates the Gartley pattern:

1. The D completion point can not exceed X.

2. The C leg can not exceed A. C can be a 1.00 or double top or double bottom of X, this is a rare pattern but it is valid.

3. The B leg can not exceed X.

Formation
The main Fibonacci retracement ratios that we apply to the Gartley pattern include: .382 (used with strong trends), .50, .618 and .786. As mentioned in the Pattern Structure section below of this chapter the 1.00 is used and is a double top or bottom. Refer to Figure 4.

The Gartley pattern can be broken down into four segments which relate to the labeling of the swings. Point X is the high or low point of the swing and is the starting point of the pattern. The X can be found on longer time frames at major highs or lows. However, the X can also sometimes be found as a top or bottom within a larger trend, in other words the pattern can form within a larger swing or leg without the X being a major top or bottom.

The X point becomes the fulcrum or anchor price that all technical traders watch daily. After point X is formed and the market begins to move in one direction the XA leg begins to form, at this stage it is impossible to determine where the completion of the XA leg may be. There are certain characteristics of how this first swing embarks that give clues to the length and thrust of the XA leg: If there are gaps, wide range bars and tail closes in the direction of the trend this leg may take some time before a correction takes place.

Once it has been determined that the XA leg is complete then the next step is to watch the formation of the AB leg. This leg is the first reaction up or down from the initial impulse wave from X. The key items to watch in this formation are:

• The Fibonacci retracement ratio the market corrects to.

• The number of bars that form the leg.

• The similarities in slope and thrust

For example, if the AB leg takes a considerable amount of time, more than 8 to 10 bars to form of the XA leg, then we would assume that the market is basing for a larger correction, potentially to the .618, .786 or further.

As price begins to turn down or up from B it is important to note that the pattern would be invalid if the BC leg exceeded X.

It is possible for the completion point of this leg at C to be an exact double bottom or top of the X point and that is still a valid pattern, but if price at C exceeded X the pattern would then be invalid and would negate this pattern. See Figures 4 and 5.

Bullish
bearish gartley patterns with fibonacci ratio source: HarmonicTrader.com

This is a bearish pattern. It implies price will fall from point D. If you act quick enough, you can make a quick profit in a few days, weeks, months or even minutes, for this pattern.

The Bullish Gartley A distinct AB=CD and a 0.786 retracement define the Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ) in the Bullish Gartley (see Figure 6.1). However, these conditions are valid only with a 0.618 B point retracement of the XA leg.

Figure 4: Bullish Gartley

bullish gartley patterns source: HarmonicTrader.com

This is a bullish wave pattern, or part of reversal chart patterns which means the price will shoot up from point D.

Bearish
Figure 5: Bearish Gartley

Application
The Gartley pattern typically offers the trader a retracement entry into the trend rather than at exact tops and bottoms.