User:Tyrjo/Goldbasis

Goldbasis

Goldbasis Principle
An investment principle formed in 2007 by Tyr Johanson and Ian Johanson. Its key insight is that the value of a stock must be considered relative to hard currency. In short, if the price of a stock is not increasing relative to the price of gold, then its value is not increasing.

Goldbasis assumes:
 * 1) There are 3 basic asset types; hard currency cash, equities and bonds.
 * 2) It is better to invest in one asset type at at time because the price of these asset types tends to move in opposition to each other. Investing in multiple types at the same time will tend to dilute returns.

Goldbasis Investment Indicator (GINI)
One possible implementation of the Goldbasis principle is the Goldbasis Investment Indicator (GINI). This implementation assumes:
 * 1) The S&P 500 Index is an indicator of general stock market performance
 * 2) The gold price is an indicator of general hard currency performance
 * 3) U.S. Treasure 10-year Notes are an indicator of general bond performance

The indicator then determines the highest performing asset type and recommends moving 100% of personal investments to that asset type. Investment may be direct or indirect.
 * Indirect: Trade shares of an ETF or mutual fund that tracks the performance of the S&P 500 Index, gold bullion or 10-year T-Notes
 * Direct: Trade ownership of S&P 500 indexed company shares, gold bullion or 10-year T-Notes

GINI Theoretical vs Actual Performance
GINI's recommendation for a given day is based on price information known only on that day or before. Theoretical performance is determined by calculating past GINI recommendations using historical data. It is important to note that for a given day's indicator GINI does not use future information. It is not "cherry-picking" the best days to trade.

Actual performance is the future results of an investment made following GINI's recommendations. Past-performance is never a guarantee of future results, however, since the same algorithm is used to pick today's recommendation, is the same used to pick yesterday's, the long-term historical performance of the GINI algorithm can be used to provide some indication of how it is likely to perform under a variety of economic conditions.