User:Vipul/Michael D. Ward

Michael D. Ward is a professor of political science at Duke University, an affiliate of the Duke Network Analysis Center, and the principal investigator at Ward Lab, a website that creates conflict predictions using Bayesian modeling and network analysis.

Biography
Ward received a B. A. (Hons) from Indiana University in 1970 and a Ph.D. in political science from Northwestern University in 1977. After a few postdoctoral and visiting assistant professor positions, he became a professor of political science at the University of Colorado in 1982. He later moved to the University of Washington in 1997 and then to Duke University in 2009.

Academic work and reception
Ward is the author of two books on statistical methods and one book on world geography, as well as editor or co-editor of three books on political science and political geography.

Ward is the principal investigator at Ward Lab, a website that creates conflict predictions using Bayesian modeling and network analysis. The lab also runs Predictive Heuristics, one of the foremost blogs on global political forecasting and conflict forecasting.

Ward's paper "The perils of policy by p-value", along with Brian D. Greenhill and Kristin M. Bakke, was included by political scientist Jay Ulfelder in his list of suggested readings for political forecasters.

Ward is also known for having a relatively optimistic outlook about the ability to forecast potential conflicts and crises, putting him at odds with Jay Ulfelder, as expressed in an article by Ulfelder for Foreign Policy and a response by Ward and Metternich in the same magazine. Ulfelder later clarified his position and indicated that the disagreement was less deep than it seemed. A paper co-authored by Ward and others at Ward Lab received a mixed review from Ulfelder, who agreed with the author's goals and their assessment of the importance of the scientific value and policy relevance of forecasting, but considered the author's attempt in the paper to be overly ambitious.