User:WeatherWriter/2023 Little Rock tornado

Meteorological synopsis
By March 29, large sections of Iowa, Illinois, Missouri, southwestern Indiana, Arkansas, the western Tennessee Valley, and Kentucky were all given an enhanced risk for severe weather by the Storm Prediction Center. In this region, a powerful mid to upper level trough was expected to eject and interact with an atmosphere containing elevated moisture given the moderate dew points across the area, and elevated low and high level jet streams. This made the environment favorable for the development of a strong, fast-moving squall line, and discrete supercell thunderstorms capable of large hail and tornadoes.

By March 30, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) introduced a moderate risk for severe weather for two distinct regions in the northern and southern sections of the main risk area, where significant, long-tracked tornadoes were expected. In this outlook, the SPC discussed the presence of very high CAPE values reaching into the 1,000–1500 J/kg range, wind shear of more than 60 kt, and strong helicity of around 400 m2/s2, which aided the sustainment of supercells. Two distinct areas were given a 15% hatched risk for significant tornadoes. The first stretched between southeastern Iowa and northwestern Illinois, and the second was in northeastern portions of Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, western Tennessee, small sections of southwestern Kentucky, and northwestern Mississippi.

An extratropical cyclone developed over Nebraska on the morning of March 31. As a result, meteorologists expected a storm mode of discrete supercells to develop. This, along with the presence of even stronger CAPE values and a more unstable environment across Illinois and eastern Missouri, led to the SPC "bridging" the two main moderate risk areas and giving a 15% hatched risk for significant tornadoes at their 1300 UTC outlook. The surrounding area, which extended into central portions of Kentucky and Tennessee, extreme southwestern Indiana, and northwestern Alabama, was given a 10% hatched risk for tornadoes. Additionally, a large 30% contour for damaging wind gusts (with a smaller 45% risk in the northern part of the risk), and large hail were also added in this new outlook.

With increased confidence of favorable parameters for severe weather, the SPC upped the threat for strong tornadoes even further, introducing two tornado-driven high risk areas in their 16:30 UTC outlook; it was the first high risk issuance since March 25, 2021. In 2024, SPC forecaster and meteorologist Andrew Lyons stated, "we've been building up to this crescendo all week, knowing that pretty much all the parameters are there for something big and then one by one, each piece kind of fell in that morning." The first high risk area covered southeastern Iowa, northwestern Illinois, and far northeastern Missouri, while the second included eastern Arkansas, southwestern Tennessee, and northern Mississippi. These two distinct areas were given a 30% hatched risk for tornadoes, given the extremely favorable environment for the development and sustainment of discrete supercells with strong to violent tornado potential.

Supercells would be more scattered, but longer tracked within the southern high-risk area with multiple rounds of tornadic storms capable of producing long-lived strong to violent tornadoes expected. The large area surrounding and connecting the two high risk areas maintained a moderate risk, with an accompanying 15% hatched risk for tornadoes, as supercells that could develop in this environment could similarly sustain and rotate, although storm coverage was expected to be somewhat lower, and the environment would not be as favorable. All throughout the main risk area, an elevated risk for damaging winds and large hail was also issued, with the supercells initially capable of producing very large hail and long-tracked tornadoes expected to transition into QLCS structures capable of producing very strong straight-line winds and additional tornadoes that evening. Soon after the upgrade into a high risk, the SPC introduced their first two particularly dangerous situation tornado watches, indicating a 90-95% chance for multiple tornadoes, and a 90% chance for multiple strong to violent tornadoes.

Not long after these watches were issued, isolated discrete supercells began to develop across the western part of the state of Arkansas. The first tornado, which was rated high-end EF3, to touch down in this area prompted a tornado emergency as it caused catastrophic damage and dozens of casualties in the western and northern part of the Little Rock metro.

Tornado summary
This long-tracked, high-end EF3 wedge tornado developed just southwest of the Martindale community, near the intersection of Colonel Glenn Road and Marsh Road in Pulaski County at 2:18 p.m. CDT. Moving through Martindale into densely forested areas to the northeast, the tornado produced EF0 to EF1 damage, downing many trees and ripping a portion of a roof off an outbuilding. The tornado continued causing minor damage as it entered a subdivision off of Capitol Hill Boulevard, where some trees were snapped and fences were blown down. As it moved into the more populated Chenal Valley area of western Little Rock at EF1 intensity, the tornado damaged the roofs of homes in residential areas, inflicted considerable damage to a funeral home, damaged some businesses, and downed more trees.

As it crossed over the Chenal Parkway, the tornado rapidly intensified to EF3 strength and struck the Calais Forest Apartments, where multiple three-story apartment buildings had roofs and exterior walls ripped off, and some sustained destruction of their top floors. A large radio tower was knocked over, and the nearby Turtle Creek Apartments were damaged to a lesser extent. The tornado then caused widespread major damage as it entered the Breckenridge neighborhood at high-end EF2 strength, where numerous homes were severely damaged and had their roofs torn off, including some that had their exterior walls knocked down. The tornado then reached its peak intensity at the intersection of North Shackelford Road and Breckenridge Drive, where two neighboring two-story homes were completely flattened. These homes were anchored with nails rather than bolts, earning a high-end EF3 rating. The nearby Little Rock Fire Station 9, Shepherd Fold Church, a few businesses, and homes in surrounding neighborhoods sustained major damage, with damage intensity ranging from EF2 to EF3. Briefly weakening, the tornado caused EF1 damage as it crossed I-430 at the Rodney Parham Road interchange, damaging a shopping center and a Kroger, as well as flipping cars in a parking lot. Continuing northeastward through more residential areas on the west side of Reservoir Road, it became strong again, producing EF2 to EF3 damage as many homes and apartment buildings sustained total loss of their roofs and exterior walls. A cell tower was collapsed at Little Rock Reservoir Park, and damage at that location was rated EF2. Northeast of this area, the tornado weakened some but continued to cause extensive damage at EF1 to EF2 strength, crossing Cantrell Road and moving through more residential areas into the suburb of Cammack Village. Many homes, apartments, and businesses were damaged, and many trees were downed along this segment of the path, some of which landed on structures. A shopping mall had its roof damaged, the Pulaski County Title Office sustained total collapse of a large brick exterior wall, vehicles were moved and damaged, and several houses had large portions of their roofs removed. The National Weather Service Office in Little Rock issued a tornado emergency for Metro Little Rock as the tornado was impacting Cammack Village before being forced to take cover themselves shortly after that as the tornado was approaching their office, which is located just north of the North Little Rock Municipal Airport. Warning responsibilities were transferred to the Memphis, Tennessee, office during this time.

The tornado weakened further as it moved across the Arkansas River and through Burns Park, where hundreds, if not thousands, of trees were snapped or uprooted at EF1 strength. Continuing across I-40/US 65 into the Amboy neighborhood in North Little Rock, it strengthened back to EF2 intensity. A motel, some apartment buildings, and multiple houses were unroofed in this area. Several restaurants and businesses were damaged as well, including Dog Town Pizza, which had its roof torn off and sustained some collapse of exterior walls. Large light poles were bent to the ground at a baseball field, power poles were snapped, and a new fire station that was under construction along Military Drive was also damaged. Large trees were also downed throughout Amboy, some of which landed on residences and caused structural damage. EF1 to EF2 damage continued into the Indian Hills neighborhood, where a church, some apartment buildings, and many homes sustained roof damage, including a few houses that had partial to total roof loss. The tornado then crossed AR 107 into Sherwood, prompting the issuance of another tornado emergency for both Sherwood and Jacksonville. A majority of the damage in Sherwood was rated EF1, as homes sustained heavy roof and garage damage, garden sheds were destroyed, some businesses were damaged, and numerous trees were downed. However, an isolated area of EF2 damage was noted on Austin Bay Court, where a residence was significantly damaged. In addition, the Longstreth Apartments suffered high-end EF1 damage, sustaining roof loss.

After crossing over Indianhead Lake, the tornado briefly moved though unpopulated marshland as it approached Jacksonville, producing only EF0 to EF1 tree damage. Highway signs were damaged and a tractor-trailer was flipped as the tornado crossed US 67/US 167/Future I-57 at the Redmond Road interchange. The tornado began to strengthen again as it entered Jacksonville and moved through the baseball fields at Dupree Park, where large light poles were snapped at the base, many trees were snapped or uprooted, a building was damaged, and damage at the park was rated EF1 to EF2. Mainly EF2 damage occurred as the tornado severely damaged many homes, apartment buildings, and businesses throughout the town, many of which had their roofs torn off. A small strip mall, some self-storage buildings, a gas station, and a laundromat were destroyed, and debris from the laundromat was thrown into a nearby church, inflicting major structural damage. A small pocket of EF3 damage occurred along North Elm Street south of Graham Road, where the First Assembly of God Church was almost completely destroyed. The tornado then entered the Holland Bottoms State Wildlife Area, snapping or uprooting many trees at EF1 to EF2 strength as it moved into Lonoke County. EF1 to EF2 damage continued as the tornado moved into the Parnell community, where multiple homes sustained varying degrees of roof damage, including one home that was heavily damaged and sustained destruction of its attached garage, and many trees and power poles were snapped. Multiple metal-framed garage buildings were damaged or completely destroyed in Parnell, and a mobile home along AR 89 was also destroyed. After exiting Parnell, the tornado inflicted EF0 to EF1 damage to a few homes and some trees along AR 321 before dissipating southeast of Cabot at around 2:57 p.m. CDT.

The tornado was on the ground for 34.44 mi and reached a peak width of 600 yd. A total of 2,648 structures were damaged or destroyed throughout the city.

Aftermath
Following the tornado, Little Rock officials deployed 115 city workers to clear debris from roadways, and all routes were cleared for traffic by the afternoon of April 1. Shortly after the tornado struck, a mass casualty event was declared for the area, with the initial casualty count being over 600 people. 54 injuries were directly attributed to the tornado, with one indirect fatality occurring due to the tornado as well.