User:Wsargent99/Zone starts

= Zone starts (hockey) = Zone starts is a statistical measure in hockey, that refers to the percentage of face-offs where a player starts in the offensive zone relative to the defensive zone. The metric ignores neutral zone faceoffs, as well as on-the-fly shifts, isolating the ratio to represent shifts starting either in the offensive or defensive zones. The formula to calculate an individual players zone start percentage is:

SZ% = offensive zone starts / (offensive + defensive zone starts)

The main idea behind the use of the metric is to analyze the way in which coaches use individual players within their game plans. Players with higher SZ% are likely the team’s best offensive players and power play skaters while players with lower SZ% are better defensively and on the penalty kill.

Sample Calculation
Player A in a given game is on the ice for 7 offensive zone face-offs and 4 defensive zone face-offs. For this given game, Player A SZ% = 7/(7+4) = 63.6%.

From this calculation we can infer that Player A is better offensively.

Player B in a given game is on the ice for 6 defensive zone face-offs and 2 offensive zone face-offs. For this given game, Player B SZ% = 2/(6+2) = 25%.

From this calculation we can infer that Player B is better defensively.

Statistical Significance
Over the course of a season this metric will become more accurate with more data. There are two key numbers to focus on with zone starts:

54%: A player with SZ% greater than or equal to 54% is considered more of an offensive player. Rookie players also have a tendency to be around this point as they often times do not have the experience to be trusted in defensive zone situations.

46%: Players with SZ% less than or equal to 46% tend to be valued more for their defensive qualities. These are usually players on the 3rd and 4th lines, penalty killers, or players who are strong in face-offs.

The true significance of this statistic however has come into question with hockey coaches and experts alike. The main reason is most hockey shifts do not begin in the offensive or defensive zones, or with face-offs at all for that matter. The average player begins 60% of their shifts ‘on the fly’, thus SZ% does not apply for any of these shifts nor any neutral zone face-offs. The fact that this metric is only representative of a fraction of overall player shifts has made it less relevant.

This table does a good job of representing the disparity in the frequency of zone starts versus commonly calculated shift starting point data. The traditional way of thinking about how a player starts his shift is where the puck is on the ice when he starts his shift, represented by the traditional ZS% metrics. With all three categories, defensive, neutral, and offensive zones, there is about a 20% difference in favor of traditional SZ%, showing that zone starts can only represent a fraction of what a player's true use is by his coach.

Zone starts are significant in the aggregate however when looking at Corsi For Percentage.

We can see in this table how each individual shift starting position affects Corsi For Percentage. Players with higher SZ% are also likely to have higher CF%, and vice versa. It can be helpful to see how relevant a player’s Corsi percentage is when comparing it with SZ%. If a player has a high Corsi but also has a high SZ% the CF% will be slightly less significant. However if you see a player with a similarly high Corsi but an average/below average SZ%, you can infer that this player is more effective on his shifts overall.