User:Yangzaur/sandbox

1. What does the UNFCCC and IPCC stand for and what is the role of each with respect to understanding the potential impacts of climate change and adaptation responses? UNFCCC - United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change deals with policy & getting different states to sign agreements IPCC - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change look objectively at science, technical & socio-economic factors related to climate change understanding the risks of human-induced climate change, its impacts and options for adaptation & mitigation

2. How do impacts and adaptation relate to the ultimate objective of the UNFCCC (specifically with respect to biological and human systems)?

objective: achieve stabilization of GHG concentration at a level that would prevent dangerous anthro interference w/ climate system

3. What is meant by ‘dangerous climate change’ in the UNFCCC? What indicators have been used to try to establish a level of global warming that is ‘dangerous’?

'dangerous climate change' ecosystems cannot adapt naturally food product is threatened economic development cannot continue sustainably

4. What is the threshold of global warming (in degrees C) now considered ‘dangerous’ by the international community and being used to guide climate policy by UNFCCC signatories? What are some key impacts thought to occur just above the level defined as ‘dangerous’ by the Parties to the UNFCCC?

+2 degrees is the threshold

5. Which countries have set a lower threshold for the level of ‘dangerous’ climate change and what is their threshold (in degrees C)?

?

6. How much climate change (global average temperature increase) are we locked into, even if we managed to stop all anthropogenic GHG emissions today?

committed warming if GHG emissions stopped: ~0.1 degree per decade

7. What is the difference between ‘potential impacts’ and ‘residual impacts’? Which are more often determined in climate change impact assessments?

potential impacts does not consider adaptation, while residual impacts considers impacts after adaptation residual impacts more often determined in climate change impact assessments

8. Are all impacts of climate change negative (both for natural systems and human systems)? no, some impacts are beneficial and some are detrimental

9. Define ‘vulnerability’ to climate change. What are the three components that vulnerability is a function of? Be able to explain these three components and how the interact to determine vulnerability. vulnerability = the degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change function of: exposure: how much stress upon a unit analysis (e.g. long-term changes in climate conditions or climate variability) sensitivity: how much a system is affected (good or bad) - direct or indirect adaptive capacity: how well a system can adjust to climate change, take advantage of opportunities, or cope with consequences

10. Climate impact assessment requires a clear picture of two interrelated processes: socio-economic change and climatic change. Which has not generally been adequately incorporated in climate change impact assessments? socio-economic change

11. Broadly, how does a top-down, scenario-based climate change assessment differ from a bottom-up, contextual vulnerability approach? top-down approach focuses mainly on future, whereas bottom-up approach focuses more on present and past bottom-up approach helps you understand on a local scale, but cannot answer the grand question of "Should we spend money on mitigation?" top-down approach focuses on "average" conditions, therefore difficult to "expect" extreme events 12. What is the ‘cascade of uncertainty’ and how does uncertainty change as move through the stages of climate change impact assessment? When is uncertainty generally the greatest? uncertainty grows through the stages of climate change impact assessment most uncertain = socio-economic impacts

13. What are some of the different ways extreme weather and climate change have impacted historical societies? Typhoons stop Mongol invasion of Japan Spanish Armada destroyed by storm Drought and severe winter caused famine - start French Revolution

14. What does the ‘Long Summer’ refer to? 10,000 years of relative climate stability (warm), when all agriculture & human civilization has taken place

15. Weather variability and extreme have been found to have substantial impact on the US economy. What sectors were found to be the most weather sensitive? What regions of the US has been most impacted by large weather disasters? manufacturing and agriculture most weather sensitive Drought in southwest, Hurricane Sandy in northeast

16. Can we say that recent extreme weather events (e.g., Hurricane Katrina, the 2003 Western European heat wave, etc) were caused by climate change? Why or why not? you can't blame a single event on climate change, but you can look at climate change's effect on the frequency of extreme events determine the odds (probability) that an event would have occurred w/ and w/o ACC

17. Trends in damage and insurance payout for property losses from natural disasters have been increasing the last 40 years. What are the main causes of increased damages? Is the trend in increased damage the same for all major types of disasters? increased damages because population is increasing & because of increased frequency of extreme events weather-related losses have been growing much faster than non-weather-related events

18. In the US, are the economic impacts of natural disasters evenly distributed among all regions and among all socio-economic groups? no

19. What are the 4 major pathways by which climate change will impact species and ecosystems? Provide an example to illustrate each pathway. Range & abundance of species Succulent Karoo and Cape Floristic regions along west coast of Africa - global biodiversity hotspots, but climate change is shifting species southward and the hotspots eventually collapse as there is nowhere left to go Life cycle timing of migration changes due to increased average annual temperature: when geese go up north early, food isn't ready - have to find new food source Evolutionary effects selection pressure: individuals with higher genetic capacity for adaptations are favoured, others are eliminated - loss of genetic diversity & new community groupings Disturbance Regimes & Ecosystem level change increased summer temperature leads to forest drought and mountain pine beetle epidemic, this leads to major wildfires and changes in ecosystem structure & function

20. On the map that illustrates how the distribution of major vegetation units (biome level) changed since the last glacial maximum, what does ‘no analogue’ mean and how does this relate to what is expected to occur in the future? 'no analogue' = no current equivalent of this biome shows that individual species are moving and combining

21. Species and ecosystems have always adapted to climatic changes. What two factors are fundamentally different with respect to ecosystem adaptation to climate change than over the last 15,000 years when species and ecosystems adapted to deglaciation of North America? happening at a much faster rate people are here - no longer a continuous landscape that made it easier for species/ecosystems to move & adapt

22. In 100-200 years would we expect to find boreal forest just like we have now, but with it northern border hundreds of kilometres further north? Why or why not? boreal forest moves up in bits, not uniformly, and some trees will not be able to move

23. What are the two major impacts of climate change that are affecting coral reefs? coral bleaching due to high sea surface temperatures CO2 concentrations increase - acidification prevents reefs from growing and, at high levels, will dissolve them 24. What are some examples of major ecosystem services that are projected to be impacted by climate change? SLR -> reduction in global wetland area ocean acidification -> corals become increasingly rare rising ocean temp -> increase in fish catch potential in high latitude regions and drop in tropics water availability -> billions of people affected by increased water scarcity

25. What are 4 main ways climate change will impact agriculture / food production? productivity (quantity & quality of crops) agricultural practices environmental effects rural areas

26. Agriculture in Canada is expected to be impacted by climate change in both positive and negative ways. What are 3 positive and 3 negative impacts of climate change on agriculture in Canada?

positive impacts: increased productivity from warmer temp possibility of growing new crops longer growing seasons negative impacts: increased insect infestations crop damage from extreme heat increased soil erosion

27. What regions of the world are expected to have the greatest decline in agricultural production (staple cereal crops) because of climate change? middle eastern countries and Mexico

28. Under higher warming scenarios, what is projected to happen to global productivity of main cereal staple crops? maize, wheat and rice will decline as temperature rises

29. How is climate change expected to differentially impact agricultural production and food security among developed and developing nations? more scarcity in developing nations - increased risk of hunger up to +3C, developed nations can benefit form increased production

30. Is climate change expected to increase or decrease malnutrition rates in developing countries? How would this impact human health? increased malnutrition in developing countries detrimental to human health

31. What are the four main factors aggravating water scarcity in the next 50-100 years? Population growth Increased urbanization High level of consumption Climate change

32. Do scientists have as much confidence in GCM projections of precipitation as they do for temperature projections? Why the difference? not as much confidence in projections of precipitation because it has more regional variability than temperature

33. In regions where more precipitation is projected to fall under climate change, why can net drying during growing season still be projected? even though there is more precipitation, it evaporates at a faster rate because of increased temperature

34. In addition to reduced precipitation (rain and snow), what other major factor altered by climate change will reduce freshwater availability in some areas (seasonally or year round)? see #31

35. Why is decreased snow pack in most mountain regions an important issue for water supply in nearby areas? snowpack functions as a natural reservoir - depended upon for drinking water and agriculture

36. What are the main ways that climate change could impact human health? Which are likely to be the greatest ‘killers’, in terms of potential additional deaths? Extreme heat temperature-related illness and death Other extreme weather events, precipitation Air pollution Food & water shortages Infectious disease - greatest killers tropical diseases malaria dengue fever

37. As the frequency of extreme heat waves increases under climate change, would we expect the same number of people to die from each successive event? Why or why not? we would expect fewer deaths because we have more adaptive technology 38. Is the extension of malaria carrying mosquito habitat into the US and Australia expected to have the same impact on disease transmission as in areas of Africa and Southeast Asia? Why? not the same in US/Australia because these countries have more access to preventative measures and treatment

39. What are the two main causes of global sea level rise in the 21st century? As the ocean warms, the water expands Exchange of the water stored on land by glaciers and ice sheets with ocean water (glaciers & ice sheets melt into ocean)

40. How different were sea levels at the last glacial maximum (roughly 18-20,000 years ago) than today? What were sea levels like the last time global temperatures were about +2 degrees warmer than today for a prolonged time? sea levels were much lower at the last glacial maximum compared to today last time global temperatures were +2 warmer than today, sea levels were 4-6m higher than today

41. If global temperatures stabilized at current levels, would we expect sea level rise to stop? Why?

no 42. Have changes in sea level over the last 100 years been the same around the world?

no- certain areas will have more SLR than others 43. Have IPCC projections of sea level rise been shown to be conservative or alarmist? satellite & tidal gauge observations tend to be at the high end of IPCC's projections so, the projections were conservative

44. What is the range of global sea level rise projected in the 21st century by the IPCC and more recent studies? Is sea level rise expected to be the same everywhere and why?

IPCC predicted much less SLR than more recent studies not expected to be the same everywhere differences caused by gravitational changes with ice mass loss 45. What are the main types of impacts that are associated with sea level rise?

inundation, flood & storm damage wetland loss & change (damage habitats) erosion (affects agricultural & urban lands as well as coastal infrastructure) saltwater intrusions (to surface waters & groundwater) rising water tables & impeded drainage (inland flooding) 46. What does ‘coastal squeeze’ refer to? Explain the process.

when coastal habitats are trapped between a sea wall and rising sea levels 47. What regions of the world are expected to have the most people displaced by sea level rise of 1 meter? What region is expected to lose the most land? southeast asia is expected to lose the most land and have the greatest displaced population 48. What is an environmental refugee and are they granted the same status and support as other categories of refugees by the United Nations?

a displaced person caused by climate induced environmental change these refugees are not yet recognized by international law 49. What is the range of estimates for the numbers of environmental refugees climate change could cause? What type of impact would be the source for the greatest number of climate change refugees?

estimates from 200 million to 500-600 million environmental refugees SLR greatest source 50. What types of countries are at risk to ‘physical extinction’ from climate change and sea level rise? Where are they located? What are some of the legal complications of the loss of physical land area for a country?

small islands and Asian megadeltas are at risk to 'physical extinction' some legal complications: if a nation is under water, it it still a state? what becomes of its exclusive economic zone? do these nations have any legal recourse for compensation?

51. What are the four regions that the IPCC has identified as being particularly vulnerable to climate change? Arctic Africa Small islands Asian megadeltas 52. Other research has ranked the relative vulnerability of specific countries to climate change. Identify 5 that are thought to be highly vulnerable and 5 that are thought to have low vulnerability.

highly vulnerable: Haiti Ethiopia Bangladesh Philippines Cambodia low vulnerability: Australia Canada USA Norway Denmark

53. What aspect of climate change impacts concerns you the most? Why?

drought, because water is essential to life and drinking water is a non-renewable resource. 54. What were the top five climate change adaptation priorities for Canada, according the UW Climate Change Adaptation Project?

City Infrastructure Biodiversity Freshwater First Nations Agriculture 55. Define climate change adaptation (pay particular attention to the three main facets of the IPCC definition). adaptation = an (1) adjustment in natural/human systems in response to (2) actual/expected climatic stimuli/effects, which (3) moderates harm and exploits beneficial opportunities

56. What are the different types of climate change adaptation? Give an example of each. nature of responses autonomous vs. planned/purposeful timing of responses anticipatory/proactive vs reactive/responsive types of responses policy, management, technology, behaviour change who adapts & at what scale EXAMPLES: natural systems are always reactive e.g. changes in length of growing season wetland migration human systems can anticipate & react anticipate: purchase insurance, new building codes react: changes in insurance premiums, enforcement of building codes autonomous & reactive: species are adapting automatically to climate change as it comes, e.g. plants bloom earlier in the spring planned & anticipatory: Maldive islands constructs an artificial island as they anticipate their current capital will be destroyed by SLR there are more - if time, write em down

57. What is adaptive capacity and what some of its major determinants? the ability of a system to adjust to CC to: moderate potential damages take advantage of opportunities cope with consequences what determines adaptive capacity? economic wealth infrastructure/technology information, knowledge & skills

58. What is maladaptation and give an example of it. an action that increases vulnerability to CC-related hazards e.g. sea walls where Hurricane Katrina hit made sense, but the hurricane broke them down - ended up with increased the risk of flooding because there were fewer places for the water to escape

59. What does ‘mainstreaming’ adaptation refer to? building CC into regular planning and policymaking - not an extra thing

60. You see an ‘expert’ in the media comment that its too expensive to reinvent the energy system and leave oil and gas in the ground, and that we should just rely entirely on climate change adaptation. Is that a good idea (why / why not)? not a good idea - adaptation will never be perfect also, there is no science on how we will adapt to +4C warming

61. Does climate change adaptation by one country or economic sector always benefit other countries or economic sectors? Why not?

62. What are the six main barriers to climate change adaptation? Cognitive lack of understanding, lack of data Financial with limited funds/resources, you can only do so much Social / cultural e.g. unwilling to consider 'radical response' Technological risky/impractical solutions Physical / ecological e.g. you can only water crops so much; if it's too hot, they won't survive Institutional / Policy e.g. adaptation competes for scarce resources

63. How expensive in climate change adaptation expected to be in developing nations? How do anticipated adaptation funding requirements compare with current levels of Official Development Assistance (ODA or ‘international aid’)? What is the position of developing countries with respect to the relationship between climate change adaptation funding and ODA? CC adaptation in developing nations - US $1 billion annually this would double the existing ODA support CC adaptation resources must be in addition to existing ODA