User:Zombie Hunter Smurf/Sandbox4

The Drowned Baby Timeline (DBTL) is a multi-part Alternate_history that was first posted to the Soc.history.what-if Usenet Newsgroup by (pseudonym) Johnny Pez from 2000 to 2004, with later contributions by Jussi Jalonen, Dan McDonald and Demetrios Rammos. DBTL can be seen as an illustration, in negative, of the Great_Man_Theory of history, which holds that the talents and personalities of individual people can and do impact the world on a large scale. Just as the right man in the right place and time can change the world for the better, the wrong man in the wrong place and time can make great changes for the worse. In this view, Adolf_Hitler is a textbook example of the wrong man in the wrong place and time. His unique talents and personality interacted with his environment to produce literally unimaginable amounts of pain, suffering and death. Thus, if you remove Hitler from 20th century Germany, you also remove unimaginable amounts of pain, suffering and death from the world. The Drowned Baby Timeline can be seen as an illustration of this idea. ==Point of divergence== The point of divergence (POD) from our timeline (OTL) occurs on 20 April 1889 when a newly-born Adolf Hitler is accidentally drowned while being bathed by a midwife. The alternate timeline (ATL) begins to gain traction after World_War_I when Anton_Drexler's newly formed German_Workers_Party (DAP) remains a tiny debating society instead of being transformed by Hitler into the National_Socialist_German_Workers_Party (NSDAP), a mass movement that unites the German right. In this ATL, the German right remains as fragmented as the contemporary French right with its Action_Francaise, Jeunesses_Patriotes and Croix_de_Feu. Men who joined the NSDAP in OTL will join minor fringe parties (as does the DBTL Heinrich_Himmler), or Alfred_Hugenberg’s German_National_People's_Party (DNVP) (as does the DBTL Joseph_Goebbels), or not enter politics at all (such as the DBTL Hermann_Göring). ==Presidential election and coup d'etat== With no Nazi Party to compete with, Hugenberg's DNVP becomes the second largest party in Germany behind the Social_Democratic_Party_of_Germany (a status held in OTL by the Nazis). Hugenberg becomes Chancellor in place of OTL's Heinrich_Brüning in the early 1930s. When President Paul_von_Hindenburg’s term of office expires in May 1932, Hugenburg is elected President of Germany. In OTL Hugenberg was a newspaper publisher who never held any executive office, so it is impossible to say what sort of president he would have been. He was known for his outspoken opposition to the so-called Socialist Republic; and his determination to break the power of the trade unions. He might have made himself dictator of Germany, or he might have been content to allow Germany to remain a multiparty democracy. In any event, a random factor appears in DBTL at this point – a random factor that also appeared in OTL: an ambitious general named Kurt_von_Schleicher, who uses the Freikorps to destabilize the German political process. The Freikorps in both timelines were made up of a mix of veteran German soldiers and young soldier wannabees. They served as an auxiliary arm of the German army for use against domestic enemies: unruly Communists, striking workers and troublesome ethnic minorities. The most important leader of the Freikorps in both timelines was Ernst_Röhm, a brutal, heavyset, scarfaced thug and sometime army captain. In OTL most of the Freikorps were either Nazis like Röhm or were members of an allied organization called the Stahlhelm. In the DBTL the Freikorps have a similar relationship with the DNVP, although there are relatively more in the Stahlhelm and fewer in the DNVP. In the DBTL, von Schleicher’s first move is to detach the Freikorps from the DNVP in the runup to the presidential elections of March 1932 and establish it as a rival political party called the New National Party (NNP). In the course of his own maneuvering for power behind the scenes, von Schleicher unleashes the NNP thugs upon Germany, then uses the resulting spasm of street violence to get himself named Chancellor by President Hugenberg. As in OTL, however, the chaotic events set in motion by von Schleicher escape his control. Röhm launches a coup d’etat and seizes power from Hugenberg and von Schleicher, making himself dictator of Germany in October 1932. ==The Röhm regime and the invasion of Poland== Outwardly, little has changed from OTL. Germany is still a right-wing dictatorship under a violently anti-Semitic regime. However, the difference between Hitler and Röhm is the difference between OTL and the DBTL. For all his noxious personal beliefs, Hitler was a shrewd politician who was willing and able to co-opt the established institutions of power in Germany, especially the army and big business, to willingly serve his interests. Röhm was a simple street brawler whose only tactical maneuver was the frontal assault. Once he gains power, the army’s officer corps is purged, thoroughly and none too gently. Within two years the traditional German army is gone, replaced by a new Brown Army (BA) in black and brown uniforms. What the BA lacks in training and discipline, it makes up for in fanaticism. German industry, meanwhile, is confiscated from its owners under various pretexts and handed over to Röhm’s cronies. Their administrative skills and business acumen leave much to be desired, and by 1936 Germany is unique among the world’s industrialized nations in having the only economy that is doing worse than it was in 1932. Röhm decides to circumvent the growing popular unrest by going to war, and on 10 May 1936 Germany’s Brown Army swarms across the Polish frontier. At first, surprise and sheer numbers allow the Germans to drive the Polish army back. As the Poles recover from their surprise, the German advance slows, then stops, over wider areas of the front. A final German attempt to take Warsaw in November fails, and as winter sets in across Europe, the German-Polish war reaches a stalemate. Image:DBTL_Poland_1936B.jpg ==The wider world== Meanwhile, the changes caused by Hitler’s absence are spreading across Europe and the world. The attempt to assassinate Chancellor Engelbert_Dollfuss of Austria in 1934 fails. Benito_Mussolini, forced by the unpredictable Röhm to keep a close watch on Germany, has to forego his efforts to destabilize Yugoslavia, and postpone his cherished plan to invade Ethiopia. There is no attempt to assassinate King Alexander_I_of_Yugoslavia, and Louis_Barthou remains Foreign Minister of France. It is the German invasion of Poland, though, that sends the changes spreading far and wide. In Spain, the news leads Generals Emilio_Mola and Francisco_Franco to make a fateful decision: they will not wait for the Falangists and Carlists to join their conspiracy against the Republic. Instead, they will launch their coup right away. They do, and within days the Mola Putsch is crushed. In Romania, Corneliu_Codreanu reaches the same conclusion: never mind the Army, now is the time for the Iron_Guard to act. King Carol calls upon General Ion_Antonescu to put down the Iron Guard, and he does so, afterwards ruling Romania in an uneasy coalition with the Socialists. In France, the newly-elected Popular_Front government of Léon_Blum reluctantly honors the alliance Barthou has negotiated with the Poles, and declares war on Germany. However, mindful of the fate of his fellow Socialists in Spain, he delays mobilizing the French army for several months, fearing that the army's reactionary leadership would rather march on Paris than Berlin. In the United_Kingdom, an equally reluctant Prime Minister Stanley_Baldwin follows suit. (The only Dominion of the British Empire to do likewise is Australia, following the replacement of Prime Minister Joseph_Lyons by Robert_Menzies.) The only immediate military response by the British, though, is an aggressive blockade of Germany by the newly-reappointed First Sea Lord, Winston_Churchill. In Moscow, Josef_Stalin dismisses the war; it is simply one of the usual squabbles between capitalist states for markets and resources. The Communist_Party_of_the_Soviet_Union will remain neutral, and so will every other Communist Party in the world (or else). In Ottawa, Prime Minister Mackenzie_King weighs a declaration of war in the balance, and finds it wanting. This war is not Canada’s war. In Washington,_D.C., Franklin_Delano_Roosevelt makes an intemperate remark lauding the Western Allies. The reaction from Congress is swift and severe: a draconian Neutrality Act forbidding the US from selling munitions to any nation at war. In Cape_Town, the question of war with Germany splits the United_South_African_National_Party and brings down the government of J.B.M. Hertzog. Hertzog and his followers reunite with Dr. Daniel_Malan’s resurgent National Party, and following Parliamentary elections in June, a new Hertzog government begins implementing policies to institutionalize segregation in South Africa. ==The Christmas offensive== In Berlin, Röhm and the remnants of the German General Staff draw up plans for a vast spring offensive which is tentatively scheduled for mid-April. In besieged Warsaw, though, Marshal Josef_Pilsudski has no intention of waiting that long. Factories in eastern Poland are turning out tanks and guns, and by late December the Poles are ready to launch an offensive of their own. Although the details of the offensive are the work of the Polish military, the inspiration comes from a German officer named Heinz_Guderian who fled to Warsaw during Röhm’s purge of the army. On the morning of 25 December 1936, Polish tank columns drive into the German siege lines surrounding western Warsaw. Thousands of BA troops are killed or wounded, and tens of thousands are captured. Despite stubborn German resistance, the Polish advance continues, and the breakthrough at Warsaw moves in ripples down the length of the front. By the end of January 1937, the BA is in retreat everywhere, and the Polish spearhead is closing in on Poznan. By the end of March, the Polish spearhead has crossed into Germany, and the Polish army is on the outskirts of Danzig. By the end of April, the Germans have been driven out of Poland, and the Polish spearhead is closing in on Berlin. The prospect of a total Polish victory over Germany galvanizes the Western Allies into action. The British carry out an amphibious landing on the German coast against almost no opposition and advance rapidly to the south. This in turn prompts the French to finally invade Germany. By the end of April, both Western Allies are driving deep into Germany. Mussolini, who despises Röhm as only a fellow Fascist can, takes this opportunity to declare war on Germany, as does his Austrian ally Dollfuss. The Italian Army begins its slow, chaotic mobilization. June sees the final collapse of the Röhm regime. The Polish army surrounds Berlin, then overruns it. Röhm commits suicide on 28 June, and the next day his successor, War Minister Wilhelm_Keitel, surrenders unconditionally to the Allied coalition (including Romania, which declared war on 12 June). By 30 June all of Germany has been occupied by British, French and Polish troops (the Italian Army is still in transit through Austria), and the German state has ceased to exist. ==Postwar settlement and the law of devolution== In July, delegations led by Baldwin, Blum and Pilsudski meet in Potsdam to map out postwar policy for Germany. Baldwin is inclined to be lenient until the Poles conduct him through the Sachsenhausen concentration camp and the newly-uncovered mass graves just outside it. The sight of thousands of emaciated corpses hardens Baldwin’s heart, and he agrees with Polish demands that Germany be partitioned. The ad-hoc administration of Germany by the armed forces of the three nations is formalized, and a military governor is appointed by each to rule over its zone of occupation. Image:DBTL_Germany_1937A.jpg The Baldwin government quickly decides to form the British zone of occupation into an independent state called Hanover. The final handover to a local government will take place in the summer of 1944. In France, Blum succeeds in thwarting efforts by some of the Deputies to annex the Saar, and he announces that the French zone of occupation will also be formed into an independent state called Bavaria, which is also set to begin its existence in 1944. In Poland, however, calls for the annexation of this or that slice of German territory quickly snowball until the Sejm votes to annex the entire Polish zone of occupation. An unintended consequence of the annexation makes itself apparent in June 1938, when the Polish Republic’s new territories send 80 German-speaking delegates to the Sejm. Between the Ukrainians, the Lithuanians, the Jews, and the newly-annexed Germans, the Poles are now a minority in their own country. Marshal Pilsudski is now in a position to implement his long-cherished plan to transform Poland into a federal republic. Or rather, as Pilsudski’s stomach cancer has belatedly manifested itself, his chosen successor, General Stanislaw Skwarczinski, will implement the plan. With Skwarczinski directing the effort, the Polish Socialists, together with the Peasants Party, the Germans, and the other minority parties in the Sejm, succeed in passing a Law of Devolution allowing the creation of autonomous regions, or devos, within the Polish state. Brandenburg is the first, followed by Galicia, then Silesia, then Central Lithuania, then Prussia, and finally Belarus. Image:DBTL_Poland_1940.jpg ==Rise of the Polish Commonwealth== With the dismemberment of Germany, the Polish Commonwealth becomes the leading state in Central Europe. The Polish government, under Premier Josef_Beck, fulfills another of Marshal Pilsudski's dreams by negotiating a defensive alliance with most of the other states bordering the Union_of_Soviet_Socialist_Republics, including Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Romania. (By an odd coincidence, this alliance is called the Warsaw Pact.) A mutual defense pact is also negotiated with Japan. Czechoslovakia and Lithuania, whose relations with Poland have been hostile since their creation in the aftermath of the World War, do not participate in the Warsaw Pact. Along with their diplomatic initiatives, the Poles also continue to upgrade their military machine, aided by the resources of the newly-annexed German lands. Marshal Skwarczinski creates a Polish rocket program in 1939, headed by the German rocket scientist Werner_von_Braun. The first successful test of a long-range rocket takes place in 1943, an event observed by the American writer and journalist Ernest_Hemingway and Flight Lieutenant Arthur_C._Clarke of the Royal_Air_Force. Skwarczinski also hires Hermann Göring away from Howard_Hughes in 1940 and places him in charge of Project Octopus, a program to create a jet aircraft. Despite a distracting visit from his ex-wife Ingrid_Bergman and her new husband Raoul_Wallenberg, Göring succeeds, and in 1944 his factory in Bialystok begins turning out Poland's first military jet, the Lily. The rockets and jets come none too soon, for on 6 October 1944 President Antanas_Smetona of Lithuania dies, prompting a coup attempt in Kaunas by Soviet agents. The Lithuanian crisis quickly escalates into war between the Polish Commonwealth and the Soviet Union. ==The Second Polish-Soviet War== As the Polish army enters Lithuania on 7 October, the USSR announces a defense pact with the coup plotters, who call themselves the Socialist Peoples Front, and Red_Army troops invade the Central Lithuanian, Belarussian, and Galician devos. This comes as no surprise to Marshal Skwarczinski, who had been monitoring the ongoing Soviet troop buildup on Poland's eastern border, and the Polish army is waiting in defensive positions. However, the sheer size of the Soviet force forces the Polish army back anywhere from 25 to 100 miles by 22 October. Although Romania and Japan initially remain neutral, the other members of the Warsaw Pact respond to the Soviet invasion by declaring war on the USSR. The Finns take the opportunity to launch a surprise aerial bombardment of the Soviet navy base at Kronstadt which destroys much of the Red_Navy's Baltic Fleet. 22 October is the date of Operation Lightning, the Polish counteroffensive masterminded by General Guderian, now a member of the Polish General Staff. Despite its superior numbers, the Red Army is driven back by the Poles. Within a week, the Polish army crosses into the Byelorussian and Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republics. As they penetrate deeper into the USSR, the Polish troops begin to encounter villages and towns that have risen up against Communist rule in anticipation of their arrival. Minsk, the capital of the BSSR, rises up on 5 November and the Polish army enters the city on the afternoon of the 6th. The Ukrainian capital of Kiev likewise rises up on 17 January 1945, at which time Ukrainian party boss Nikita_Krushchev is spotted trying to escape the city and torn apart by a mob. With the Red Army reeling in the west, the Japanese decide that the time is right to honor their defensive pact with the Polish Commonwealth, and the Kantogun in Manchuria launches a surprise attack across the Amur River. However, the Red Army is waiting for them, and the Japanese are thrown back. By the end of 1944, the Red Army has crossed the Amur in its turn and begun to drive the Japanese back. The Romanians also belatedly declare war on the USSR on 25 January 1945, but by this time the Polish army and its Ukrainian partisans have occupied all the territory bordering Romania. By the beginning of March, Polish troops have entered the Russian_Republic itself, and much of the Ukraine is in revolt, while the Finnish army has besieged Leningrad and occupied all of Karelia and the Kola_Peninsula. Stalin decides to seek a truce with the Warsaw Pact nations, and on 18 March an armistice is declared in the west. The Soviets agree to cede Karelia and the Kola Peninsula to the Finns, Setaland to the Estonians, and the Byelorussian and Ukrainian Republics to the Polish Commonwealth. The Japanese, though, refuse to agree to a truce unless the Soviets withdraw from Manchuria, which Stalin refuses to do; the war in the east will continue for the next five years, until the Red Army conquers the Japanese home islands. ==External links== *The first 50 episodes of DBTL. *soc.history.what-if Drowned Baby