User talk:2600:8800:3028:B600:9156:3F74:C956:2482

/* /* Suggested update to page incorporating probability of detection - the Radio Rebuttal */ new section */ new section
While reviewing an article on the range of radio transmissions in the galaxy, it seems that the Drake equation, although only postulating the number of civilization with which we could communicate that may exist, was born in the context of SETI which involves the quest to actually detect their presence, especially via radio waves. However, as the article demonstrates, one factor that is lacking in the equation in terms of probability of detection (vs probability of the possibility of detection, ie. 'existence'), is the vastness of space.

The picture in the linked article above illustrates the issue. Space is so big, that it is entirely plausible that thousands of such candidate civilizations in the same galaxy may never detect each other. Put another way, pretend that you were teleported to another galaxy, and the aliens there wanted to invade earth to prevent more earthlings from showing up in their galaxy. Although they can instantly teleport to our galaxy, they don't know where we are in it and you're not talking. Even if they could travel all around our galaxy to set up radio detection devices everywhere, there would not be enough time to deploy them in the Milky Way and find earth via its radio transmissions.

While the size of space and the slowness of C in that space does not enter into the theoretical question of 'existence', the Drake equation's context (perhaps an 'outer' function?) regarding detection which inspired Drake's attempt to quantify the likelihood of detection, argues for the size vs speed of radio argument to be a factor that should be in such an equation. Without it, Drake's equation is too simple in that context; a partial equation.

Is this fact (size-vs-radio-speed) something that should be in the Drake equation wikipedia page though? Yes, when you consider that it is questioning the very premise of the equation which is: "Drake equation - so what? It's statistically irrelevant given the size-radio-speed issue. Sure you can still listen for a signal, but if you thought the Drake equation gave you some kind of hope by bringing an impossibility into the realm of the possible, the size-radio-speed factor puts it even further out of reach." Also, given the widespread use of the Drake equation as a tool to justify and promote the idea of alien contact (it's drawn like a gun) and suppress any objection or even considered thought against the implications, such an edit to include these factors would be beneficial. Perhaps they could be listed under a special heading phrased better but still meaning "Why this won't work" to address such naïve usage.