User talk:2607:FEA8:55E0:837:BC62:C628:DA5B:3FEE

I am resending this message because I may have not done it correctly the first time

Allow me first to introduce myself, as this is my first Wiki contribution. My screen name is "lightning detector". I am a retired research scientist in atmospheric science (meteorology), and as my screen name suggests, one subject I studied was the use of data from lightning detector instruments. Therefore I am trained and experienced in statistical analysis and in reading scientific papers.

I am commenting on the Wiki article "COVID-19 pandemic in Ontario", which I have been particularly following since I live in Ontario. I am reading the article as at 15:00 ET (19:00 UT) 2020 May 16.

I wish to suggest that a specific sentence in the article is faulty and should be changed. Under "COVID-19 testing / Testing access" there is a sentence "Since many cases are not tested ... a factor of 20 to 100." The first part of the sentence is satisfactory, but I object to "which have been estimated to be a factor of 20 to 100 higher".

Taken literally, this means that there might be 100 times the official number of COVID-19 cases in Ontario. There are officially now about 20000 cases in Ontario; 100 times that is 2 million, which is 15% of the Ontario population. I do not believe that any informed person in Ontario considers this a credible possibility.

The sentence cites a reference: "STAY HOME: ... says Ottawa medical officer of health", referring to the interview of a Dr. Vera Etches. The first point is that this reference was published March 15, so any of its quantitative discussion is outdated today. Also, it refers only to the city of Ottawa, Ontario.

Dr. Etches states that on Mar 15 there are 10 cases officially detected in Ottawa. She then says: "there could be from a couple of hundred to even a thousand cases of COVID-19 in the community" (presumably Ottawa). Comparing a "couple of hundred to even a thousand" to 10 seems to give the factor of "20 to 100". She gives no data basis for her speculation. It seems to me in context that she is not attempting any kind of a data study but merely throwing out arbitrary high numbers to scare people into taking precautions against the virus.

Certainly there are likely many more cases than officially reported. However any "what is the real number?" study has to be reasonably based; this Wiki quote, in my opinion, is not.

--2607:FEA8:55E0:837:3836:547A:87BB:8A5C (talk) 23:04, 16 May 2020 (UTC)